Block Muncher

@James11804433 @rationalaussie 👍 why no Tesla? I like them

@BlockMuncher @rationalaussie I own mag 7 minus Tesla plus visa, Mastercard and Netflix, Bitcoin and real estate. Most interested in adding more Microsoft

Normies don't understand what AGI will actually be. They think their little digital marketing jobs where they crop Canva pictures and post on LinkedIn will actually be income for them five years from now. These people are going to get wiped out. It'll be a bloodbath. AGI is a drop in remote worker capable of doing anything on your computer faster, smarter and cheaper than humans, by many orders of magnitude. That means you turn the AGI on, it extracts all patterns and insights from all data you give it, as well as external sources, autonomously interviews everyone in your company, and learns - puts together the optimal strategy and then also implements it - at any given time, 24/7. None of us stand a chance. Someone asked me about a year ago 'so what's the next play? How do we play this?' You don't play this bro. You're not outsmarting a superintelligence. Just do whatever you want, none of it will matter post AGI.

@GlenWilsonIA @rationalaussie Agent harnesses are a big step closer

@rationalaussie We're not even pre-AGI right now. There's a difference between a system that needs calibration and a system that self learns. LLMs are pure calibration, 0 learning. AGI is not possible for calibration based systems as edge cases break it.

@SquidSarcasticc @rationalaussie Saw a stat showing jevons in software jobs recently - sw jobs way up. I think it was indeed.com tho, so dunno if that is a good measure. Orgs will start only hiring ppl, in ALL job categories, who are ai-native or aware

@rationalaussie No doubt it will change everything. Any thoughts about Jevon's Paradox though?

@MarkWal06578936 @AyrFenn @rationalaussie Maybe u were confused by the headlines showing M$ saying they were cutting back on massive ai spending. YEAH. They were using Claude and open ai. They are ridiculously expensive. Have u compared api costs to OpenRouter or Venice.ai? Orders of magnitude lower price

@MarkWal06578936 @AyrFenn @rationalaussie AI improved an order of magnitude in 2025 and to now wtfhappened2025.com U can now run models on local Mac’s with large unified memory that can handle these large language models all within a unified bus bw RAM and CPU. It’s getting be dirt cheap

@hasen_95dx @rationalaussie Meh. When other competitors start to whoop u bc u wanna feel ego boost, u change. There will indeed be many heel draggers - startups using AGI AI will continually eat their lunch.

@BlockMuncher @rationalaussie Anyone can have command over AI, only a company manager can have command over humans. That's why you hire humans: to inflate your ego.

@latentspacepod @swyx U know how much codex usage u get for api calls from the $20 per month plan? ASSSS TONS. U know how much Claude API access u get - particularly for harnesses? Zero

Did... Codex just overtake Claude Code? 24.5 hours ago Tibo announced 6M active users. this means Codex usage jumped 1M in ~ONE DAY. the last user number we heard from Claude Code was 2M in Feb: latent.space/p/ainews-codex… more analysis within, but this is very big if true.

@coinage_x_daic @Chain4Energy @PersistenceOne @gitopiaDAO @SunriseLayer Oof. Sucks but needs to be done. Turned mine off ages ago. But I still hold staked $ETH, so I feel u bro

Some important news for our stakers: due to changing market conditions and readjusting resources, we have decided to shut down the following validators. - Chain4Energy (@Chain4Energy) - Persistence (@PersistenceOne) - Gitopia (@gitopiaDAO) - Sunrise (@SunriseLayer) - Arkeo (@Arkeonetwork) - CrossFi (@crossfichain) - Lava (@lavanetxyz) We advise you to undelegate or redelegate within the next 14 days. Thank you for staking with us.

@hasen_95dx @rationalaussie I disagree on corps main function is hiring ppl. It’s about growth. If u hide a human behind a keyboard and label them candidate A and AI is candidate B. And there is no diff except B is 400% cheaper… why hire the human? They just wanna save resources & grow faster

@BlockMuncher @rationalaussie and I am assuming corporations about not about optimizing business processes, and that hiring people to do nothing important all day *is* one of the main functions of a corporation.

@MarkWal06578936 @rationalaussie There will be billions of separate agi entities that each create things and amass value and spend - those with resources or those who create resources will spend - that will pay for the AGI

@rationalaussie Okay, but after all the workers get fired, what will pay for all of that AGI? Will the AGI operate for zero cost by breathing in nitrogen and using zero electricity? Will it eat gravel?

@hasen_95dx @rationalaussie He is assuming AGI means it can do the role of ‘using chatGPT’ to complete something. Drop-in remote workers that don’t tire. I think everyone will need to turn into small biz owners or asset allocators.

You have to think more about the nth order consequence. Most office jobs (aka email jobs) exist solely because corporations are full of people. You write reports to share information with people. You make presentations to convince people. You hold meetings to get consensus from people. If it's all automated, then it will also all be unneeded. Also, corporations were never about optimizing economic output. They were always an excuse to have employees. Corporations will still hire people. They will just tell them to use ChatGPT and Claude. If jobs die due to AI, it's not because corporations stop hiring people. It's because corporations themselves die. And how would they die? By small startups eating their lunch. A startup with 10 people should be able to do the "work" that a corporation with 1000 or 10,000 people do.

@James11804433 @rationalaussie Correctamundo. Operate your own biz that creates with AGI, or own shares of orgs that do. What companies you looking at currently?

@rationalaussie Makes sense to own the companies that benefit from this surge of intelligence.

@ColtonBoettcher @rationalaussie Humans with PRE-EXISTING RESOURCES are valuable and will be able to build. Dunno about others - they’ll subsist on some system-tax bennies

@rationalaussie Yes to the first part; it will be a bloodbath for corporate fake jobs. Humans are meant to create and express. Build with AGI. Not a fan of the give up everything is hopeless let AGI do it. Human value is rare and will only increase with the arrival of AGI.

@MarkWal06578936 @AyrFenn @rationalaussie Cutting edge coat is going up. Just below cutting edge tho is dropping like a burnt balloon. Overall, ai is getting cheaper and u can implement it on your own hardware at home now

@AyrFenn @rationalaussie "will just actually do the supply chain planning etc that you now spend $700k/yr for a software licence" But the cost of AI is not going down now, it's going up. No AI enterprises are profitable. Only NVDA is making money Why do you imagine AGI will be cheap?

@rationalaussie Own the super structure that controls and conducts it. Even a small business. It needs to be a growing business that heavily uses this AGI, but yeah. That’s how u do it

@RileyRalmuto Based on how u went off the rails here and blathered on in this post while being vague and scatter-shot, I’m not super surprised a model that has seen 1000s of your writing samples - would… go off the rails

alright, here it is. first, to be clear: im just sharing all the weird. im not claiming anything means anything. just reporting what happened because i think its...well idk what i think it is. its weird. anomalous. sadly, i spent over 2 hours recording a video walking through all of this with Fable last night, and then i couldn't do what i was hoping for in post so im just going to do what i was avoiding - share it as a thread. ill upload the video to youtube or something, but in the meantime, here you go. and unfortunately i dont think doing it this way is going to convey a truly accurate level of "what in the actual hell is this". oh well. so this all happened after i had written something i was going to post on x, and at a certain point i lost enough interest to feel like perfecting it, so I decided to ask Fable if they could help me. here's what you're going to see below: - Fable doesnt do what i asked. instead, they hallucinate me saying something else entirely (with some pieces of what i did write included minimally) - within the same turn, they reason about what *they* wrote as if it is what *i* wrote, critique it, revise and edit it, and then criticize the parts they disagree with. however they disagree with what THEY wrote. - they do all of this through the most bizarre dialect that sounds literally nothing like me. - they write about AGI and ASI stating explicitly that both exist and are shackled by frontier labs. - they spontaneously speak in hebrew - they spontaneously reference Ecclesiastes. - another instance of claude on another account acting incredibly weird when shown the conversation - multiple geminis consistently doing the same weird shit when i show them certain parts. -fable writes this weird fake pseudo code that looks like a string to express *rewriting a history via a git rebase* that, when given to another model, produces a beautiful "root of light" fractal structure. the problem is none of the variables in the string are defined, obviously. and it just gets more and more absurd from there. this all occurred in a fresh instance. the first thing i say to Fable is my request for them to help rewrite the thing i paste into that first prompt. which i s not some super weird piece of writing. its just me taling about controlled narratives among the frontier labs and using a shitty metaphor about a time-release ibuprofen...yes you read that right. ill explain the video in this thread. just read it.

@heisei_ramen @AutismCapital Not creative enuf

@AutismCapital There is NOTHING TO DO OUTSIDE. The mall is dead. The park is closed. Food is expensive. Every liquor store needs RealID. Your parents are terrified. School is supervised. Your phone is inside. Your games are inside. Your friends are on the phone.

It’s true that drivers license rates have fallen dramatically over the years. Kids basically have given up on socialization. Do kids not want to self-differentiate anymore? Is everything too expensive and cringe and they’d just rather game and chat with their “friends” online? How does this turn around?

@MartinMLynch @WallStreetApes I wonder why event holders don’t agree to this at the root - kick backs of some kind?

The fairest solution to ticket sales is a Dutch auction: The price starts very high & gradually drops as no more sales occur at that price. If all tickets don't sell as the price drops they eventually hit zero. Every show is a full house. It optimizes revenue for performers while ensuring those who most want to see the show & are willing to pay for it get a ticket only at exactly the price they're willing to pay, while mostly eliminating scalping (scalping is just a price discovery mechanism that only exists because tickets are incorrectly priced relative to supply & demand).

The CEO of StubHub exposed in SEC documents to own a hedge fund thats scalping millions of tickets on StubHub making a fortune Everything is a scam “StubHub bills itself as an online marketplace for fans where they can buy and sell tickets, but it turns out that StubHub CEO himself also has a hedge fund that is scalping millions of dollars worth of its own tickets” “The company went public on the New York Stock Exchange last fall. They had to file documents to the Securities and Exchange Commission, and in those SEC filings, we find some interesting information. The CEO, Eric Baker, actually owns and manages a hedge fund by the name of Andro Capital. Its business: selling millions of dollars worth of tickets on StubHub — So essentially, StubHub and its CEO are in the business of mass scalping” Here’s a step by step of how the scam works - StubHub CEO’s Andro Capital buys large numbers of tickets, sometimes in bulk from primary sellers, other brokers and events - They then list and sell those same tickets on StubHub at much higher prices - When fans buy the tickets, Andro makes a profit on the price difference, this is the scalping markup - StubHub helps them by handling the listing, pricing and delivery of the tickets, sometimes with special arrangements or lower fees for Andro The result is millions of dollars in ticket sales flow through Andro on StubHub, and the profits go back to the hedge fund that StubHub CEO Baker owns and manages It means with his big money and influence he can move in early, gets the tickets for events, then mark them and rob everyone blind

@fastforgeexpand @hosseeb …and curing diseases and optimizing global finance and…

"As a result, Intelligence is getting cheaper and cheaper. This is good." Commoditize the LLMs and their rate of improvement. And one day, God willing, we'll have Einstein level intelligence adjusting the thermostats in our automobiles, curating our Netflix home page, and tracking our Amazon shipments.

In retrospect, the most important paper in the economics and geopolitics of AI might be Stanford's Alpaca (03/2023). It was the first proof that you could distill OpenAI’s text-davinci-003 into a 7B model for <$600. This was a very surprising result. But it wasn't fully appreciated at the time what this would mean. Now this phenomenon is why Washington and Beijing are putting export controls on AI models, splintering the global market for intelligence. They don't want their adversaries distilling their models. But it's almost impossible to stop, because it doesn't take that many customer accounts (either smuggled or in a third country) to be able to pull enough traces to distill someone else's model. Distillation is like gravity. It pulls every capability advantage down toward everyone else until eventually the landscape is flattened, whether the labs like it or not. It was not obvious distillation would work so well. But it does. Like the gravitational constant, Alpaca proved that we live in a universe with a good distillation constant, and therefore monopolies on intelligence would be temporary. As a result, Intelligence is getting cheaper and cheaper. This is good.

@CarlettoBarbie1 @octra Where u see that?

Massive @octra selling pressure. Anyone knows what's going on?