Ayr Fenn

@Larryjamieson_ Every week there seems to be some revelation of “how the fk is that even a thing” with our welfare system

looooooooooooooooooooool

@GergelyOrosz @levie Expect all the big tech vendors to pivot their solution consulting / presales teams towards this. What exactly is a "demo" with agentic AI? It'll be analysing and aligning business processes / workflows to agents along with data governance /access etc

This is a VERY good take and observation from @levie It feels to me that FDE roles could be replacing what were consultant / solutions architect & similar roles 2010-2022 (where many many new grads and early career devs were hired)

@bowtiedstocks Drop in credit issuance / loan asset growth at the Big 4 due to NG removal bigger issue than realised I suspect

Probably not a bad time to short $CBA.AX Commonwealth Bank right now Everyone considered their look through exposure to the most expensive bank on the planet?

@hutcho66 @retrobike_c16 Yeah it was a sliding scale before that went up the older you were. It’s an insane take. Which cohort would be soaking up the vast bulk of benefits from PHI as compared to the younger gen underwriting them in any case?

@retrobike_c16 There's actually not even a removal of the rebate. They just reduced the rebate for over 65s back to the same level as under 65s. The actual $ amount of the rebate for over 65s is still going to be higher because their premiums are higher!

More boomer whining Many of the people on the pension are NOT poor. Thats the fucking problem. The bastards think they are entitled to it regardless of wealth

@AvidCommentator Yeah, calcs I’ve seen for IP borrowing everything else equal seems to be a ~30% to ~40% reduction

Impact of negative gearing change to borrowing capacity as told by a mortgage broker. Income: $250k PPOR Value: $1.13m Mortgage: $640k Investment property borrowing capacity: Pre-changes: $964k to $1.015m Post: $712k to $722k Source: facebook.com/share/p/1C5m7L…

@AvidCommentator Yeah - was thinking today I really wouldn’t want to be a holiday let or buyers agent in a regional holiday town now, expect it to be tough going flipping existing places.

Seeing some property spruikers selling the negatively geared path to riches clutching at straws today. My theory is the blow to investor demand for existing homes is going to be greater than anticipated.

@Potstirrer111 So buying IP stock is less appealing. Which weighs on prices, which obviates a large reason for even having an IP which has been all about capital growth

One legit thing that hasn’t been discussed with new investors buying existing housing stock. They may try to get crazy rents to cover the losses if not having negative gearing anymore BUT now they risk their property sitting empty and not being rented AND they can’t claim any losses anymore at all! So they’ll be twice as fucked. Thoughts @AvidCommentator

@Burchell_Wilson No but they’ll just point at the $37B number whenever asked as a the forecast. Meanwhile yesterdays budget tax measures are to keep the treasure chest full for these vote buying programs

Does anyone really believe the government is going to realize $37.8 billion in forecast savings from the NDIS over the next four years? Seriously, where is the detail about how these Treasury-massaged "savings" are actually realized? #JimChalmers #Budget #NDIS

@NoelWhittaker Do you mean the younger gen locked out of any and every asset class, or the “victims” sitting on 2,000% property gains flying Qantas Prem Economy 3x / year

Remember, intergenerational inequality is a social construct invented by Labor to give them another class of victims to help

@Potstirrer111 Outer suburban metro "property chat" FB groups are going to something else tonight

The property investor cucks are not happy Lol.

Same thing in Big 4 firms both audit and consulting. Double the time to make partner over past 20 years, much higher attrition rate throughout that path, to find yourself as salaried not equity partner (third the pay of equity). But with equity partner revenue targets yet smaller teams. Now the firms are just cutting partners as a streamlining strategy - much easier to do admin wise as they aren’t technically employees. Will just accelerate with AI as whole practice areas are going to get blown up. For 90% of people who get there, a run of the mill mid-senior corp role ultimately much lower stress and overall better $ across the time taken to slog to partner once you throw in RSUs in many sectors.

Everyone in finance should be thinking long and hard about this. There’s fewer seats at the top and not everyone makes MD or PM.

Someone said “Baby Boomers did that thing where you leave a single square of toilet paper on the roll and pretend it’s not your turn to change it, but with a whole society” and now I can’t stop thinking about it.

@SpachusAus Going to be interesting as to the reaction to the "impossible" changes to "sure thing, untouchable" property tax settings. Everything's always a sure thing, until it isn't.

Tomorrow’s budget announcement could be a major moment for Australia’s housing market. All eyes are on potential changes to negative gearing and Capital Gains Tax (CGT). If the rumours are true, what impact could this have on investor activity, property prices, rental supply, and affordability? #auspol #property #housingmarket #realestate

@samstrades @_warrenhogan @AntipodeanMacro Even then, people are using NG for the capital growth - if new buyers dont receive the ebenfits and prices plummet, whats even the point of holding despite grandfathering?

@_warrenhogan @AntipodeanMacro the values will also plummet as new buyers won't have the tax advantages anymore, so they won't pay what sellers are asking, grandfathering is only to avoid a complete market meltdown

AFR reporting...

Worth reading Philip K Dick’s Man In the Castle. Premise is “what if the Nazis and Japanese Empire won WW2”. In the book it’s said the Nazis control Europe, Africa and US Eastern seaboard. It’s basically implied though that all of Africa was “chemically cleansed” ie everyone exterminated. Something to ponder.

The Aboriginal vote should be 100% right wing. It is our failure that it isn't. But, Aboriginals need to realise that once White Australians are a minority the Indians and Chinese are not going to give a single f--k about their issues, only white people care about these things.

@ctindale @AUSC0M World wars - it’s in the name We already have some fronts bubbling away, one seems to be added every few quarters.

@AUSC0M The whole world’s gonna be the battleground it’s already is this idea that it’s gonna be isolated to some region for some reason ignores the reality of what’s already going on

If I was a leader in SEA, I’d be more worried about the build up of US assets in the region, slowly but surely painting SEA as the battleground for WW3. They should reject American imperialism and work with China (and China with them) for peace and stability.

@MrQuick_ Anyone with even a remotely serious corporate role yet a refusal to play part in the investment property ponzi has been aware of the Laffer Curve for quite some time.

Aussies are about to get an education in the “Laffer Curve”

CGT changes are nothing but addressing inter generational inequality. They’re a tax grab through-and-through. Why? Labor have realised they only need to keep the vote buying via scam-schemes like the NDIS & open slather immigration to appeal to certain ethnic groups for at most two more Fed election cycles until they have a perpetual majority and can do whatever they please. It’s not a strategy, it’s a race.

Been offline for a few days. A few comments: 1. The Australian government is digging their own grave with these CGT discount changes. 2. The One Nation by-election win is a harbinger of a trend just finally beginning in Australia. It's the beginning of 'the big one' - when ordinary Australians finally decide they have had enough of both corrupt, slimy slides of 'mainstream politics' (as Albo calls them) and kick them to the curb where they belong. 3. 1 will propel 2, because business interests in this country have largely been silent on mass migration due to the stigma associated with publicly being against it, but they will not remain silent when the thing they care about most is jeopardised: money Australia punches above its weight intellectually. We are a small population but we do genuinely have some smart people here. It's just that they largely all leave and go to America, where they are not treated like shit and don't have their wealth stolen from them by a corrupt government who then allocates the stolen capital into things that benefit themselves. It is incumbent on all Australians to call out just how corrupt this government is - and really now, every Australian government for the past two decades. We are long past the point of platitudes and friendly suggestions. These people must be removed from office. They are incompetent, they lack integrity, they have no right to be telling hardworking Australians how to live their lives, and they certainly have no right to steal 50% of your money for starting a successful business - only to then allocate that capital into fraudulent schemes like the NDIS. The audacity of this government to say that removing the CGT discount is about intergenerational equity is disgusting. Yeah @AlboMP please explain to everyone how removing the discounts your boomer generation voted for and used to pump the living shit out of your non-productive property portfolios, and which now the next generation can't even use to be incentivised to start a BUSINESS (not even buying/selling property or shares), is 'equitable'. What a lying retard this bloke is. He has zero understanding of economics. The absolute audacity to do this, after using taxpayer's funds to subsidise demand into the housing market to inflate their dogshit properties supposedly worth millions of Pacific Pesos, is insane. It's the type of immoral shit that could only possibly be dished out by a bloke who has taken from the public his entire life. Not a single private sector role. Truly pathetic shit. We need a referendum to exclude any person who has not served a decade in the private sector from public office. These people could not be entrusted to run a local pie shop let alone a country. The funny thing about all of this is the boomers have sewn the seeds for a truly radical person a decade from now to literally just steal all their shit. That's the mood they have created. No one will give a shit. They will remember who stole from them. 'You steal my opportunity? Okay, I will remember that a decade from now when we have power, and steal every last cent back' - this is the political environment we are heading towards over the next several years. Things are going to get very extreme... Best analogy is Germany 1930s. Australians deserve better, and One Nation is the beginning of that, not the end.

@WomanDefiner 2001 & 9/11 -> 2008 was just the first few tries at papering over problems by juicing things like housing falling over, it’s just been a series of those to date underpinned by constant lowering of Interest rates until we get to the current point.

It was probably 9/11 in 2001 or the financial collapse of 2008 or both. Some people will tell you its around 2010-2013 but we were already sliding by then, it just wasn't as noticeable.

@bowtiedstocks No, its another reason to udnercook the CPI figures released so they collect tax on the delta between reported CPI, true inflation and as well as real growth

What many people are overlooking with these purported CGT changes Is that inflation is running so hot due to govt fiscal policy That going back to indexation may result in less tax revenue collected Hope you got a good wheelbarrow™️