@BadOptics4U @AdamKinzinger Badoptics, Are you proposing a ground invasion of Iran? Because that is what it will take. And 2 MEU plus elements of the 82nd and SF are not enough.
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DonnishBookworm
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DonnishBookworm
@BookwormDonnish
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Katılım Ocak 2021
13 Takip Edilen35 Takipçiler
@AdamKinzinger For once I agree with you. Finish the job, remove their regime. Exile or martyrdom. The only choices warmongering Clerics and IRGC should have.
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Good lord.
Assuming there are no more attacks by the US, and Trump seems dead set opposed to resuming them, this is nothing short of a failure.
Yes Iran has fewer weapons now. So do we. Their regime is still in place and the nuke material hasn’t moved.
The spin from the administration is offensive in how blatantly false it is.
He went into this without the determination to win
Republicans against Trump@RpsAgainstTrump
“Unprecedented destruction” Majority of U.S. military sites in the Middle East damaged by Iran, CNN investigation reveals. Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth desperately tried to keep the extent of the damage from the public so people wouldn’t see how badly this was botched. Now the images are coming out and they’re disturbing.
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@SPDR538 @IAPonomarenko SPDR, And the US is not a party to this war. The US national interest is to support Ukraine. The US national interest is in a strong NATO and vibrant European Union that included Ukraine.
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@IAPonomarenko The ambassador is supposed to represent U.S. interests, not Ukrainian interests. We have no interest nor imperative, moral or otherwise, to be a party to the war.
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I still can’t stop thinking about this -- what kind of demonic insanity so hostile to basic common sense and human moral principles must be demanded and enforced as “policy” for a SECOND (!!) U.S. ambassador to Ukraine in a single year (!!) to choose to resign and effectively end their diplomatic career rather than be associated with what Donald Trump is doing toward Ukraine.
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@Cecilia26251499 @IAPonomarenko Cecilia, Actually, you didn't give 300 billion. Most of the money appropriated by Congress was spent in the USA to produce new weapons whilst Ukraine got outdated weapons valued at replacement (not depreciated) cost.
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@IAPonomarenko When did we become beholden to Ukraine? We already gave $300 billion dollars ingrate.
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@kremmerpeter @citrinowicz Peter, The point is that this war was not properly thought through from a strategic point of view.Looking down the road, the possible solutions are:A) reopening the Strait under Iranian control w/US withdrawl from the region, or B)US-led ground invasion of Iran. What is option C?
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@citrinowicz We all understand your point:
'Iran wont surrender whatever happens and they are effective in "asymmetric warfare". (ie. terror)'
OK
So what is your solution? Let the Iranian regime do whatever they want, because we can't do anything about them anyway? 🤷♂️
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As the Houthis have already demonstrated, you don’t need physical control on the ground to shut down strategic waterways.
Advanced missile capabilities and drones alone are enough to disrupt and even effectively block key maritime chokepoints, regardless of whether there is a full military takeover.
Iran not only possesses a sophisticated array of these capabilities, but also the command-and-control systems needed to operate them effectively.
Geography, especially in a complex and narrow chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, is not something you can simply overcome. Iran’s military doctrine has long been built around asymmetric warfare.
Anyone who believes that sinking a few converted commercial vessels, even ones repurposed as a "drones carriers", would “reopen” Hormuz fundamentally misunderstands Iran’s strategic security doctrine.
More importantly, once the new
leader, Mojtaba, has identified the Strait as a core Iranian national interest, it will be defended with the same priority as Iran’s missile program or nuclear ambitions.
Whether people want to dismiss it
or not, some have clearly failed to internalize the lessons of recent conflicts and just how deeply the issue of Hormuz is embedded in the current regime’s thinking.
At this point, there is no real way
back. That’s what makes this situation so problematic, especially given the growing recognition that any military solution would be extraordinarily complex.
#iran
Mohammad Ali Shabani@mashabani
Beyond its mines, speedboats and array of anti-ship missiles, the "real" means of maritime disruption in Iran's possession is an arsenal of advanced marine drones. Informed Iranian sources privately say the mines are old technology in comparison. This is to say nothing about the possibility of both Hormuz and Bab El-Mandeb being shut down. Underestimating Iranian capabilities is what got Trump into this mess. Repeating that behavior would be another mistake. PS. The world's largest militaries, including the US and Russia, reportedly have military dolphins.
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@stumblebum54 @RadioFreeTom Stumblebum, FYI, "Secretary of War" is a fake title.
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@RadioFreeTom Imagine a lowly staff writer at the Atlantic (of all effing places) believing they have a better understanding of national military strategy and policy than the duly appointed and Congressionally-approved Secretary of War.
Weird.
And unbelievably arrogant.
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No strategy. No rational purpose. Pure idiocy.
Phil Stewart@phildstewart
BREAKING - HEGSETH ORDERS WITHDRAWAL OF 5,000 TROOPS FROM GERMANY, TO BE COMPLETED OVER NEXT SIX TO 12 MONTHS
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@JoyceWhiteVance How can the 5th Cir issue a nationwide injunction to stop the mail? Why does the order apply nationwide rather than only in the state of Louisiana?
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And of course it’s the fifth circuit that decides for women everywhere in the country, Mifepristone no longer available unless you can pick it up in person. Reminder: in Dobbs, the court said this should be up to each state. That’s not what this does. washingtonpost.com/health/2026/05…
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👏 👏 👏 impressive track record 🙄
Joni Askola@joni_askola
Elbridge Colby has done catastrophic damage to US projection, leverage, and reputation. His policy managed the impossible: doing everything to abandon Ukraine while completely failing to actually pivot to Asia. A masterclass in destroying US influence
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@PhillipsPOBrien Will the EU respond?
And perhaps Iran understands this point better than Europeans? That may be why Iran will not give Trump a deal that he will portray as a humiliating victory over Iran and then break the deal whenever it suits him?
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This is why the EU and the UK were foolish to accept unequal trade deals with Trump. Any deal he signs is meaningless.
David Henig 🇺🇦@DavidHenigUK
Your regular reminder that no trade deal with President Trump can be considered permanent, and it might not even last the day.
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@stopheathrow @citrinowicz Spot Heathrow, What you are proposing is a major ground invasion of Iran. What country is going to take the lead in doing that?
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@citrinowicz The U.S. should OBVIOUSLY finish the job. @citrinowicz have you ever dropped a job after the first 15% was done? Was it a good idea? What happened then? So obvious that FINISHING WHAT YOU START is the ONLY WAY!!
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After such a complex campaign, there is one thing we must avoid: falling back on slogans that lack real operational meaning.
“Finish the job,” “deliver a decisive blow,” “hit them so hard they’ll surrender at the negotiating table” — these are empty phrases. Recent conflicts have already shown that there is no practical capability to translate them into reality.
Iran is not going to surrender. The regime is not going to collapse soon. And any large-scale military move will only deepen global economic strain.
Statements like “we’ll dismantle the Iranian axis militarily” are especially problematic. They set objectives that simply cannot be achieved, meaning any military campaign built around them is set up to fail from the outset.
There is no “decisive blow” against Iran. Even a severe attacks against the regime would not “finish the job” but it would almost certainly provoke a much harsher Iranian response.
The urge to simplify the situation is understandable. But it doesn’t align with the reality we’ve just experienced on the battlefield in the current warfare.
Most importantly, it creates expectations that inevitably lead to deep disappointment, a gap between what may be a highly successful military operation on the tactical level and the far more ambitious strategic goals that were never realistically achievable in the first place.
#IranWar
Financial Times@FT
US should ‘finish the job’ if Iran does not yield, says Lindsey Graham ft.trib.al/f1RyYHY
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@SlowLaneLodge @general_ben Slow, Simple answer: Europe can defend itself. Europe doesn't need America and America's defense industry. Go home.
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@general_ben No one has been able to answer this one question: Why can't Europe defend itself?
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This short-sighted decision will not hurt Germany. It only hurts us. It does nothing to protect our strategic interests overseas. We cannot defend America from TX or GA or NC. We need forward friends and forward access.
Nick Sortor@nicksortor
🚨 BREAKING — IT’S OFFICIAL: President Trump is WITHDRAWING 5,000 US TROOPS from Germany after Chancellor Merz criticized 47’s Iran operation Good! Tell NATO to take care of themselves. We don’t need them. BRING OUR TROOPS HOME!
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@dn12179 @SlowLaneLodge @general_ben Slow, J113, Go ahead, pull out of NATO. Close your damn bases. Ramstein, Aviano, Lakenheath etc. No more refueling, supply, or mil hospitals. No port for 5th fleet. No early warning from Canada or Denmark's Greenland. End 5 eyes while you are at it. We in Europe are sick of you.
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@SlowLaneLodge @general_ben Because they are spoiled. For decades, they have enjoyed the protection of the US and they don't want the responsibility.
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@RadioFreeTom @citrinowicz writes: "and that the Iranian street is perhaps the regime's only real threat, but also the arena that is hardest to activate from the outside."
Is the "Iranian street" the CoG of Iran? If so, what does that say about mil ops in this war?
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This is how he thought Iran was going to go
The Bulwark@BulwarkOnline
Trump: "Cuba, which we will be taking over almost immediately. No, Cuba's got problems…On the way back from Iran we'll have one of our big, maybe the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, come in, stop about 100 yards offshore and they'll say, 'Thank you very much, we give up.'"
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@BartDePalma @citrinowicz Bart, Air campaign with what? US already used up large stocks of stand-off munitions not to mention air defense missiles from Iranian counterattacks. Also, US does not want to risk PoWs from shot down aircraft.
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@citrinowicz Delaying tactics to buy time. Iran refuses to stop their proxy wars and nuclear program. Restart the air campaign and end this.
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The problem is not the cohesion or stability of the Iranian regime. If anything, recent developments show the opposite since they were able to produce, within a short time, multiple proposals aimed at breaking the negotiating deadlock.
The real issue lies in the regime’s positions, not its internal decision-making process. And the reason is simple: Iran believes it emerged from the conflict in a position of strength.
As long as the administration focuses on how decisions are made in Tehran, rather than on the strategic reality shaping those decisions, it will continue to misread the situation.
Iran is not coming to the table under pressure to concede its core positions, it is negotiating from what it perceives as leverage.
Under these conditions, the deadlock will persist. And the United States will be left with a narrowing set of increasingly bad options.
#iran
OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical
Trump says that he’s not sure a deal with Iran will ever be made. “The leadership is very disjointed, it’s got 2 to 3 groups, maybe 4”
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@MechaJefferson @citrinowicz Mecha TJ, You live in a fantasy world. The blockade will not lead to regime collapse. That would require a ground invasion, which would require much more than 2 MEU plus elements of the 82nd and SF.
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@citrinowicz You guys are all making a simple thind needlessly complicated. It goes like this:
Uphold the blockade until the Iranian government falls. Pay the high prices for a month or two. Send in the Shah to form a new transitional government. Never negotiate with those terrorists again.
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@citrinowicz Military escalation how? I read that Centcom has prepared a plan, but w/what assets and risks given: a) Trump does not want PoWs from aircraft shot down, and b) credible reports of significant usage of US stand off munitions and air defense. F35s dropping glide bombs?
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At this point, the administration is left with two main options, neither of them good.
The first is military escalation. But no one can confidently predict the broader consequences, especially for the global economy. And even then, it is unlikely to produce decisive results or bring down the regime.
The second is a negotiated agreement, one that would require the administration to make significant concessions.
Meanwhile, economic pressure alone is unlikely to deliver the outcomes President Trump expects, certainly not within the promised timeframe.
In effect, the administration has maneuvered itself into a position where all available options are problematic. And inaction is not a neutral choice since with each passing day, the economical damage is mounting.
#IranWar
Barak Ravid@BarakRavid
What's next: "There are options. Do we want to go and just blast the hell out of them and finish them forever or do we want to try and make a deal. Those are the options," Trump said
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@StrickerNonpro Andrea, You are wrongly portraying the JCPOA as an "Obama Democrat(ic) Party Deal." Rather, the JCPOA was agreed to by the P5 plus Germany and the EU. And it was working. After Trump tore it up, Iran stopped complying and how has 11 tons of enriched uranium incl 440 kilos HEU.
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1. If your assumptions about Tehran becoming more extreme after JCPOA withdrawal are correct, then the JCPOA was the original sin as the architecture the United States needed to shed, reached by one party without bipartisan buy-in.
The regime has always been ultra-hardline. It was a myth that moderates could be empowered versus hardliners, when the hardliners control policy. Instead, hardliners empower less hardline front men to broker policy at their bidding.
2. Iran is not "closer to a nuclear weapon" now by any means. Prior to the strikes, they were about six months from a crude device with enough enriched uranium for 22 nuclear weapons, if further enriched to weapons-grade.
Today, they are likely 2.5 years away, absent significant foreign assistance. HEU stocks buried, enrichment plants destroyed, weaponization pathway decimated, key scientists assassinated.
3. Only the full, permanent and verifiable disarmament of the regime's nuclear weapons pathway and remaining nuclear assets will resolve the issue, whether that is achieved diplomatically or through the regime's eventual overthrow.
Trump has so far indicated he understands this.
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش@citrinowicz
Today, Iran is ruled by an ultra-hardline regime that possesses close to a ton of enriched uranium including roughly 440 kilograms enriched to 60%. We have now seen firsthand that there is no purely kinetic (military) solution to this problem. This reality is a direct result of the belief that Iran’s nuclear program could be eliminated through force alone. Had Iran remained in the nuclear agreement, many second-order effects, impossible to fully quantify, might have unfolded: the strengthening of more pragmatic political elements, greater engagement with the West, and internal dynamics moving in a different direction. Instead, the withdrawal from the deal led us to the opposite outcome: a more extreme regime, far closer to a nuclear weapon, operating with reduced oversight and fewer constraints, and with a much shorter path to weapons-grade enrichment. This is the reality we face today. And it is the strategic failure that followed the decision to leave the agreement. The most striking conclusion, however, is this: if the goal is to push Iran back into a framework that includes reducing or removing its enriched uranium stockpile and restoring meaningful oversight, we will have to return to the same basic logic of the original nuclear deal, meaning limits on the program in exchange for economic relief. There is no alternative mechanism that has proven viable. The past 39 days of conflict have made that reality unmistakably clear: military force can disrupt, delay, and degrade, but it cannot replace a diplomatic framework when it comes to controlling and rolling back a nuclear program of this scale. Therefore, the decision to withdraw from the nuclear agreement stands as one of the most consequential strategic mistakes in the campaign against Iran. Its effects are not theoretical, they are the reality we are living with today. And they will continue to shape the security landscape, with costs that are not only ongoing, but likely to grow in the years ahead. #IranWar
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@RonFilipkowski I get that point. But aren't you worried about Platner? He has no record. If he ran for the Maine state house, fine-but the Senate?
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I can assure you that people in Maine don’t give a shit about what anyone outside Maine thinks about their candidates for office. Pontificate all you want, but don’t think it will have any impact at all on the actual voting.
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@michaeldweiss To isolate China and Russia, why not maintain, build, renew and grow alliances? EU, NATO, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand is over 60 percent of GDP and hasn't even touched the potential for alliance building in Latin America, Asia and Africa.
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Cannot begin to tell you how many Orbanistas told me in Budapest being nice to Russia was the only way to isolate China… archive.ph/zaCyU
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@Timodc Yes. Also worried about Platner in Maine.Even if Dems take Congress and impeach Trump, Fetterman and Platner could easily vote w/Reps to keep him in power. But does Fetterman plan to run in 28? Only thing that keeps him a Dem is Rep losses in PA House elections. @TheRickWilson
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Are YOU Prepared for the Fetterman Contingency?
JVL posits that the Democrats actually need to pick up 5 Senate seats bc Fetterman could flip and keep Thune in power if its only 4.
thebulwark.com/p/are-you-prep…
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@RadioFreeTom Ok, so what is Iran's CoG? Enquiring minds would like to know!
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Fair! But I’m more concerned that the secretary seems baffled by the concept, and the CJCS thinks it’s a political decision. I too have some reservations about CoG analysis, but CoG is a real thing.
Tim 🦬@tjm585
Just because the Chairman or SECWAR did not articulate what the center(s) of gravity were does not mean that he couldn't. In an open forum, I am not sure that I would articulate what an adversary's COG would be.
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