How do you explain efficient market hypothesis with an entire stock market of Japan moving down 11% then back up 10% in two trading days. Explain that to DCF calculation investors.
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BowTiedBrain
513 posts
BowTiedBrain
@BowTiedBrain
Chief Autist - DeFi Substack. Are You Pondering What I'm Pondering? BANKS ARE ZEROS. https://t.co/mqz7uAreLh
DeGen Island Bunker 2035 Katılım Mayıs 2021
40 Takip Edilen6.7K Takipçiler
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@ericzalusky @BowTiedBull @BowTiedBrain Same. Before I found the @BowTiedBull I was just holding spot in a wallet for years.
@BowTiedBrain helped me take it up a notch by getting into the active gold farms
Had a ton of fun hanging out on D1 with you @ericzalusky. (PS I am Bowtied_Otter on there)
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@BowTiedBull and @BowTiedBrain you were my introduction to crypto a few years ago. This was my first farm. Nothing but gratitude.
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@punk9059 Praying to all Gods from every religion, since i am not smart enough to know which one to pray to, that you are correct
Assuming at least half is liquid that is enormous
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New gold estimate after the final distribution: $7.35/gold.
🪙🥇🪙🥇🪙🥇
This is a tiny revision from $7.36 🤏
Why? Distro #5 had 104k more gold than distro #4.
No longer conservative: Last time I said $7.36 was conservative. I no longer think that's the case, because markets are down pretty bad.
$ARB is down to $9.4bn FDV, $OP to $9bn FDV, so a $10bn FDV estimate for Blast is clearly less conservative than it used to be.
This estimate also assumes there are no surprise gold awards or gifts ahead of TGE. I have no reason to think there will be, but there have been surprises in the past.
My supply estimate should be seen as a floor amount.
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BowTiedBrain retweetledi
you can now text 100+ tokens on @base to anyone, anywhere
thanks @CoinbaseWallet for kicking off onchain summer
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@punk9059 If you're anywhere near close to correct on gold value i'll be the happiest person on this entire planet and galaxy!
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Just in case my gold targets have confused people --- gold will not be tradable (unless something entirely unforeseen happens).
Gold will convert to $BLAST which will be tradable.
My estimates are all just guessing how much each current gold will have been worth in USD once gold gets converted to $BLAST and $BLAST gets converted to USDC or whatever.
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Bro you just gave a 2 weeks to 5 month time frame after not being able to figure out "what does a delay mean".
Go ahead and send the resume to buzzfeed
James Seyffart@JSeyff
@PhoenixTrades_ @EricBalchunas Going to add here. Typically this process takes months. Like up to 5 months in some examples but @EricBalchunas and I think this will be at least somewhat accelerated. #Bitcoin ETFs were at least 90 days. Will know more soon.
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BowTiedBrain retweetledi
"we need more time to copy paste the same rejection letter and change the name"
Just BS.
ChexMixTape | BLASTR@ChexMixTape
@BowTiedBrain Exactly! Why would you need 6 more hours to deny? They are crossing Ts and dotting Is
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@JSeyff What anticipation, by delaying it means approved. If you were going to deny you would have just said that instead.
There is nothing to anticipate anymore.
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I'm imagining the SEC staff are all gathered around in some room and are just laughing as they let the anticipation build up
GIF
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@dick_desirer @EricBalchunas He says "while not confirmed" which is absurd.
If there is a delay it means 100% sure it is approved. Not complicated. Therefore there was no reason to say "Update there is no update"
The update is obvious: approved.
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UPDATE: there is no update yet. We waiting to hear something. Saw two dif ppl on here claiming it is delayed (without saying their source) till later tonight, but we can't confirm this with anyone yet. That's all we know rn. @JSeyff
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@EricBalchunas If you were going to deny all of them why would you need to delay?
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While not confirmed, a little delay isn't that crazy considering Trading & Markets was told 11th hour themselves. (we think it's poss they even had rejection letters prepared). So poss they need to finish writing it. That said, everything we've heard says it will be approved.
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@iamluckyttinio oh i prob messed up then sorry dude it happens
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@BowTiedBrain YET you call me LIAR? i have screenshot. my question is very clear
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We really listened to the alma matter of College of New Jersey
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@ZachLight16 It's not really a take just telling you what buyside thinks. If EPS explodes up on high volume then multiple likely stays here so it goes up. Hence you are correct with seeing correlation to btc and coin movement.
Old guys view this as deep cyclical
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@BowTiedBrain I don't agree with this take. How do you explain 35-50$ price in 2022 (when I bought most of my bags..) if cycle is so expected?
Also even if "deep cyclical stock" thesis is true do you think $ETH and $BTC will go back to 2022 prices? what if we pump 2017/2021 style?
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@ChadBrogrammer not even close can't solve this thing
The 1M points equals $100 seems impossible since that means top 20 gets $100,000,000 just on points
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@punk9059 I gave up solving this. If 1million points is around $100 at today's numbers that means the top 20 guys are getting $100,000,000 just on points
Doesn't make sense to me but i am mentally challenged and a cartoon online
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Correcting a prior post, which means your points are likely worth more than I said 😑😖🥳 (I'm not happy I got it wrong but happy your points are worth more)
After increasing my 12x multiplier to 14x, my ratio did not change, which means I likely had a misunderstanding in, thinking that your ratio presents a number adjusted for your multiplier. It does not appear to.
Soo......
If you have a 12x multiplier, 1,000,000 points should be worth $112 and not $56.
If you have a 14x multiplier, 1,000,000 points should be worth $96 and not $56.
There is a lot about the communication around this ratio that I haven't found clear but hopefully it's now dialed in.
I truly hate to get these reads wrong, but also know people use the numbers I provide so wanted to correct it as soon as I noticed the likely miss.
Stats@punk9059
The "points-to-gold-ratio" on the Blast website has changed to about 107,000x vs the prior 36,000x. The new ratio makes a bit more sense than the last one. TLDR: Based on this ratio and my $6/gold estimate: 1,000,000 current points would be worth ~$56 if you have a 12x multiplier on. Disclaimer: I know nothing & my gold estimate is very rough and has changed frequently. It is based on (a) an 80% increase in gold in the next month (b) a $10bn FDV at launch (c) 6% of supply going to gold at TGE. These are all guesses based on our limited information. ------------------------------------- Long version: 1) Points reward capital on Blast. Gold rewards activity on Blast (interacting with projects/dapps). 2) Earning points is straight-forward: the more money you have on Blast for longer, the more points you get. Simple. 3) Points are going to get half the Blast-farmer airdrop. I guesstimate that will be 6% of total supply to points. 4) Multipliers complicate the math but they're not that very relevant. 5) What is the purpose of multipliers? They give Blast a tool to get users to try things Blast wants you to try. 6) Why aren't they relevant? Cause they are retroactive & extremely easy to earn, so everyone should get all the multipliers. And if you give them to everyone, you give them to no one. 7) So multipliers have zero impact? Well, multipliers will dilute the living hell out of anyone who is paying zero attention. It will allocate 96% of their points to everyone else. I imagine that group will be small. 8) My sense based on my wallet's gold-to-points ratio is that the 107,000x ratio they just gave us is about right. It would get us to about $56/1,000,000 points. 9) Two unknowns: A) does their ratio account for our current multipliers (I think so) and B) is it forward-looking for future gold and points inflation, since gold is inflating faster than points (I think so but not sure). 10) They have no control over ETH/USDB bridging on and off so there's no way it can be exact, even if gold & points inflation + multipliers are all dialed in. 11) Did this ratio change dilute my points? No. This was just the math catching up with itself. It had been way off. The only thing that would technically dilute your points would be a lot more ETH/USDB bridging to Blast or not doing the multipliers. there's also a whole treasure chest thing but I wont get into that cause this post is already too long and it doesn't matter for 99% of people.
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