Darren Boyer

@KeithMcCullough @HedgeyeFIG @HedgeyeTV it was very easy to understand where pypl stood after that short clear message.

Steiner @HedgeyeFIG just explained why $PYPL is a shitty management team that failed and remains a Core Short The Call @HedgeyeTV

@alshfaw thanks for posting

$SPY Forecast for Tomorrow Thursday 12/04/25. 1) Full moon day, reversals likely. 2) Today's price action was a replica of yesterday's with the difference being the ending point, see picture. Gap downs at open to trap bears, go higher, yesterday the price ended at midpoint, doji, today higher than the opening point. See two red ellipses. Both were ending triangles with the price dropping at the end of the triangle. 3) Please refer to my 0.3% wall piercing thesis on $SVIX. The volatility review post. 4) For this 0.3 thesis to hold, the SPY must give back all of the price extension from today. If you are in puts and you have time, this thesis will pay you tomorrow. 5) Meaning ES Mini price < $6830 is the bearish case for a turncated Wave 5 / larger Ending Diagonal. Stay above this price, or close above $6875 is bullish continuation, and the 0.3% fakeout wall piercing thesis is invalidated and the ending diagonal is dead. With bullish continuation, the target for the wave 5 impulse is $688 to $690 then failure there, and we start a viscious Wave II corrective, it will be ugly. This can start from tomorrow, if the ED is truncated here with today's Kiss-and-Fail at the wall thesis. 6) Please note the close today was below the resistance wall and lorgarthmic locus center, it did kiss it, and close below it. This the only good thing going for the bears today, the close just below. $SVIX however is still in divergence above the wal. 7) The market is in transition at the boundary, there is massive upside and downside risk for both bulls and bears, none is safe at this level. My personal bias is to the downside, but you do you and follow the price action only. Let the price be they shepherd. If you do not know what you are doing, stay in cash until after Powell's, by then the market will have found a final direction away from the current risky structure. Share & Subscribe, <>: $SPY $QQQ $IWM $MDY $RUT $DIA $SDOW $SOXX $SOXS $SMH $NVDA $TSLA $YINN $VIX $VXX $TLT $BTC $GLD $SLV $SVXY ))

@PauloMacro When ProPublica prints, it's going to be a very bad look.

propublica.org/article/kristi… So $220 million in advertising spend was such an emergency that it bypassed competitive bidding rules and went to a Delaware LLC formed days earlier and controlled by her longtime friend and the husband of her chief spokesperson. This almost exactly (using ad agencies with no competitive bids to pay bribes to politicians) was an actual scandal a decade ago in… Brazil. As I been saying for years now: DMs become EMs.

@biancoresearch very well contextualized

3/3 And now, this $59 billion inflow has an average purchase price of $90,146 (orange). This means the unrealized profit has shrunk to $2.94B, or 4.7%. Had this money stayed in cash (a money market fund) over the last 22 months, it would have had a larger unrealized gain.

1/3 With six weeks left in the year, both Bitcoin (orange) and Ethereum (blue) are now down on the year. If this holds, crypto will be one of the worst-performing asset classes in 2025.

@Mike_Taylor1972 @KeithMcCullough @Hedgeye very enjoyable to watch account grow.

@KeithMcCullough @Hedgeye knows how it's done!

BREAKING: Hedgeye Nation's $PINK has gone vertical @Mike_Taylor1972

@KeithMcCullough Happy Birthday - Great job

My man!

@similar_set nice post. thanks!

Thanks for reading! Signup for the free newsletter to the Similar Set Signal in your inbox daily. similarset.kit.com/__signal

Nasdaq is down 6% from it's ATHs as it sits at bullish Similar Set TREND. Here's the Similar Set TRADE/TREND signals for: $NVDA $GOOGL $APPL $MSFT $META $AMZN $AVGO $PLTR $NFLX $HECA (Hedgeye's ETF) 👇

@KeithMcCullough I'd much rather have the trade levels and intraday Risk range levels ambiguous. No one needs some Citidal picking the levels off just because they are public. The intraday isn't that hard to figure out or approximate. It just takes deliberate study and some thought.

What's the point in wanting the answer to those questions but not wanting to pay for it? You can see what I am executing on DAILY in the 2 things you asked on (URA and IWM). You can see every decisioon I make. Not Buying is Signal. Then there are the Real-Time Alerts

@similar_set just for fun: PALL or NG

Want to see your tickers Similar Set TRADE/TREND? Drop ticker below 👇

@onechancefreedm I see this

@nickgiva1 I'm sure its still alive. Just resting

Every time I look at this MSTR/IBIT spread, it reminds me of this Monty Python sketch. youtube.com/watch?v=4vuW6t…

@similar_set I see Quad 1 - 3rd best asset class are commodities normally. Interesting to hear 2yr holding bullish trade when a rate cut is expected.

Signal > Quad becuase the data changes. Signal prices it in first. It’s Quad 1 right now which says down Oil and going into a 50/50 Quad3/4 (35% of either) in November. Hard to make actionable moves with that. Rates are key here as they look like they might want another pop up (Fed decision tomorrow might be more dovish than expected based on what I’m seeing in the Signal ; 2YR holding BULLISH TRADE) I’m covering some Oil at TRADE here because big event tomorrow

#Oil When a ticker makes lower lows in a bearish TREND, the first touch of the top end of the range near TREND is a killer opportunity — every time. The key: Are you patient enough to WAIT? Can you SEE it in real-time? FREE daily levels: similarset.kit.com/__signal

@similar_set It will be interesting to see the next few days. These can be great setups. A smaller range and no change in the risk ranges is like Mandelbrot writing periods of high volatility are preceeded by periods of calm.

$DXY This is not what a strong TREND looks like. Failure above TRADE, forming a big lower high, downward-sloping range... Maybe front-running a dovish Fed. Maybe pricing in Quad 3 in November. I don’t know the WHY — and I don’t care. I just know this signals WEAKNESS. FREE daily levels: similarset.kit.com/__signal

@DA_Stockman thanks for being factual

Hey, POTUS, do you ever stop making assertions that are blatantly untrue? Ronald Reagan did not love tariffs, knew well the lessons of Smoot-Hawley from his youth and got bamboozled into a few bad calls like motorcycles and autos by protectionist advisors who told him the lie that Japan had requested "voluntary" quotas on autos! In fact, after the auto fiasco I negotiated the minimalist steel quotas as the lesser of evils to keep the commerce department and other protectionist fifth columns in the Reagan Administration from doing even more damage. So to paraphrase Senator Lloyd Bentsen from the 1992 VP debate, I knew Ronald Reagan on trade policy and your unhinged protectionism is no Ronald Reagan policy. He would have loathed your crazy tariff nonsense and pointed out that there is a world of difference between free market based Reaganomics and your Big Government interventionist statism.

@KeithMcCullough no triple levered gold etf coming soon. The ending was a good laugh.

LIVE in 3 mins, join a better way!

@similar_set Aren't both bearish trend, bullish trade.

$VIX and $MOVE are both in bullish Similar Set TRADE/TREND. Not a dip, until these break back bearish. FREE levels daily: similarset.kit.com/__signal

@robbezdjian @sivkov_ivan Tracking the increase in share count day after day is pretty eye-opening. This week +7% to wed. Last wk -1%, 2wks ago +8%, 3wks ago +12%..... Had to track weekly changes to fully absorb the scale of it.

Ivan is spot on and the chart below is a great visual representation of much of my work. Yes- it’s a scheme, and no one cares until it’s realized there’s more money and fame in bringing it down than keeping it up. In my Next paper I’m asking @sivkov_ivan to help with the charts. Really excellent Here’s an explanation regarding $TQQQ which mirrors $sqqq and highlights the un-natural demand of these products. Remember folks it’s wall streets casino they don’t lose. It’s much smarter and financially beneficial to bet with them as they raid your grandmas 401k than stand beside her in solidarity. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

“No one cares… UNTIL EVERYONE CARES.” On December 17, 2019, I became an SEC whistleblower and filed my first TCR on LETFs. Since then, I’ve demonstrated—through math—that leveraged ETFs (LETFs/LETNs) and their creation/redemption flows are predatory at best, and likely far worse. What might interest you: these products can be beaten using gambling math. Like counting cards in blackjack, the edge is rules-driven, it compounds over many hands for those who play the math. I’m collaborating with Brad Hebert @CrossCutProds, Executive Producer of Dirty Money (and others), to document this journey before the everyone-cares phase. We’re documenting the math, the effort, the gradual realization, and the support many of you have given behind the scenes (you will be known). Documentary-style, public, open-sourced, math-based. To make it easy,@bothunter and I built backtest tools and launched two live tracking dashboards based on my published, validated models: • Day Late Dollar Richer: (SQQQ) • FRAWD Model Portfolio: blending previously published mathematically advantaged models in real time The math functions as a proof—it’s either true or false. Under unchanged mechanics and specified execution, this is mechanically forced expectancy: you won’t win every hand, but the expected outcome repeats. I’ll post portfolio values daily versus the S&P 500. The Frawd Model Portfolio has been tracked since Sept 5, and DLDR since Mar 12. Trades and pricing are real; position size is scaled. Simply put: LETFs are a casino game wrapped in an ETF. Issuers and swap counterparties sit as the house and are financially liable if you win, just like a casino. If issuers/swap counterparties had average issuance at $100 and average redemptions at $150, they would go out of business. The game had to be built to guarantee investor losses to ensure house profitability (like a casino). Leverage reset, creation/redemption, and swap mechanics make the payout profile incentive-compatible for the house, and I’ve published falsifiable analyses showing how that plays out across time and products. Papers, models, and more at: frawdresearch dot com Disclosure: I am a legally represented whistleblower. The math is factual, and when the same mechanics persist, future behavior will rhyme with the past—because these products are structurally engineered that way. Nothing here is investment advice; this work is for investor protection and education. The Frawd Model Portfolio will take into account corporate actions (dividends) and borrow fees; there is zero need for any vagueness or omissions on my part, the truth is powerful enough. Lastly, in an effort to walk the fine line of giving the world enough to prove I’m right but not make myself irrelevant or have my work stolen, my published work represents the bottom quartile of my ability; you can safely assume 4× the returns you see (Frawd Model Portfolio) with .75 beta as the upper limit of my non-published, mathematically assured models. As SSRN models are validated and backtested and confirmed by the media, I will release additional enhancements, with average model returns increasing 5% per annum. If you believe that counting cards is possible, you must by association believe that products that have a defined structure and payout (reset daily, pay 2–3× daily returns) can be gamed for profit, especially when performance tables are disclosed via prospectus and performance too far outside those limits will welcome lawsuits. Remember: THERE’S NO CRYING WHEN YOU’RE THE CASINO. Bookmark & follow 🧵 below…

@KeithMcCullough @JrMiningGuy Very big today. Enjoyed trimming the gains. Thanks Hedgeye.

The Fam's gold miners are at all-time highs—guess they finally struck Wi-Fi @JrMiningGuy on the Reddit Boards! $GDX