Bruce Schmemly

@HFI_Research I’m old enough to remember when Brent was $112 around 3 weeks ago. Don’t recall any bombing of each other happening then. It’s so good of the oil market to take a “barrel half full” view of these airstrikes - that each missile that’s launched is one missile closer to peace baby!

Oh no, not another self-imposed TACO deadline. Can we just move on with the oil fundamentals? Seriously.

@HFI_Research One thing you can guarantee: 15 minutes before the EIA numbers drop, Trump will post that Iran is about to do a deal - and guess what - oil prices are about to plummet. Plummet!

API vs EIA running average error model shows EIA crude draw to be -7.5 million bbls tomorrow. Total crude draw would be 15.4 million bbls, the 4th largest crude draw in history.

@JavierBlas @opinion

COLUMN: When the day comes, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will be extraordinary: restarting about 10,000 oil wells, pumping roughly 15% of the world’s production. When it happens, it would go quicker than many think: weeks, not months. @Opinion bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

Etihad Airways on track to overtake pre-Iran war capacity: FT

@FirstSquawk Did he specify the year?

TRUMP: COULD HAVE BLOCKADE OF IRAN LIFTED BY LABOR DAY

TRUMP: STOCK MARKET IS DOING WELL

@FirstSquawk 0.75% of $1.75 trillion is *mashes old fashioned calculator buttons* $13 billion dollars. Will someone please think of the poor investment bankers!! How are they going to afford to eat?!

SPACEX IS IN TALKS TO REDUCE IPO BANK FEES TO BELOW 0.75%.

@Rory_Johnston So, toughening terms for a deal that Iran has already turned down… yeah that makes an agreement a lot more likely…

NYT: “President Trump has toughened the terms of a potential framework for a deal to end the war in Iran, and has sent those proposed changes back to the country for consideration, according to three officials. It was not immediately clear what changes had been made to the text of the agreement. Mr. Trump has been concerned about parts of the potential deal that would include unfreezing funds for the Iranians, two officials said”

@FirstSquawk But we have Tim Payne. Isn’t that enough? instagram.com/timpayne__?igs…

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth blasts New Zealand over alleged defense burden-sharing gap

@TankerTrackers @HFI_Research 6 more weeks of winter

...there appears to be plenty of storage space today at Kharg Island. If you can see a shadow within the storage tank, then the lid is depressed into the tank. That means there's less oil inside it. If you can't see a shadow, then it's full.

Today's two VLCCs were seen loading yesterday, so they're not fresh; but the Aframax began loading yesterday (2026-05-05) at 17:30 UTC. The VLCC loading at the Azarpad jetty (west side of the island) appears to be emanating diesel from her starboard aft area. Does not resemble the usual offshore crude oil spill but we could be wrong. Also....

@Rory_Johnston Maybe Project Freedom was only ever about getting the 5 trapped US vessels out of the Gulf. At least 3 got out (that we know of) over the past 48 hours. Once all 5 are out, the US has more freedom of movement militarily, without putting non-military US vessels at risk.

Postponed Freedom

Small correction: Trump named this “Project Freedom” and not “Operation Freedom”. The distinction is very important. Trump is framing this as a humanitarian mission and not a military mission. So if/when it results in conflict with Iran, the US military response will be defensive in nature, thus avoid triggering the War Powers Act. This is all about side stepping the need for Congressional approval.

On the eve of "Operation Freedom". Let's see how many tankers are brave enough to go through the Strait of Hormuz without physical naval escorts. Source: @MarineTraffic

@InsidConflict Wow that policeman unloaded 3 shots with friendlies directly behind the assailant.

BREAKING: DOJ releases high-quality security camera footage of alleged attacker Cole Allen sprinting through WHCA dinner checkpoint. • Officials confirm the footage is authentic, not AI-generated • Secret Service rejects friendly fire claims, says incident involved a 12-gauge shotgun

EU PROPOSES NEW ENERGY MEASURES TO MITIGATE IRAN CRISIS

@Rory_Johnston @asiasquawkbox Great interview Rory - it was awesome they asked good questions and then gave you the opportunity to give fulsome responses. Well done! I hadn’t considered China’s strategy re keeping oil prices higher, to keep pressure on the White House to resolve this conflict asap.

Going live with @asiasquawkbox now.

WSJ on a U.S. military official: We use both manned and unmanned means to clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz

@HFI_Research Looks like mainly LPG tankers, likely going to China or India through the Iranian tollbooth. No big flood of oil exiting the Gulf just yet - everyone needs to hold onto their hats.

In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran.

@FirstSquawk Any situation in particular?

UK PM STARMER EXPRESSING HIS COMPLETE ANGER OVER A SITUATION.

🇮🇷Iran Warns: We'll Shut Down Red Sea Shipping If U.S. Keeps Hormuz Blockade in Place Iran's military spokesperson warns they will disrupt Red Sea shipping if US blockade continues on the Strait of Hormuz.