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How can oil be up and the war be over.. Can't have both...

BREAKING: Australians will no longer pay $1.6bn in card surcharges from October 1. People shouldn’t be punished for using a credit or debit card. That's why the Reserve Bank will today take steps to end credit and debit card surcharging from October 1. This change will make a meaningful difference with Australians no longer paying $1.6 bn a year in surcharges, and small businesses will save $910m.

Personally, I am inclined to believe that the likelihood of direct negotiations between the United States and Iran remains substantial; moreover, while reaching a compromise would undoubtedly be difficult, it is by no means a hopeless prospect. This is because the militarily superior party to the conflict currently has no desire to fight, while the opposing side possesses a potent asymmetric weapon: the ability to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. If the war began without any clear objectives on Trump’s part—amidst a general sense of confusion—then continuing it would be even more devoid of meaning. Nor would it serve Iran’s interests. It is conceivable that, amidst the chaotic flow of information emanating from both sides, their respective rationalities might—through a process of tentative groping—eventually manage to find a point of convergence.

What if he just TACOs and refuses to talk about it again, pretending nothing ever happened?

This is exactly what my base case unilateral TACO scenario looks like, fwiw. WSJ: “President Trump told aides he's willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, administration officials said, likely extending Tehran's firm grip on the waterway and leaving a complex operation to reopen it for a later date.”

‼️ Competent central bankers should not be raising rates as economies plunge into supply shocks. Yet Australia has just hiked rates while facing mounting shortages of distillates, food, and other essential goods. ‼️ The academics running the world’s leading central banks…the Fed, ECB, BOE, and others…need to pause their singular focus on inflation and recognize the broader reality: tightening policy in the middle of supply-driven stress amplifies global problems and pushes us further into recession.

JUST IN - Trump says if deal is not reached with Iran and Hormuz Strait opened, U.S. "will conclude our lovely 'stay' in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!)."

Spotted at a No Kings protest in Durham, North Carolina! Epic creativity!

🇸🇦 UPDATE: First images emerging from Prince Sultan Air Base show the E-3 Sentry AWACS was not merely damaged, it was destroyed. The aircraft carries an estimated value of $500 million. The US operates only 16 in its entire fleet, they cannot be replaced.

My Suncor investment is doomed, as WTI surges over $100 with momentum

Average Age Of First Time Home Buyers In Canada Is 40! WTF Have We Done To Ourselves? In the 1990's the Average Age was 27 If you go back in time it's even slightly lower If you take house prices from 2.5X Average Family Income to 9X or 10X this is the result

For the record Ignore the noise: this is NOT the 1970s and Trump is NOT launching Iraq 2.0. High‑frequency data show no demand destruction: Americans are still spending, flying and filling hotels. Inflation expectations are well anchored. The “Iran shock” is a short term volatility trade, not a new regime. The real story is unchanged: Supply Side Policy regime shift, AI capex, an industrial renaissance and the One Big Beautiful Bill are far more powerful than a temporary oil spike. Markets are mispricing a squall as a superstorm. Ignore the noise. Ignore the Doomers. Have a nice day.