@OddStats LOVE IT! (as long as you are happy and it works for you)
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CandiceMarkAngel
293 posts
@CDMarkAngel You're in luck, I can't stop. That's part of the diagnosis.
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10-YEAR US TREASURY HITS 4.5% FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 302 DAYS
How rare is this? Well, since 1970, this is only the third time that the 10y has been below 4.5% for at least 200 trading days before going back above it.
You probably want to know how the S&P 500 $SPX did after those events so you can freak out and place some emotional bets, right? Boy, do I have you covered.
Here's how the stock market did 3mo, 6mo, and 1yr later after the only two other times this happened since 1970.
BUT @ODDSTATS, THAT'S A LOT OF WORDS AND I HAVE THE ATTENTION SPAN OF A POPTART, CAN YOU TRANSLATE THIS FOR ME?
Of course. 10 year bonds just did something for only the 3rd time since 1970. The last 2 times it happened, the stock market kept going up. Colorful numbers below. Never bet on anything that has a historical population of 2.
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@CDMarkAngel I have a background in technical writing and almost certainly some mild form of autism or something, so, yeah, you get a novel where a paragraph probably sufficed.
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@OddStats it's incredible the number of my mates that talk about their 50/50 options bets every single day since (checks notes) May 6th 2022. lol.
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@dampedspring oh to have the confidence of a high beta guy in a high beta rising market who thinks he got alpha.
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I'm going to retire in a few years for sure. I "guarantee" that.
AskLivermore@asklivermore
If you follow me, you will retire in a few years. I guarantee it. 1. $QCOM 2. $NBIS (up +25% pre-market) 3. $APLD 4. $LUNR 5. $AMD 6. $CRCL 7. $BKSY 8. $BW 9. $IONQ 10. $IREN 11. $NVTS 12. $VELO (up +20% after earnings) 13. $IBRX 14. $JOBY 15. $GH I buy stocks daily. Never too late, just get started. This is YOUR year.
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@FromValue Don't see anyone arguing they shouldn't invest. Different folks are going to have different opinions on the magnitude of spend and on what.
But investors should be tracking the efficiency of any mgmt investing/capital allocation.
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@CDMarkAngel Those companies are in markets that are way earlier than Amazon is now. They must invest.
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People: "Jeff Bezos was such a great visionary investing in $AMZN so much for so long."
Same people: "Why i are $MELI and $SE investing so much?"
Because they are leaders in their markets and know what to do.
GIF
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@GergelyOrosz get feedback from your customers in order to improve your product, seems like a great idea. can you imagine if google did that.
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It’s incredible rare (and hard!) to find people like this
Some of the success of Claude Code, Codex and OpenCode is surely that they have more than one such dev, who talks directly with users, including in public. Then does fixes based on what they learn!!
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There are few things as lame as dunking on an engineer asking for feedback, esp in public.
Honestly, a dev that has asked for feedback *once* in their lives, *in public* is already top 1% or above. Doing it regularly is somewhere too 0.0X%
It adds up+makes big differences
Dwayne@CtrlAltDwayne
Poor Boris at Anthropic is trying his hardest, but the fact he has to ask how they can do better goes to show Anthropic has literally no clue why people are ditching Claude Code for Codex.
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Stocks in Play - 11th May 2026 stocksinplay.net/p/stocks-in-pl…
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@dampedspring what sort of notional do you reckon the Street would do this in?
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Great stuff. Stock replacement trades in a vol up spot up don't work. But costless collars are extremely attractive
Alpha_Ex_LLC@Alpha_Ex_LLC
In this video podcast "Cuban's Collar is Jensen's Alpha", I walked through Mark Cuban's spectacular hedge on shares of YHOO back in 1999 and how the economics of the trade were so favorable to him because of implied volatility, skew and interest rates. In 16 minutes, I think you'll learn a good deal about the pricing dynamics for a "zero cost collar" youtube.com/watch?v=CMREJb… The same setup exists now for $INTC which is in a sharp "spot up, vol up" episode as a result of realized volatility on up days of 100 versus just 73 on down days this year. Someone lucky enough to be long the shares (that means you, Trump!) can do a zero cost collar out to Dec'28 and limit the downside exposure to just 10% but still enjoy upside of 60% at expiration. The 90/160 collar is zero cost. These are fantastic economics.
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If this is the dot com bubble in repeat then it’s my opinion that we’re in 1997….
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@BornInvestor fun that $INOD did almost exactly same volume no as this exact day 2 years ago.
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Positions over the weekend. Pretty uncomfortable with so much exposure but them's the rules!
Trim $BAND at $50 Round Number, $TH Cut remaining position in half earnings BMO Monday.
New positions $INOD and $AKAM. $INOD on 1min ORB. $AKAM on $135 U&R (second try)
$SEZL Stop out.
Passed on $RKLB took it off my list a few mins before sending newsletter. Can't really explain why because I don't know why. Had Alert for $85 felt it might shakeout. Oh well.
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@TBU12345678 you are free to be as unhappy as you like with Jensen's investments. but am guessing plenty of investors will be just fine about the 360% he has made on Intel.
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@JC_ParetsX i guess thats a take. but it doesnt seem to explain why a significant chunk of the 4 year relative underperformance has come since Buffett announced he was retiring.
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In case you're wondering why Berkshire Hathaway has become such a massive underperformer. It's what happens when you decide to raise so much cash during a raging bull market. New 4-year relative lows for Berkshire yesterday, again.
Evan@StockMKTNewz
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CASH PILE HITS A NEW RECORD HIGH Berkshire just reported earnings without Warren Buffett for the first time Berkshire Hathaway ended Q1 with $397.4B in cash and cash equivalents A NEW RECORD HIGH up from $373.3B as of the end of 2025
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@darioperkins almost like the season after you win the FA cup
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omg listening to Bailey talk through three different energy scenarios, each with 17 caveats...
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UK Gilts and Oil Pricea
The "good news" for the UK today is that it's government bond market’s hypersensitivity (high beta) to oil prices is finally providing relief on the way down:
As shown in the Bloomberg table below, the yield on 10-year Gilts is declining more sharply than in any other major advanced economy.
The Reality Check: While the downward trend is welcome, the absolute level of yields remains a significant headwind to both economic growth and fiscal headroom.
#economy #uk #bonds #uk #bonds
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@darioperkins and irrespective the UK economy will end up in 12th place too?
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@CDMarkAngel except every scenario always ends in 12th place with Palace
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@VKMacro so rumours of a check are more impactful ST than a check itself?
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