OddStats

Idiot.

@ihavedumbtakes @HoogyMiles You'll have to ask him.

@OddStats @HoogyMiles 90 accounts? Why 90? Is that an odd stat?

Is it just a coincidence or did @OddStats come back the same day @TheRoaringKitty got “hacked” Either of you are welcome to comment on this $GME #GME

@tyutchev @HoogyMiles Funny, I didn't.

@OddStats @HoogyMiles We know

@tyutchev @WayneWhaley1136 Ooo, very cool.

@WayneWhaley1136 @OddStats

THREE CONSECUTIVE +3% S&P WEEKS As reported by many, the S&P has posted three consecutive +3% weeks (+3.36, +3.55 & +4.53%), a feat that has only been accomplished twice before since 1950, once in the week ending on Sept 3, 1982 and again 38 years later on the week ending June 5, 2020. As is their nature, the Bulls have embraced those two data points as they were followed by +34.5 and +32.4% S&P gains in the following 12 months. Being one who would prefer to have more than two data points to support decisions impacting the equity risk associated with my family's investments, I thought it possibly worth the effort to survey all fifteen trading day sequences since 1950, regardless of the day of the week upon which they fell upon, defining the first five days to be the first week, Days 6-10 to be the second week and Days 11-15 to be the third week, rolling three week proxies if you will. This would give us roughly five times as many data points in our sample set to review vs using strictly calendar weeks ending on Fridays. In this second scan, there were eight cases which met our three consecutive +3% week constraint, including the two aforementioned cases that were based on actual calendar weeks and are yellow highlighted in the table below. The results of those eight cases would do little to dampen the Bulls enthusiasm for this setup given that, In all eight cases, the S&P was up at least 3%, one Quarter later for an avg Quarterly gain of 8.37% & In all eight cases, the S&P was up at least 6%, six months later for an avg six month gain of 15.2%. The one slightly tainted data point was the 1987 case which is the obligatory Perfect Thrust Study buster, in that it was launched in January with all the classic thrust signal characteristics a quant might covet which was then followed by a 20% advance into August but was brought to its knees in October by a vicious assault upon double digit interest rates which led to the Black Monday on October 19 you may have heard speak of. One of 18 studies that the 14 markets I follow presented to me this week which were shared with my Market Study subscribers this week ~ waynewhaley.witterlester@gmail.com

@countshelly You're hired. When can you start? I actually chuckled, not that you care.

@OddStats ODDSTATS, THIS SURE SOUNDS INTERESTING! BUT WHAT STOCKS DO I BUY?! WHAT STOCKS DO I SELL?! ACTUALLY, HERE'S MY IBKR LOGIN, COULD YOU JUST DO IT ALL FOR ME? THANK YOU!

YEAH...SOMETHING'S NOT RIGHT HERE. I just happened to notice that there had been a ton of decent sized positive days on $SPX over the last month or so, so I decided to count them up. 15 times in the last 31 trading days, SPX has been up at least as much as it was today (+0.58%). Is that a lot? Well, there have now been 152 times (including overlapping time periods) since $VIX came out in 1990 that this has happened. So why am I telling you about this? Because this is the FIRST TIME IN HISTORY that we've seen a 31-day period like this where VIX closed under 20 at any point during the stretch. Ever. The market is moving like it does during bear markets and corrections, except that this time, it's in neither. What gives?

@IBookWins @RyanMorse33 Oh I see. Then, yeah, totally.

@OddStats @RyanMorse33 I care i just think theres reasons for it. Im ready to be nimble

I don't disagree, but again, this isn't actually the first time you could say any of those things (or similar). We've had wars. We've had tech advancement that, at the time, was the greatest ever. I'll give you COVID. But it's not like we all just sat bored in our chairs from 1923 until 2019. Things are/were always happening that seemed like the MOST IMPORTANT THING EVER at that time.

Were coming out of two wars and the tail end of the covid era. One of thise wars been a lag since 2022 on everything. This will be the first time in nearly 7 years there is no massive overhang on the market. Add in the greatest technological advancement and capex spend in the history of humans.... it makes a lot of sense the market is doing things it never has. No wars + no covid + no inflation = Market Melts UP

@IBookWins @RyanMorse33 I mean, I can't make you care, dude. You're free to not.

@OddStats @RyanMorse33 So?

@alphaticaio Oh, you can call my feed whatever you like. I'm not one of the nutjobs on here who actually believes his shit doesn't stink. My account is satire masquerading as an arrogant stat weilding fear monger.

@OddStats We are noticing this and not calling your channel one either. We do the best we can to keep it safe, neutral and data only on our channel.

Unfortunately, YT and X are for morons/hucksters like me to try to convince insane gamblers to waste a few seconds of their time with us while they wait for the cashier to open the window back up so they can either get paid or punch someone in the nose for selling them a losing ticket.

@OddStats Lol. We find that YouTube and X are the hardest to grow. So we are trying it out. That’s all.

@RyanMorse33 Sure, sure, I agree with all that. It doesn't change the fact that the arbitrary number I chose on the arbitrary market I chose still flashed something that had never happened. Are you probably right? Well, yeah.

@OddStats OK, but doesn’t it make sense to you why? If you pick a number, even 20 bps higher and then did the NASDAQ over that same time. You probably wouldn’t see that same relation, you’d see big jerks higher.

@alphaticaio Aren't you entirely too smart to be on this platform? Also: feel free to jump in on anything I post. One can only take so many AM radio based conspiracy theories.

The positioning explains it. Dealers are short 207M shares, near the all-time record. Every session, put decay forces dealers to buy shares to rebalance. That’s mechanical buying pressure that shows up as consistent green days, not the panic-buying you see in bear market recoveries. In bear markets, those +0.58% days come from short covering and capitulation. Violent, fearful, high-VIX. This time they come from 13.8M puts decaying into dealer buying. Systematic, calm, low-VIX. Same outcome on the chart. Completely different engine underneath. The VIX is low because the buying isn’t emotional. P/C ratio is 2.36. Three puts for every call. The market is going up while more hedged than at any point in the cycle. That’s not euphoria. That’s a mechanical grind powered by the largest dealer short delta position we’ve tracked. The anomaly isn’t the streak. It’s the engine behind it. When the engine turns off (May 15 OpEx drains 24% of gamma), the streak’s structural support disappears. The calendar will answer your question.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ $SPY $SPX $QQQ

@basedMuK Sure, but how is that different than every day of the stock market since the day it was invented?

@OddStats Extreme manipulation

@VIXandMore Much appreciated, Bill. My apologies for all the excuses you'll have to make on my behalf over the next few hours.

Some of you may remember @OddStats, who recently returned from a 7-year hiatus and hasn’t skipped a beat. If you are looking for interesting factoids, ideas to chew on, and an irreverent tone, he is a mandatory follow. The commentary below is representative of what to expect.

@trading_2win @RyanMorse33 It DID feel like one, but that doesn't change the fact that we're currently having this ROCKET TO FUCKING JUPITER with a relatively low VIX environment NOW.

@OddStats @RyanMorse33 The Iran sell off felt like a correction to me. Markets move much faster these days seems like a plausible explanation.

@Poohbear_687 Right. For a change.

@OddStats The best part is it looks like you are puking blood 🩸

@KochmanMatthew It's delicious. Like a bloody mary that has been left out overnight and then someone dumped the rest of the ashtray beer into it.

@OddStats 🤮

@EquityClock But if that were true, wouldn't we have seen this happen in some other May before? Like, even once?

Perhaps seasonality. Beware of the late May through to early June uptick in the VIX amidst the end of quarter portfolio rebalancing period, which this year suggests will be extreme given the parabolic climb in many AI/Semiconductor names. $VIX $SMH $XLK

@RyanMorse33 Correct. When VIX is low, the market usually slowly melts up, not JERKS UP VIOLENTLY like now.

@OddStats So stated another way, back in periods when the VIX used to live under 15 we had not one stretch of 31 trading days where at least 15 of them were up 58 basis points on SPX?

@KBSN4433 Oh. Oh ok. I was just kidding anyway. Unless... Never mind.

@OddStats Not sure what you’re talking about but no

If you made a simple 50/50 options bet every single trading day since May 6, 2022, where exactly one year later the S&P 500 $SPX was: HIGHER - you win LOWER - you lose You went 753-3 (.996 win %) as of yesterday.