Bruce

@natbrunell Let them go AI, at least they can generate cash flow to pay the bills and stop selling bitcoin

“Fast forward 2 years and we have another halving. Another four years and we have another having again. And at the point where we’re basically under a bitcoin a block, it starts getting pretty expensive to mine bitcoin when the alternative use of energy is AI.” Thank you for all the downloads on my show with MARA CEO @fgthiel. Don’t miss the full show wherever you stream your podcasts.

@rohanhirani_ I believe the number of shares for each Bitcoin owned is the simplest and most immediate metric to evaluate the work

What else would you like to see on Strategy.com?

@ChartMind Il settore sta maturando e si sta consolidando intorno ai vincitori, un po' quello che è successo alle aziende internet dopo il 2000. Finalmente non è più un parco giochi e truffe

@ChartMind 17 mesi di copertura dividendi. Se btc continuerà a comportarsi come ha sempre fatto mstr funzionerà perfettamente

@jameslavish What hurts the most this time is that it has completely decoupled negatively from everything else, it continues to collapse while the rest is at its highest.

For what it is worth. I am not a "permabull" on Bitcoin, I have conviction. That conviction has been tested repeatedly over the last number of years. Has my thesis changed? No. And that is why I remain confident and patient while taking advantage of deep drawdowns caused by overwhelmingly negative public sentiment.

@ki_young_ju long stagnation? But if 8 months ago we were at 120k

Bitcoin's biggest risk is not a crash. It is boredom. Saylor's STRC structure becomes truly dangerous not when Bitcoin simply crashes, but when Bitcoin spends years moving sideways and the bear market drags on. A sharp drawdown can be survived if the market still believes in the next leg up. But long stagnation kills the story. It weakens demand, compresses MSTR premium, and makes Saylor's capital-raising machine much harder to sustain. That's why Saylor's real challenge is not just buying more Bitcoin. It is giving the market a new reason to believe. After nearly a decade in this industry, I've realized Bitcoin's core has not really changed. What changes every cycle is the story around why BTC price should keep going up. But most of those stories now feel exhausted. Bitcoin was supposed to be digital gold, but when it needed to act like one, it often traded like a tech stock. It was supposed to be freedom money built by cypherpunks, but many Bitcoin OGs are now shilling other coins. And as AI advances, concerns around quantum computing are becoming harder to ignore. I still believe the pool of capital that could flow into Bitcoin is massive. I also believe more financial institutions will enter, and that Bitcoin will trend higher over the long run. But compared to 10 years ago, the sense of an inevitable catalyst feels much weaker. When I founded CryptoQuant in 2018, I strongly believed a Bitcoin ETF would eventually be approved. I also thought a U.S. president openly supporting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset would happen someday. Those narratives played out. And honestly, it makes me a little sad to see the ideas that originally pulled me in gradually get consumed and diluted: freedom money, energy money, and institutional adoption. Saylor is now pushing Bitcoin banking and digital credit, but I don’t think those concepts are easy for ordinary people to understand. I miss the days when the message was simple: "Bitcoin is freedom money. It is money for people willing to fight for freedom." So what narrative does Bitcoin have ready for the next wave of liquidity? And will people really be convinced by Saylor’s digital credit narrative? Even if financial institutions buy into it and Bitcoin goes up because of it, it will be hard to say Bitcoin is still going up because of cypherpunk values. Bitcoin does not just need another catalyst. It needs a new center of gravity that can unite believers again.

@TXMCtrades This is the point, to avoid someone printing your money out of thin air while you have to trade time and effort to get it.

I'm not a fan of the "Bitcoin is backed by energy" talking point. This gets repeated often but feels misleading, from my perspective. - "Backed" traditionally means redeemability. Like the dollar backed by gold. You can't however trade BTC for the energy used to produce it. - Backing also implies collateral, or a reserve relationship that doesn't exist. But energy is simply a cost. A diamond ring requires energy to produce it, but it isn't "backed by energy". - Miners are typically net sellers. Their operation is affected by energy costs, but the price of BTC is simply the end result of supply/demand in the market which is largely unaware of these costs. Energy is a perpetual liability of network operators, not a boon. Energy may not back the *value of the coins*, but it can be said to enforce the *integrity of the record* by requiring steep real world costs to attack and rewrite the ledger. With Bitcoin, energy is needed to run the code and secure the network, to release new units and update the chain. This is different from fiat in that new fiat units can be created endlessly by decree and keystroke, essentially for free. BTC is akin to a digital commodity in this way, as all commodities need energy to convert their origin state into stable units. However, it differs from physical commodities by the added wrinkle that there is an eternal energy liability into the future for the network even to function. There is no shelf stable offline unit of BTC that can be accessed or moved without someone absorbing the energy liability to run the code. So to me it feels like a false framing to call it a "backing" of the asset itself. It is a cost that must be paid by someone somewhere even after new units have been released, or those units cease to function.

@Giovann35084111 Grazie per la tua ricerca

This Daily Slope Signal-to-Noise Ratio parameter, or DSSNR, is far more meaningful than the floor everyone is obsessing over. The DSSNR tells us how the daily slope of the Bitcoin power law compares to its long-term mean behavior. In other words, it does not just ask where price is relative to a band. It asks whether the daily dynamics of the power law are still behaving normally. The colors indicate different regimes: Red: large negative slope deviations Green: positive slope deviations Light blue and orange: transition regions around the mean The current reading is one of the largest negative DSSNR deviations we have seen. That is concerning, but it is not catastrophic. Until just a few days ago, the DSSNR was oscillating around its mean value, which indicates that the power law was alive and functioning normally. This matters because the power law is not only about where Bitcoin is on a chart. It is about how Bitcoin moves through time. Remember: It is not only where we are. It is how we got there. A temporary negative deviation does not invalidate the structure. It may take only a few strong upward jumps to return toward the reference power-law trajectory. But even while price is below the reference line, the power-law dynamics can still be active every day. That is why DSSNR is so important.The floor is just one empirical feature. DSSNR is a deeper diagnostic of whether the system is still following the power-law process itself. And it is so far.

@ChrisCamillo If by risk we mean volatility, we're 100% right. If we're talking about permanent loss of capital, then Bitcoin is safer than many other assets.

Owning Bitcoin is fine. Bitcoin owning you is not.

@dotkrueger He was apparently expecting 150% returns without 50% declines.

Just in: a mathematical system has "lost the plot".

@ZynxBTC Saylor recently said that after a very strong month like April it is normal to have a weaker month to stabilize

Just to clarify, none of this matters in the long-term. $STRC is one of the best financial products ever created and will see trillions of inflows one day. I just think 12% is pretty nice for marketing at almost no extra cost. The yield is variable and will come down anyway. Bootstrap demand for the short-term, why not? If it doesn't happen, no problem.

@LynAldenContact Finalmente!

Broken Money is out in Italian now. 👍

@Criv81 @saylor peccato che per qualche settimana strc sarà totalmente scarico, sarebbe un ottima mossa il passaggio al dividendo bisettimanale

Il buon @saylor ha deciso che è giunto il momento di attivare il boost

Elon Musk just diagnosed the disease no one admits they have. Life has become a triage ward. Pay the bill. Dodge the crisis. Survive the week. Repeat until dead. Musk: “Life cannot just be about solving one miserable problem after another. That can’t be the only thing.” Most people can name every problem they are running from. They cannot name a single thing they are running toward. That is the disease. You did not lose your purpose. You replaced it with maintenance. Musk: “There need to be things that inspire you. That make you glad to wake up in the morning and be part of humanity.” Glad to be part of humanity. When was the last time you felt that. Not relief. Not distraction. Not the dull numbness of a weekend burning down to Sunday night. Actual gladness that you exist. Most people cannot answer that question. Not because the answer is painful. Because they have never been asked. We have spent decades staring at the floor. Sweeping the same dirt into the same corner of the same room. Musk quotes Tsiolkovsky: “Earth is the cradle of humanity, but you cannot stay in the cradle forever.” The cradle is warm. The cradle is safe. The cradle is small. And a species that refuses to leave it is not being cautious. It is dying slowly in the only room it has ever known. Musk: “It is time to go forth, become a starfaring civilization… and expand the scope and scale of human consciousness.” Look up tonight. Billions of galaxies. Trillions of stars. An ocean of light stretching 93 billion light years in every direction. And one tiny wet rock figured out how to wonder why it exists. We are not passengers on this planet. We are the universe waking up. And right now the only conscious thing in the universe is trapped in one room arguing about the electricity bill. The problems will never end. There will always be another fire. But you were not built to fight fires. The universe was dark for 13.8 billion years. Then it opened one eye. You.

@STRC_live Manca tanto tempo ma penso già a cosa succederà nel 2028 con il prossimo halving

STRC just absorbed 102% of today's Bitcoin mining supply Fifth straight day of full absorption 459 BTC — every coin mined, plus 9 from HODLers STRC.live

@CarloCalenda Viviamo in un eccesso di democrazia dove persone che non sanno neanche allacciarsi le scarpe possono esprimersi e spesso fermare progetti strategici per il paese. La necessità primaria del paese è uno stato forte in grado di poter fare quello che serve realmente

Ho l’impressione che l’Italia sia fondamentalmente per il #No. Ma non solo su questo referendum. Siamo per il No al cambiamento in qualsiasi settore. Da questo punto di vista siamo il paese più conservatore d’Europa. Troviamo sempre una ragione per non cambiare: la giustizia, la scuola, il regionalismo o per non fare investimenti infrastrutturali ed energetici. Questo conservatorismo è trasversale alla destra e alla sinistra che sono normalmente immobili in attesa che l’altra parte faccia “l’errore” di proporre qualcosa. Da questo stallo dobbiamo uscire se vogliamo sopravvivere e diventare qualcosa di più di una meta turistica.

Signs Of The Most Dangerous People!!!! 1. One hairstyle for their entire life. 2. Just 20 minutes are enough for any kind of shopping. 3. No jealousy of other people's clothes. 4. Talking on the phone for only 30 seconds. 5. For a 5-day trip. even 1 pair of pants is enough. 6. Even without an invitation, the friendship remains strong 7. No drama, simple lifestyle. The shirt worn today will also be worn to a party tomorrow.

@CryptoTice_ Diminishing returns apply to both upside and downside. A weak bull can lead to an equally weak bear.

THIS WAS NOT THE BOTTOM. NOT EVEN CLOSE. If you’ve studied real Bitcoin bottoms, you know the signature: – Capitulation candles – Massive volume spikes – Forced selling, not orderly pullbacks Go back to 2022–2023. That’s what a bottom actually looked like. Now look at today: – Volume is muted – Selling is controlled – No panic, no surrender That’s not a bottom. That’s a pause. What we’re seeing now is classic: – Breakdown – Small relief bounce – Hope returns briefly – Liquidity gets offered – Then the real dump Bottoms are loud. They’re violent. They feel unfair. This move? Too clean. Too calm. We’re going lower. And yes portfolios that ignored structure will feel it.

Always take profit before the screenshot 😂😂😂😂😂

@AdamBLiv in this scenario the biggest unknown is Bitcoin's CAGR.

MSTR Stock Price Modeling: 10 Years Out MSTR seems like an amazing entry here and the amplification outweighs the premium you're paying. Current BTC price: $87,829 BTC CAGR: 30% Time horizon: 10 years MSTR amplification: 27% Current MSTR price: $165.27 1. Bitcoin price in 10 years 30% CAGR over 10 years: Growth multiple: 1.30¹⁰ ≈ 13.79 Future BTC price: $87,829 × 13.79 ≈ $1.21 million 2. Amplified Bitcoin exposure (MSTR) 27% amplification means MSTR compounds at: BTC return × 1.27 So effective growth multiple: 13.79 × 1.27 ≈ 17.5× 3. Implied MSTR stock price Apply the amplified multiple to today’s price: $165.27 × 17.5 ≈ $2,890 per share of MSTR ✅ Final Answer Bitcoin (10Y): ~$1.21M MSTR multiple: ~17.5× Implied MSTR price: ~$2,900 per share This assumes: No multiple expansion No contraction, stays at 1.1x They maintain 27% amplification Pure Bitcoin CAGR + structural amplification only But.... remember MSTR has a BTC Yield this year of 24.9% this year. What if we model in a conservative 10% BTC Yield per year AND an mNAV rerating to 1.5x? Bitcoin per share exposure increases 10% per year, compounding: BTC/share multiple: 1.1010≈2.59×1.10^{10} ≈ 2.59×1.1010 ≈ 2.59× This is independent of BTC price appreciation. It stacks on top. mNAV re-rating from 1.11 → 1.50... Total MSTR multiple: Now multiply all three effects: 13.79×2.59×1.35≈48.2×13.79 \times 2.59 \times 1.35 ≈ 48.2×13.79×2.59×1.35 ... ≈ 48.2× Apply that multiple to today’s price: Implied MSTR price: ~$8,000 per share BULLISH MSTR.