Calvin Value

@eshear Can you please elaborate?

If you haven’t taken the coding agent pill yet, I recommend it sooner rather than later. If you get started early you can do it a few small pills at a time. It’s a pretty big pill to swallow all at once.

@GSRevelator @vanckzhu @InvestSpecial How about $2.30? :)

@vanckzhu @InvestSpecial risk/reward better at $2.7, where it touched yesterday. Back up on this

@PEoperator Nice thread. Henry Mintzberg on the same point:

I spent time in the dirtiest, most under-appreciated part of a business I was a part of. Filthy. Best decision I ever made as an operator. Here's what I learned:

@TihoBrkan Value has underperformed? You’ve got to consider a longer time series…

Hermes is a pretty good example of a P/E ratio sitting at a median level of around 50 times for 20 years, while the stock went up 46x and compounded at almost 23%. Great example of nonlinearity, where expensive wasn't actually expensive (causality breaks down). But the best examples are those where cheap wasn't actually cheap. So many single-digit and low double-digit multiple ratios disappointed investors. More money has been lost buying optically cheap stocks than any other way over the last 2-3 decades. We know this is a fact, since value has underperformed every other factor by a massive margin. Another great example of nonlinearity, where cheap actually turned out to be expensive (causality was counterintuitive).

Why most investors (if not all) should avoid multiple ratios and untrain themselves from using this error-prone tool. 👇 Relying on pattern recognition in stable linear fields works well. That is true. But, relying on it in unstable nonlinear fields doesn't, and leads to a bias called "patternicity." Let's get on the same page here. What is the definition of unstable and nonlinear fields? "Unstable" fields are those where the foundational parameters or rules of the activity are dynamic (not stable) and change frequently. Tennis is a stable domain with set rules, while engaging in a war isn't. When an activity is very complex and in a state of flux, such as military activity or stock investing, pattern recognition fails spectacularly. Additionally, "nonlinear" fields are those where the cause and effect aren't linear or obvious. Linear fields like chess or mathematics have obvious outcomes. However, when causality breaks down and becomes counterintuitive, patterns don’t repeat fittingly, and the outcomes are unpredictable and often counterintuitive. What are examples of unstable nonlinear fields? I named a few, but here is a longer list: stock market investing, venture capital, business start-ups, medical diagnosis and treatment, geopolitics, macroeconomic policies, military strategy, managing crises and pandemics, intervening in nature, teaching and leadership, marketing campaigns, urban planning, sports team management, insurance underwriting, etc. Why does patternicity occur in these fields? In such fields, learning the wrong tools — multiple ratios are a perfect example, but there are others — can be deceptive or unproductive. Individuals who’ve accumulated experience (not to be mistaken with expertise) often exhibit overconfidence bias (hubris) in their tools and keep learning incorrect lessons from their experience. Most investors cannot use multiples accurately, so they should skip them altogether. I believe I fall into this area, and so do 99.9% of others. Then, there are a rare few exceptional investors who don't actually need them anyway and can save their limited cognitive load from the unnecessary mental gymnastics.

@compoundpapi @DiversityCopOut What about numerator? Net income? EBIT?

@CapitalShipyard Reckon you can very easily build a tool that does this for you reliably on Claude code

Ok, ChatGPT now agrees to send me daily news updates that are relevant to any stock that I've named a chat after. It gets it wrong, but I imagine it'll eventually get it right.

@Ashwinreads Apologies for being late to the party, but have you written about this specific idea in detail somewhere? Can you point me to where if so?

one of the major issues with glp-1 prescriptions coming from traditional channels in india is the stigma and bias toward these meds. many hcp's with all due respect, don't have a clue about the next frontier of diabesity and would rather prescribe metformin etc. this is why im so bullish on d2c channels like tata 1mg or net meds absolutely smashing the glp-1 market out of the park once the patent expires.

@PEoperator Can you tell us how you’re using it and what you’re doing with it?

Claude is changing my life right now.

@InvestSpecial .@alexbossert thoughts?

#9: $SKYH Short - High-quality hangar biz, priced for flawless execution - Bulls assume unrealistic NOI/sqft and scale to 50 airports - Actual results show low NOI, high opex, execution issues - Undercapitalized for near-term builds; dilution likely - Down from $12 to $9/shr.

Best Value Investors Club Ideas of 2025. Below are the elevator pitches on the 10 highest-rated ideas from VIC members. The majority are still active with significant potential upside remaining. Let’s dive in🧵

@AggieCapitalist @AKWilk Why do you think it is so mispriced?

@AKWilk I would add in $FLYW, headline consensus for 16% rev growth, been beating top line ests by HSD% consistently... 6.7x EBITDA.

One of these is not like the others.

@hkuppy @wu_wei_invest @MikeFritzell What about something like $adbe? Maybe AI fears are right and this thing is disrupted a few years from now. But I these numbers are just lovely. Yours for 12x TTM…

@wu_wei_invest @MikeFritzell Compounders eventually hit a wall. Something changes. Investors are just waking up….

David Hay of Evergreen GaveKal once said in an interview: "if you're going to panic, panic FAST". That said, it feels like we're more half-way through than day 1.

@orrdavid RH has the Jakob chair, which, like this one by Cassina, was inspired by the Chandigarh chair designed by Pierre Jeanneret in the 1950s. It’s like 1/8th price of Cassina’s

I've tried so many office chairs, and none of them really felt great. This time I decided to try a chair without wheels, and thus far it's so much better. If you have a long torso relative to legs and carry more weight at the top of your torso, this one is worth trying because it gives so much back support. It's very comfortable. People way underspend on chairs given how much time we spend sitting in them. This is something to not cheap out on, and to keep hunting around until you find a chair that suits you well.

@hkuppy Is it finally JOEtime?

One of these days, someone will actually do the work and realize that $JOE owns dozens of miles of waterfront… Their land is not only valuable, but appreciating rapidly…

@GestaltU Are these moves, in percentage terms, anomalous looking back through history? When has something like this happened before? What on earth is happening?

Gold is starting to get disorderly. Might want to buckle up - in both directions.

@paulcerro What is your EBITDA forecast in relation to the lender presentation figs?

👏🏼 this 👏🏼 is 👏🏼 why 👏🏼 behavioral 👏🏼 changes 👏🏼 are 👏🏼 critical! $WW "Studies show that after stopping the drugs, people typically regain lost weight within about 1.5 years. And any improvements in blood sugar, blood pressure or cholesterol are reversed."

@paulcerro @puppyeh1 I am not trolling. Don’t be so defensive. I am long myself - just pointing out that it has melted in the last few weeks Could you enlighten as to your assessment of why the stock has dropped 40%?

@CalvinValue @puppyeh1 Why are trolls that don't know anything the loudest ones on this platform? Do you know why it suddenly dropped 40%?

Friendly reminder that $WW is being valued at 4x FY'26 EBITDA with a cash sweep provision and off of post-bankruptcy filing projections (modeling no upside from them) NFA, but the news today allows $WW to tap into their ~2.9M subs who aren't on medication. They only have 124k clinical subs so you can imagine the opportunity not just from today's announcement. Food for thought. Disc: We have a position.

@puppyeh1 @paulcerro Over a 40% decline since your congratulations! Ouch

@CalvinValue @paulcerro Well done on the amazing performance so far!

@PEoperator Any thoughts or opinions on the role of compounding pharmacies in all this?

I am a big believer in Peptides as the next major health trend. They’re sort of here already but not even close to all the way. GLP-1s are the first commercial wave. Retatrutide is the evolution it seems- everyone will be talking about that soon. But there are so many more that can help people heal, improve skin health, promote muscle growth, provide mental focus, etc. And they’re just amino acids. Nothing special. A chain of amino acids that signal something to your body. What’s interesting is that because they’re just amino acids, it is harder to commercially protect them hence why you don’t see big pharma pushing these even though the effects are significant. So that means regulations are in place to “protect” us. It is true that contaminated sources could be extremely detrimental to your health. But in practice, this regulation prevents safe mass production. Feels like regulatory capture from Big Pharma. Hopefully this administration reduces red tape so these tools are widely and safely available and not subject to regulatory capture. Btw the future isn’t zero regulation, it’s just smarter regulation. Before you comment… these are not replacements for good health decisions, they are supplements to good health decisions. For example, GLP-1s will erode muscle mass if you don’t workout and eat sufficient protein while using them. But so would a diet w/o GLP-1s that puts you in a caloric deficit. You should think of peptides as an amplifier or assistant to achieving your goal. I predict you see more and more of this and hopefully safely and legally and not just through big pharma. If you’ve tried any or have reliable sources, would appreciate your reply/comments below.

@BeenThereCap @toiletkingcap Is it a buy and hold forever today?

I have known this since 2007. I bought into the their IPO then botched the stock holding, but didn’t botch the customer loyalty. @toiletkingcap

@paulcerro $ww not looking much better

Broke $30 again... Bummer $HIMS