Capricornian

@Chandrakbose Low iq fuckers like you dont build nation. If you couldnt see through BJP 10 years ago your iq is as good as that of a pig.

It was a 'historic blunder' to join BJP-but I realised it sooner than later! A party's only intention is to divide-polarise the voters just to win elections cannot be my scene! Communalism cannot be fought by communalism! Let us unite all communities to protect the fabric of our nation. Like minded parties, activists and the people must come together to defeat divisive forces who are out to ruin the country. Jai Hind!

@piku451 Who is this bitch ?

Breaking 🚨 Pawan Khera ji ne ek baar phir sach bol diya 🔥 Asli jeet toh logon ke dil mein hai – aur woh jeet koi nahi chheen sakta ❣️ Rahul Gandhi Ji Zindabad💪

@tleilax___ Why is it a different trade ? If long energy pays best bang for you buck, why give up alpha on long sugar ?

@CapriGrit I'm a VERY long mid-curve diesel and crude. This is a different trade. x.com/tleilax___/sta…

The most underpriced commodity right now might be sugar, and that is because Brazilian ethanol is the solver of the global gasoline market shortage. Here's the Brazil gasoline arbitrage nobody is talking about. 1/ Brazil is a net importer of 150'000 barrels per day of gasoline and blending components (light ends). A massive, structural deficit for the world's largest ethanol producer. That gasoline import is about 9 million tonnes per year of sugar-equivalent ethanol sitting one government price decision away from being diverted. Brazil is also a net importer of 300 kbd of diesel for farm and trucking, and boatloats of nitrogen fertilizers, but that is story for another day. 2/ Why? Because Brazilian domestic gasoline prices are currently at ~60% of international levels. Petrobras imports at world prices, sells cheap. The government eats the subsidy. 3/ This matters enormously for the sugar/ethanol split. Brazil's flex-fuel fleet prices ethanol at pump parity — i.e. ~70-75% of gasoline. If gasoline is at 60% of world prices, domestic ethanol is worth ~42-45% of international gasoline equivalent. 4/ Now stress-test with Hormuz. A sustained closure creates a persisting global gasoline price spike. Petrobras faces an existential fiscal hole importing at high prices and selling at 60% of it. This is called the defasagem or subsidy gap. The government eventually capitulates — they always do, they just lag. Meanwhile, the BRL devalues because it hurts the fiscal situation, balooning the import bill. Eventually Petrobras aligns gasoline prices to international levels, ethanol then rallies. Until then, Brazilian ethanol and subsidized gasoline gets exported in increasing quantities, through official channels but also the porous Paraguay border. 5/ When domestic gasoline normalises toward world prices, the math inverts overnight. Pump parity makes domestic ethanol suddenly valuable. Mills flip the cane mix lever toward ethanol. Sugar export volumes collapses at the precise moment demand from the middle east is catching up post Ramadan 6/ Turning raw sugar into white sugar requires refineries (Etihad in Iraq is getting sugar through Hormoz, but waiting to see what Al Khaleej and that Saudi "doctor" gets), polypropylene bags (scarce and more expensive) and natural gas (scarce and more expensive) and diesel trucking (scarce and more expensive). You also know what I think about the white sugar premium over raws. 7/ The kickers: we are entering Brazil's pre-harvest window and it has been raining so harvesting pace is slow and crushing favors ethanol. Funds are net short sugar and the momentum has already reverted with upside asymetry. A demand shock into an inelastic supply = price spike. I think this year it will rain Reals on the Brazilian cane industry, and by the look of it, some players can immensely benefit. Party time. youtube.com/watch?v=CCF1_j… Disclaimer : I am rather obviously long sugar and brazilian sugar equities.

@tleilax___ All of the above cant happen. One of them has to give in. Most likely, US forces take Jask this weekend and at the same time Pahlavi & Mossad calls for people to get out in the streets. Aerial support over Tehran for protestors using UAV. This could all end in couple of days.

@tleilax___ All built on a premise that oil prices will stay at these levels for rest of the year which implies some kind of disruption rest of the year which in turn implies US offensive assets stationed in Arabian Sea and in Middle East for extended period of time without kinetic action.

@davidonchainx Lol $btc down 22 % since war began ?? What are you smoking ??

Since the war started: - S&P500 is down 6.1% - Nasdaq is down 8.7% - Gold is down 17% - Bitcoin is down 22% And he said it should be down more?

@AlaliQasem Which refinery is shut down ?

Let that sink in. 🧮 Global demand = 105M bpd 🔴 Hormuz shut: -20M 🔴 Refinery shutdowns: -8M 🔴 Damaged refineries: -1.4M Every fix thrown at it: 🟢 SPR: +2M 🟢 Saudi pipeline: +3M 🟢 Fujairah pipeline: +0.5M 🟢 Oil on water: +1.9M Net result: -24M bpd shock COVID Q2 2020: -23M bpd This crisis is BIGGER than COVID. And oil is at $109. The market hasn’t even started pricing this in. 🛢️💥

@RobertJMolnar And then Israel tactical nukes Iran and carpet bombs the country and you oussies will cry human rights. Go back to your hole, fucking rat.

Strictly from a game theorist and conflict studies perspective...it has made sense that Hezbollah and the Houthis have held off for the last 3 weeks..... Now is when, as Israel is running out of interceptors, that they can now start firing away in support of their patron Iran. There is no doubt a huge operation and plan being put together to utterly overwhelm Israel with missile fire.....Hezbolla fires away, Houthis fire away, Israel expends a shitload of interceptors, then Iran fires their big shit at Israel hours later That is what I would do. Mass destruction

@DarioCpx The people of Iran are going to take control. Don't worry @DarioCpx . Your fear porn for last 3 years have not materialised and if you traded your mouth you would be absolutely bankrupt.

Alright, the 📍 is the location of Iran’s Kharg Island. Do you see how deep inside the Strait of Hormuz is? Good. Neither the US, the Avengers, or the Power Rangers have any chance to take control of that Island with a few thousands Marines, let alone to even bring them there!

@VladTheInflator Dude if US wants it can bomb entire iran into oblivion but then you rats would start crying about human rights. So go back to your cave...

We went from "unconditional surrender" to "please open Hormuz, can someone help?"

@traderhc Now explain why bonds rallied pruor to Iran fiasco. The people who weren't demanding term premium suddenly wanted it based on oil rally ? Get your head sorted out.

We're cooking. Bonds just sold off on a clean inflation print. Read that again. CPI came in benign. The 10Y still rose to 4.18%. When good news can't push yields down, the problem isn't inflation. It's term premium. The market wants more compensation to hold long-duration government debt. $TLT breaking below its lower Bollinger Band on a day that should have been bullish for bonds is technically ugly. I think it sees lower this week. Meanwhile $IWM is diverging hard from mega-caps. Down while $QQQ is green. Small caps need lower long rates to breathe, and the bond market just said no. Next Wednesday's FOMC is the real test. The question isn't whether the Fed cuts. It's whether the long end comes down even if they do. What's your read on the long end here?

@John_Chungus_5 Lol...calling 2018 and 2022 as bear markets..!!!

can't make this stuff up, folks

@DarioCpx If this guy traded his mouth he would be liquidated every week.

Ladies and gentlemen, now there is no more doubt this is the dumbest stock market in the history of mankind

@SpencerHakimian Dude stop shitposting if you have no clue apart from counting from 1 to 10.

I don’t think people are realizing that NOTHING in the global economy works at $120/Oil. Nothing.

You’re bored because you’re not doing side quests, man. Life is more than just working and then throwing yourself into bed doing nothing. Here are 50 side quests to complete:

This is more relevant than ever. #Iran

@BlueDiamond2077 @indycarhawk14 @seowie @commonsenseplay With duration of 15 years that would equate to a 15-17% move in TLT assuming move in 30y is similar. That would mean TLT around 107 not 117.

@CapriGrit @indycarhawk14 @seowie @commonsenseplay U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield.

$TLT BREAKS $90 NEXT STOP $100.

@BlueDiamond2077 @indycarhawk14 @seowie @commonsenseplay 3% on 30y ??

@indycarhawk14 @seowie @commonsenseplay I think we can see 3.0% easily this year. This translates to $110–120 $TLT. Historically, these rallies are violent, not gradual, that’s why I’m so hesitant to sell calls this year. Unlike in 2025, Yeah I did some $95s, but only over a few trading days.

@fiago7 All their wins came after the season ended in Norway. So basically they only had to focus and train for Champions league. Quite easy to answer for a good football follower. Now the league starts from March.

The rise of Bodø Glimt needs to be talked about. The fact they even play in the UCL is a miracle. The fact they just got their first 4 UCL wins in club history and those against Man City, Atlético, Inter (home) & Inter (away) can‘t be explained by the human mind.