Cellar Politics®

Commodities BofA’s Hartnett Sees the Surge in Commodities Lasting for Years - Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

China’s biotechs are faster and have lower costs, and its drug research threatens to soon overtake the West’s on.wsj.com/41rFrSh

IGWT Weekly Precious Metals Recap 📅 Week ending: Friday, April 10, 2026 🥇 Gold (USD): 4,747.49, W/W (+1.54%) 🥈 Silver (USD): 75.88, W/W (+3.95%) ⚖️ G/S Ratio: 62.57, W/W (-1.49) ⛏️ GDX (USD): 99.39, W/W (+5.07%) ⛏️ SIL (USD): 96.66, W/W (+4.33%) 🚦 Incrementum Active Aurum Signal: Defensive 🆙 Precious metals continued their upward trajectory this week, with price action reflecting sustained strength and a constructive tone across the complex. For starters, gold registered a firm weekly gain, maintaining its bullish structure as steady demand and supportive momentum carried prices higher. Once again, silver led the move, advancing more sharply and further compressing the Gold/Silver ratio, highlighting its characteristic outperformance during periods of positive acceleration. Unsurprisingly, mining equities echoed this strength, with both gold and silver miners posting robust gains and outperforming the underlying metals, pointing to continued interest in higher-beta exposure as confidence builds. In line with these developments, the Incrementum Active Aurum Signal remains in Defensive mode, indicating that despite the ongoing advance, a measured and risk-conscious stance remains appropriate under current conditions. ⚖️ #GoldSurge #SilverRally #GoldSilverRatio #MiningStocks #PreciousMetals #Commodities #MarketTrends #DefensivePositioning #AssetPerformance #WeeklyRecap #IGWTReport

Venezuela is pivoting on mining, but it’s a complicated re-entry. A new legislative framework now permits foreign and private entities to develop gold and "strategic minerals" via concessions lasting up to 30 years. On the surface, this is a massive policy shift designed to court international capital. Here are the core mechanics of the deal: • Legal Safeguards: Provisions for international arbitration. • Fiscal Terms: Royalties capped around 13%. • Control: The State retains resource ownership, while the Central Bank manages gold sales. The geological potential is undeniably vast, spanning gold and nickel to PGMs and rare earths. However, this isn't a straightforward "buy" signal. This is a desperate reset following decades defined by aggressive nationalization, crumbling infrastructure, and the entrenchment of illegal mining operations. While the door is open, don't expect a gold rush. Institutional capital has a long memory, and jurisdictional risk of this magnitude doesn't evaporate just because a new law is on the books. Exploration firms will likely kick the tires, but they’ll be moving with extreme caution. #Venezuela #MiningSector #ResourcePolicy #ForeignInvestment #MiningLaw #GoldMining #CriticalMinerals mining.com/web/venezuela-…

Ed Steer: Including all theirs, the derivatives/paper held in the precious metals...mostly on the short side...is an eye-watering 2+ TRILLION dollar number which can never be covered, either in the paper market, or through the delivery of physical metal. ...without driving the prices of all four precious metals beyond the moon in the process. silverseek.com/article/big-8-…

Gold is reshaping the global financial system: Central bank gold holdings surpassed valuation-adjusted US Dollar reserve assets for the first time on record. Adjusted USD reserves remove the interest earned on holdings like US Treasuries, showing only how much central banks are actively adding to their Dollar reserves. Official gold reserve assets are up to a record $3.87 trillion, ~$140 billion above valuation-adjusted US Dollar reserve assets, at $3.73 trillion. Since 2022, gold reserve assets have TRIPLED, driven by a record central bank accumulation and surging prices. At the same time, USD reserve assets have declined -$300 billion. The trend accelerated after the seizure of Russian assets in 2022, new sanctions, and growing geopolitical uncertainty. World central banks are accumulating gold at an unprecedented pace.

Iran war = "Make China Great Again"? Second time I've heard this in the last couple days. Via @KingKong9888

With equities and bonds once again positively correlated, the purest diversifier have been commodities.

Chinese Gold ETF buyers know...

As conflict in the Middle East raises fresh concerns over global supply chains, former US Navy Commander Phil Ehr says the consequences are already being felt — warning the situation amounts to a “strategic failure.” In this interview, Ehr explains why copper has become a critical component in modern warfare and how geopolitical choke points like the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt global supply chains. youtu.be/mdlsnQZpKLo?si…

From Paper to Hard Assets

"Prospective" is a slippery term, but the trend is clear... ...and very bullish for uranium.

Source: mining.com/web/whitehaven…

The successful execution of the new senior secured syndicated facility, with a headline rate of around 6%, further strengthens Whitehaven Coal's funding flexibility, extends its maturity profile, materially reduces funding cost and improves weighted average cost of capital. #Coal

Could we see another retest for Silver in a month or two? Sure. But most charts argue you are buying at a perfect risk/reward. Silver doesn't wait for consensus. Gold, Gold miners, Silver, Silver miners. Juniors are next 🚀

I was speaking with one of my mainland China factory contacts today. Apparently, a number of factories that relocated to Southeast Asia in recent years are now rapidly moving large parts of their production back to China. The main reason is that China has the energy capacity to keep factories running, whereas Southeast Asia is struggling with power shortages and skyrocketing energy costs. This is happening especially among factories that maintained some production in China or still have good contacts there who can take on the manufacturing.

Dr. Copper on da move

🔴Russia is cashing in on the Iran war: Russia's main oil tax revenue is set to double in April, to ~$9 billion, up from ~$3.8 billion in March, according to Reuters calculations. This comes as the average price of Russia's Urals crude jumped +73% in March, to $77 a barrel, the highest since October 2023 and well above the $59 assumed in the state budget. In Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, Urals reached as much as $114 a barrel. The Kremlin said it is receiving a "huge number" of requests for Russian energy as the global supply crisis deepens. However, there are limits to the windfall as Russia is still running a budget deficit of 4.58 trillion roubles in Q1 2026, or -1.9% of GDP. Ukraine's continued attacks on Russian energy infrastructure are also threatening production capacity and future earnings. The longer the Strait of Hormuz stays shut, the more Russia profits.

Private credit is in trouble When banks refuse to lend due to high risks, private credit steps in to fill the void and lures investors in with attractive yields. This might work when everything is fine… not in the biggest energy crisis in history. Now, the entire industry is under stress. - It’s ~$3.5T in size - The US accounts for ~$2T For comparison, the subprime mortgage market in 2007 was ~1.5T. The main problem with the private credit market is that the funds are highly liquid, but the underlying loans are highly illiquid. Investors, smelling smoke, want to get out before the fire breaks out... but are hitting redemption limits. - BlackRock: paying out $620M of $1.2B requested - Morgan Stanley: paying out $170M of ~$360M requested - Apollo: paying out $720M of $1.6B requested Cracks are emerging within the US financial infrastructure, and with each passing day that Hormuz remains shut, they will grow bigger.

Chinese authorities have announced that China will not be allowed to export sulphuric acid from next month, with the only exception being electronic‑grade sulphuric acid. This means that neither smelter acid nor sulphur‑based acid can be exported will be able to be exported.   China exported 4.6m t of sulphuric acid in 2025, with 32% shipped to Chile, 15% to Indonesia, 12% to Morocco, 12% to Saudi Arabia and 9% to India.   The latest trade data shows that China exported 385,000t of sulphuric acid in the first two months of 2026, around half the volume exported in the same period a year earlier, due to an export quota in place from January to April this year. This is extremely bullish for copper prices over the near term if the current situation in the Middle East continues disrupting the global supply chain for sulphur (and therefore acid). Kamoa-Kakula currently produces as a byproduct from its on-site smelter ~ 1,600 tonnes of sulphuric acid per day.  The acid is sold to other copper mines in the DRC Copperbelt that do require acid to operate. To be clear the operation does not consume acid in order to produce our 99.7%-pure copper anodes.