Crumbdon

@hendry_hugh Unpopular prediction: In a decade, we will look back and realize that we should have been using AI to MAXIMIZE human performance, not REPLACE it.

@onechancefreedm I don't want to see Amazon- or any other single company- dominate this market, but FedEx and UPS kind of had this coming. Their handling of parcels is atrocious, as is their complaint resolution. I avoid both whenever possible. Time for them to earn back business.

The Logistics Shock Is Bigger Than Amazon The selloff in FedEx and UPS is not just about Amazon entering deeper into logistics. That is the surface story. The deeper story is that the old parcel duopoly is being hit from multiple directions at the same time. Amazon is opening more of its logistics network to outside businesses, turning what used to be an internal delivery machine into a direct competitor. That means Amazon is no longer just a major customer or a retail platform. It is becoming a logistics platform. That threatens FedEx and UPS at the exact point in the cycle when their own operating environment is already deteriorating. The Duopoly Is Being Squeezed FedEx and UPS are real time sensors for the economy. They see weakness before a lot of official data does because packages, freight, returns, small business shipments, retail inventory flows, and industrial demand all move through their networks. When consumers slow, volumes weaken. When retailers get cautious, shipments soften. When small businesses struggle, package flow declines. When fuel costs rise, margins get squeezed. Now add Amazon into that mix. Amazon is not entering as a small competitor. It has massive scale, warehouses, trailers, aircraft, data, fulfillment density, and customer relationships. It can pressure pricing in a way smaller logistics firms cannot. That is why the market reaction was so violent. FedEx and UPS were not just hit by one headline. Investors saw a structural margin problem arriving during a cyclical slowdown. This Is Also An Energy Shock Story The missing piece is energy. The Strait of Hormuz crisis is not just an oil market event. It is a logistics event. Higher fuel costs flow directly into trucking, air freight, ocean shipping, warehousing, delivery routes, insurance, and inventory planning. Even when oil temporarily pulls back on ceasefire headlines or escorted shipping news, the physical system does not reset instantly. Supply chains absorb shocks with a lag. Contracts reprice later. Fuel surcharges reset later. Inventories run down later. Retailers adjust orders later. Consumers change spending behavior later. That is why the current calm can be misleading. The price shock hits first. The margin shock hits next. The demand shock arrives later. Why The Lag Matters Transportation companies often feel the real damage after the initial headline panic fades. A disruption in energy and shipping does not show up in one clean moment. It moves through the system slowly. Fuel costs rise. Delivery costs rise. Retailers protect margins. Consumers pull back. Businesses reduce orders. Carriers fight for volume. Pricing power weakens. That is how an energy shock becomes a freight recession. The risk is that investors are still treating this like a short term geopolitical disruption when it may be the beginning of a longer logistics reset. The Q4 2026 And Q1 2027 Risk Window The highest risk window is likely late 2026 into early 2027. That is when today’s energy shock, freight repricing, consumer exhaustion, retailer caution, and margin compression should become more visible. By then, companies will have worked through old contracts, depleted buffers, adjusted inventories, and started planning around a much more expensive and uncertain supply chain. That is also when the consumer may be weaker. Higher food, fuel, utility, insurance, and credit costs leave less room for discretionary spending. Less spending means fewer packages, fewer returns, fewer restocking orders, and weaker freight demand. So this is not just an Amazon story. It is Amazon attacking at the worst possible moment. FedEx and UPS are being squeezed by weaker demand from below, higher energy costs from above, and a platform scale competitor pressing the middle. That is why this matters. When logistics stocks break, they are often telling you something about the real economy before the official data admits it.

@fofothemofo @MostVpromotions You really think Ozempic, and not the countless hours of training for the match? I don't believe her to be the Oz type, unless she declares it herself.

@MostVpromotions She disappeared from the eye during that Disney fiasco and now comes back all Ozempic'd and her face redone. Lost respect for her.

Not too many more sleeps until Gina Carano steps back in the cage. The world will be watching. What’s your prediction?

@thequeenofrust 😄

@ChadWinward I’m not leaving!

Sorry I missed the Met Gala…I was busy representing GenX at the gym.

@eminiwizard Stuck there like velcro. Remarkably narrow open so far, at least by recent standards. Digestion day... or week?

7246 is today’s primary system pivot for ES

@thequeenofrust Wow- I have lived in Utah over 40 years, and I've never heard of Grafton before! I'll add that one to my list for the next time I'm in southern Utah. Thanks for the education, and the continued wonderful work that you do!

Good night from the pioneer cemetery in the ghost town of Grafton, Utah.

@eminiwizard @djito50k Good summary! I only traded the first 2-3 hrs, after that I decided I didn't have enough Dramamine 🙃 Thanks for taking the time to post- X is usually a thankless place... unfortunately 😕

@djito50k @ChadWinward Market hit new high IB. Rotations lower highs lower lows. Profit taking increased after 3:30 as weeklies covered. Not an easy trading day. Gutted shorts early and whacked pullback buyers pm. Enjoy your weekend 👊

If 7271.5/ 7271 busts , use 7265.5 pivot. Aggressive support

@eminiwizard They are really stomping on the trap door right here!

👀😁

#ES_F update ⚠️ Price hit 7300 To The Tick®️ and defended so far. That level mattered as discussed yesterday on X in ES. Now the risk shifts from that T target clip 🎯. Technical picture: 📉 Oscillator extremely peaked 🚨 Heavy resistance “bazooka blocks” overhead 📊 Lower band starting to turn down This is not an ideal area to chase longs here. This is an area to take some profit a big chunk of it and move the rest to entry. Scenarios ahead: 📉 Lose key support → 7035 → 6900 in play ⚡ Hold and squeeze → possible push higher, but risk/reward is poor here Bigger concern: 🛢️ Oil remains bullish a spike could pressure indices hard 🌍 Geopolitical risk building into the weekend 🌡️ VIX compressed → volatility expansion likely This setup has echoes of prior topping behavior. Game plan: ✔️ Be cautious at this T target 7300 highs ✔️ Don’t chase extended moves ✔️ Let levels break before committing Something feels like it’s building and ready to burst. Now we watch how the market opens next week Sunday futures. Be safe out there we are living in crazy times that's 100% for sure. Full breakdown on ES in the video below 👇

@RealTStevenson Respectfully-- as a fellow Utah resident, I'm kind of surprised you can get behind a privacy invasion center with huge impact to natural resources, especially water. This desert state can't afford that. Jobs gained are not worth the net cost, IMOHO.

Good Create jobs, grow the Utah economy, and beat China.

@opd6799 @TicTocTick I'm seriously considering doing that very thing right now!

@TicTocTick Sell my hybrid now and by a Lexus/toyota 8 cylinder??

Do NOT buy hybrid now. Time to buy was before war. Thief dealers will charge you a 10% premium which can be 5-10 grand dependent on model. You won’t save 5 grand in gas. No way. Gas will dip below $3.5 soon (by July) , that’s when you wanna buy.

@Darknessly0 @Rainmaker1973 Tesla 'killed the gas station'?? Please expound....

@Rainmaker1973 Tesla killed the gas station with Superchargers. NAMX is trying to do the same for hydrogen with swappable capsules. Interesting approach!

The NAMX HUV is a hydrogen-powered car developed by the French company NAMX in collaboration with Pininfarina, featuring a refueling time of just 5 minutes and an autonomy range of 1,500 km, using replaceable hydrogen capsules for its fuel source.

@eminiwizard But good entertainment 😅

@ChadWinward lol. Too much salt, fat finger 😁

Targets have been posted for those who follow my ideas. 7246 next pivot, 7250 NRO ahead of the 2264.75 objective ES

@UniqueTrades Somebody spent way too much on their SPX 7200 hats to let them go to waste 😄 Should hold fine the rest of this week, but next month when the real effects of high oil tear through the consumer economy... Not to mention jet fuel shortages in Europe, and the ripple effects 😱

Im personally sitting on hands, tried a countertrend short vs 1st hr high area, but no follow thru No need to get cut up here, keep risks/losses small

RTH sellers started off good this morning, disappeared Price has held trending support area 7158-7168 and consolidated above 1st hr high 7200.75 Buyers have control of the intraday ball. See if they can score vs 7211.5 ONH and 7223.25 ATHs We still have AAPL ER, post RTH close

Pay attention when PK speaks!

@ThePivotKing Thanks as always for taking the time for us here on X. Your views are always very valuable and appreciated!

#ES_F be careful folks. From what I am seeing with price action and the $VIX something smells and smells big-time. Some oversized institutional blocks at the upper end here on ES upper band as well turned down. This weekend is going to be INTERESTING!!! 😉 Will post a video on X here with regards to ES and the VIX shortly sometime in the afternoon. Be Careful out there.

@TicTocTick Their innovation died with Jobs, unfortunately. But they still build some decent products (just not the best of everything), and have a loyal following. Agreed- overvalued, but far from dead.

This naval guy saying appl is dead. You agree? I don’t think he’s good when it comes to markets but he knows how to talk. Why is Apple dead they have cpu and all in-house, modem also. Overvalued ? Yes.. But dead 💀?

@Jon83989650 @AlejandroEV66 Surprisingly, there are actually still quite a few DRIVERS in the USA.... So perhaps only useless to you

@AlejandroEV66 Without FSD it’s useless for road trips. License FSD and I’ll buy one immediately.

Official EPA range for the iX3 is now listed on BMW’s website: 434 miles! With 400 kW charging, this thing is going to be a road trip monster.

@TicTocTick Uuummmm.... Except for possibly a stray marina in a high-demand tourist area, there's nowhere in the US charging $10/gal for fuel

For those of you who don’t wanna pay $10 a gallon for gas and also don’t wanna drive an EV, consider this beauty. 300 horsepurrs. 45 miles battery range. 50 miles per gallon. Total 650 miles range. 0 to 60 in 4.9 seconds. $34k plus tax.