Chellyges

@RayneWothbaum Huh

How has this not become a meme yet?

@themattharbaugh $CSGP isn’t going to cut its homes.com AI or marketing spend, Zillow Rentals is eating Apartments.com’s lunch by undercutting. Suite is largely defensible against AI… but who is to say more apartment searching doesn’t move to the LLMs? I’m not convinced

Polen Capital Focus Fund is down -17% in Q1 Buys: $LRCX, $META, $ROL Sold: $ABT, $ADBE, $BSX, $PAYC, $INTU Added to: $CSGP, $SHOP, $NOW Trimmed: $AMZN

@Investor_NICK_ Xbox is only dying because after Fortnite, companies just stopped trying to make new good games for some reason. Huge opportunity there imo for a company

$RBLX … like Xbox … is gaming slowly dying???

@Larryjamieson_ Yeah okay agree. I just meant revenue growth was known here from the price increases and credit bureau reported vols. Still think they rip at least the next 3 earnings. Idk if I’m an owner in between, but likely on the day like this one

@Chellyges The vol gains were not really known, nor is how the vols might taper off in the coming q(s). Nor was direct adoption truly known either. Guide still conservative imo. Comments about expected loss of share we meaningful imo

$FICO

@DeepIceValue Wow this is crazy. Basically buying a handful of different names just to be exposed to one bet: companies labeled as AI losers will revert

Lindsell Train fund has significantly trimmed their $GOOG position and bought $FICO and $INTU.. 🤔🤔

@HeroDividend Apply that to the entire insurance industry, that’s basically how the whole thing is

While every company in the world is implementing AI into their business Berkshire Hathaway is a $1 trillion company and their website looks like thus

@RaphiSavitz @DanielSLoeb1 Zillow gaining share vs Apartments, AI risk to apartments, homes, and nominally Suite

@DanielSLoeb1 Residential business def a battleground but any concerns about their more mature businesses?

Thank you for your attention to this matter. $CSGP youtube.com/watch?v=7hx4gd…

@Larryjamieson_ Raise*

@Larryjamieson_ Feels like it’s gonna trade like tobacco stocks in the 2000s. I agree with the bulls that it’s not gonna be displaced, but at the same time, I have no idea where any multiple expansion comes from as they’ll stay under regulatory strutiny. Hope the bottom is before next price raid

0 reason for Lansing to pull back on the pricing lever now. May as well yeet another 100% in mortgage next year

@financialsamura Look, sell-side obviously has its faults, but I can’t stand the kings of hindsight going after them for not downgrading prior.

One of the best jobs to get out of college is being a Wall Street analyst. Upgrade after the stock goes up huge, downgrade after the stock collapses. Stick with consensus and you’ll make $500K - $1 million a year on average. It’s a great life. Same thing with being a Wall Street strategist or economist. Doesn’t matter if you are wrong if you can sell and be persuasive. It’s not your own money you’re managing. Love this downgrade of $NOW by UBS. PT slashed from $170 to $100 after the stock already collapsed to $83. Give the analyst a raise! 💵

@commonsenseplay Definitely still has more legs to run unfortunately. But at some point, a few of these names are worth picking at

PEAK FEAR ON SOFTWARE RIGHT NOW. TIME TO BUY. BOOKMARK THIS.

@ContrarianCurse Legit impossible to hold anything right now. No clue what turns this around either… but it’ll have to eventually if the fundamentals hold… right?

Holding any software long when everyone is so skittish that a post from a blog with 800 readers a month can hit it -5%

@fiscorainvest @ReneSellmann I don’t see this happening. That would require an incentive for a lender to pull VS over FICO. The only way to guarantee a VS loan in the MBS is if you’re the one submitting it. And as a result, your loan will have the risk premium attached, so there is no incentive

An interesting bear case I saw the other day is if $FICO loans get lumped in with VantageScore by the FHFA. If the regulators mandate that both scores are interchangeable for GSE-conforming loans, investors might eventually be unable to pick which kind of MBS they’re buying into. Long $FICO, not financial advice. DYOR. The "problem" is fungibility, if FICO backed pools and Vantage-backed pools become indistinguishable in the secondary market (UMBS), I personally believe $FICO loses its ability to command a premium for its specific credit-risk "engine." In my view it’s unlikely for the FHFA to force that level of market blindness, the differentiation in the secondary market is where I’ve historically thought the moat of $FICO comes from, any threat to that is worrisome, In my opinion.

Fair Isaac 90-second pitch 👇🏻 $FICO

@ContrarianCurse And with a million more headlines to come out over the next year and beyond, I struggle to see how investing in any of them can be profitable right now. I’m going to wait until a new narrative comes in before buying the ones I think ultimately will be fine

Compressing multiples in tech may just rightfully reflect a period of competitive uncertainty that it hasn’t faced in decades

@gordocap18 You got math for this somewhere?

@Larryjamieson_ I don’t have a stake in it, but have covered it for a little while. If management can actually execute on everything they’re saying, this thing looks ungodly cheap right now. My current biggest worry is if they’re actually able to push price thru the direct model regulatorily

Yet another day in the tough headlines factory for our favourite consumer credit scoring company

Trying to figure out why AI is polling among voters as deeply unpopular.

@AdamZHerman He’s too stupid for the NHL. Bro takes like 3 needless penalties a game

Potential third-pairing defenseman, IMO. It's going to come down to a lot of little things. Slightly quicker outlets, a bit more burst, footwork to get to pucks first, etc.

@GabGrowth VantageScore, the competitor (or likely soon to be), lowered their prices, presumably to grab share asap once they’re able to be used for mortgage loans sold to the GSEs and the secondary mtg market

$FICO -6% What's the new bear case for the business today?