Chris Dover

I'm not your typical market participant. While Wall Street lifers built their careers in Manhattan, I built my trading systems from war zones. Iraq. Mexico. Colombia. Haiti. Gaza. Plenty of others I won't list. When rockets were inbound, I couldn't watch my screens. I needed systems that worked without me, because I might not make it to the close. Turns out that perspective still works. I don't panic at headlines. I don't second-guess every dip. My systems tell me more than CNBC ever could. Every morning I write an email about what my systems are seeing. Not what the news is saying. Not reactive, just following the plan. Fund managers read it. Traders who move billions read it. Politicians read it (that one surprised me). People managing their retirement read it. If you read it before your day starts, you might stop overreacting to every headline designed to make you question everything. It's free → pollinatetrading.com

@6Voodoo Yeah we actually feel pretty salty when we call the CO the Skipper in front of the lads

Had one of my prior USMC NCOs call me “the skipper” one time, and I still get choked up thinking about it

@infantrydort Amen

I don’t know why the world is freaking out. This is our natural state. The one we’ve been in for thousands of years. Chaos and pain is the rule of human existence. Peace is the rarest of exceptions. It’s just not rare to you, because you’ve been sheltered. All of us have.

💀💀

This is because the A-10 is the Bald Eagle and George Washington combined

6 new TSMC chip fabs being built in the US I mean sure China bad, don't take Taiwan, but how hard are we really going to try when we roll up the entire Americas into a literal vertical supply chain Every day that we become less reliant on someone else is another day Taiwan is on the menu

Shawn just over here forgetting that half of China’s oil comes through the Strait of Hormuz. They are hurting far more than we are right now. He also forgets that we still have the Nimitz CSG in the Pacific and the Reagan, Vinson, and Roosevelt able to deploy within 30 days if necessary. Their analysis here is laughable…

@korzewarrior @Newsforce @davidgoggins Have you read his books, listened to a single speech of his? His logical reasoning of going enlisted seems obvious.

51-YEAR-OLD GOGGINS REENLISTS AND CHOOSES SUFFERING AGAIN @davidgoggins has reenlisted in the U.S. Air Force at age 51 as a master sergeant, entering the elite Special Warfare Training Wing after receiving an age waiver. The move places him back into one of the military’s toughest pipelines, where most candidates decades younger fail, despite Goggins already completing Navy SEAL training, Army Ranger School, and Air Force Tactical Air Controller training earlier in his career. Most people midlife crisis buy a sports car, he picked a two-year training pipeline designed to break humans. Source: NewsForce

@agnostoxxx Great read, thanks Shrub!

“Asymmetric Warfare” . Thoughts on the current market setup. 🌳🙏 open.substack.com/pub/shrubbery/…

@Dcpcooks 🤣🤦

Who is this fool that takes risk

Brent at 111

@4thTroglodyte Chile is great, as is Argentina and my beloved Colombia

@ChrisDMacro Yea I prefer Chile for sure. Love the new President. Would retire to Chile if I could. Peru has issues.

Goldman is being way too cavalier about Peru Goldman picks Peru as the fastest-growing major LatAm economy in 2026. Current account surplus. Inflation at 2.2% vs 6.6% for the LA7. Driven by record gold and copper. The spreadsheet looks clean. If you read my daily intel brief, you know on the ground it isn't clean at all. Peru is on its tenth president in eight years. Mining operations face organized robbery and extortion. Protests shut down production regularly. Chile is building a wall on the Peruvian border. Record copper prices don't help if your supply chain gets hijacked between the mine and the port. The country risk is dramatically underpriced. I'll go deeper on Peru in a dedicated piece.

@Jason_C_F @Adansonia9 Excellent points

Russia wins EU. The EU has always supported Putin and continue to fund their war machine. Merkel has always trusted him. And now they are talking the need for cheap energy and winter is over. Nonsense. DT should just say all Ukraine money is tied to EU full stoppage of buying Russian energy including on secondary mkt through India.

@Adansonia9 @Jason_C_F True that

@Jason_C_F @ChrisDMacro They still have the North Sea. A fever is a form of oven cleanse

@PaToFe4 i havne't used it enough yet, I'm tinkering and figuring it out

@ChrisDMacro Hell yeah! MiniMax 2.5 @ a 3bit quant is my eventual target for the 4x rig. How’re you liking AirLLM?

OpenAI and Mistral AI just dropped new budget-friendly language models designed for cost-conscious developers. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 mini and nano offer cheaper alternatives to their flagship model, while Mistral's Small 4 brings open-source flexibility. Key Points: - GPT-5.4 mini performs within 5% of flagship GPT-5.4 on programming benchmarks - GPT-5.4 nano costs just 20 cents per million input tokens for basic tasks - Mistral Small 4 features 119 billion parameters with adjustable reasoning effort - Small 4 reduces completion time by 40% in latency-optimized configurations All models support multimodal inputs including text and images

@DonQuixoteTilt excellent point

Great insight from Chris about what is actively happening in wider sphere. Meanwhile European politicians still reject local hydrocarbons to show “climate leadership” while the global realpolitik reshapes around them making their economic and industrial bases untenable.

@ASbyl57842 @topperwhopper @joekent16jan19 Sure didn't, but that's the cycle, and why I was asking his thoughts

@ChrisDMacro @topperwhopper @joekent16jan19 وهل كنت تتوقع أن يستقبلوك كمحتل للعراق بالورود !!!

After much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, effective today. I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby. It has been an honor serving under @POTUS and @DNIGabbard and leading the professionals at NCTC. May God bless America.

@PaToFe4 Ive been tinkering with Qwen 3.5 and maxmini Also using AirLLM

@ChrisDMacro Something I’m really interested in testing is the 9B version of Qwen3.5 - You can tell it’s a tiny model, but it’s fast. Curious to know whether it’ll pencil out to have a smaller model try and fail multiple times vs a larger model.

@PaToFe4 What model(s) on what device(s)?

@ChrisDMacro Be interesting to see how nano performs - $0.20/1M is right about where I’m at per token on power costs for local inference. Looks like it’s $1.25/1M on output tokens.