JasonCF

626 posts

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JasonCF

JasonCF

@Jason_C_F

“Don’t confront me with my failures; I had not forgotten them”. “Time has come. Let us be brave.”

earth Katılım Şubat 2023
502 Takip Edilen375 Takipçiler
Just Another Pod Guy
Just Another Pod Guy@TMTLongShort·
Everyone quiet the goat is speaking 🐐 Kotkin on Iran 🇮🇷
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JasonCF
JasonCF@Jason_C_F·
@ChrisDMacro @GBNT1952 this is where lithograph machine supply comes into play where neither the US nor China control a critical element and then there is the issue of helium
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Chris Dover
Chris Dover@ChrisDMacro·
6 new TSMC chip fabs being built in the US I mean sure China bad, don't take Taiwan, but how hard are we really going to try when we roll up the entire Americas into a literal vertical supply chain Every day that we become less reliant on someone else is another day Taiwan is on the menu
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JasonCF
JasonCF@Jason_C_F·
@TheShortBear and China has to pay market for energy for first time in decades
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THE SHORT BEAR
THE SHORT BEAR@TheShortBear·
Wouldn’t be surprising if we end up seeing Iran’s off-ramp terms quietly accepted, at least in part. Something along the lines of: A ~10% levy on shipping through the Strait Partial or full relief on sanctions for Iranian oil The shipping levy alone could generate roughly $70B annually, helping offset wartime damage, especially when combined with renewed oil revenues. At first glance, today’s developments look contradictory, with the U.S. escalating militarily while potentially easing pressure economically. But that may be the point: create maximum leverage upfront, then offer a structured exit that both sides can accept without appearing to back down.
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Nick G.
Nick G.@nickgiva1·
Lagarde takes 20 minutes to say: "It could go up, it could go down. Don't know. But when it happens, the data will show us what happened." 🤷‍♀️ Pay that woman her enormous tax free salary. She effing earned it. 🤮
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JasonCF
JasonCF@Jason_C_F·
@AGHamilton29 we need a Tetlock score next to everyone's name that is on TV or writing in MSM
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AG
AG@AGHamilton29·
Starting to think that the “experts” who pretend that the regime in Tehran losing most of their leadership, their entire navy, their missile supply chain, and most if their military capabilities isn’t evidence of them losing might be the problem
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JasonCF
JasonCF@Jason_C_F·
@trentkelp agree. US boots on the ground is insane.
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JasonCF
JasonCF@Jason_C_F·
@trentkelp @realDonaldTrump this is nonsense from Bessent and he knows it. The pipe diameter is what it is. flow rate cannot change. Dont know who is he talking too
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JasonCF
JasonCF@Jason_C_F·
@trentkelp a ban is dumb since we cannot consume that much light sweet. Minimum domestic sale at cap price ok that might work
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JasonCF
JasonCF@Jason_C_F·
@LukeGromen @vtchakarova hence the trade the hostage scenario until equilibrium is achieved or until the next US president that prefer the US under China rule which is my base case (i lived in Asia for 25 years. this just seems obvious to me)
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Velina Tchakarova
Velina Tchakarova@vtchakarova·
You must understand that in new Cold War, commodities & supply chains will get much more expensive for those middle powers that refuse to join a bigger club - it’s either US or DragonBear. If you are on your own without a strategic membership and contribution, you‘ll pay more.
Velina Tchakarova@vtchakarova

Except for China which pays below $100 because of the DragonBear and Iran. And India which relies on Russian discount. And all the rest of clients within the DragonBear framework.

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DCP
DCP@Dcpcooks·
Took a short in zb again If the Iran keeps escalating strikes on critical energy sites and get the Houthi’s involved in the Red Sea we could see bonds take a hit here 111 handle is possible
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JasonCF
JasonCF@Jason_C_F·
@SpecialSitsNews it will come down to if arab states start offering escorts through the strait or not. The arab nations will have to solve the end game equation.
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Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
We are witnessing the live chaos of one of the worst administrations to take office since George Washington. Will go down in the annals of history as one of the most arrogant clusterf***s known to mankind.
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JasonCF
JasonCF@Jason_C_F·
@ianbremmer have you actually heard one with boots on the ground?
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ian bremmer
ian bremmer@ianbremmer·
i’ve yet to hear a workable near term (next 4-6 weeks) plan for how to open the strait that doesn’t involve us boots on the ground.
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JEFFERY @TriggeredCapital
Simple Geopolitics from here! “If Iran attacks GCC energy infrastructure this week in retaliation, then we are far from over and they are far from destroyed!” This is the best tell since this all started! Me after thinking this! @IiiRicher @deerpointmacro @everytimeicash go ahead and barrow this amazing thesis for your subs!
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JasonCF
JasonCF@Jason_C_F·
@trentkelp legit issue. the pressure balance for the Qatar side is no joke. this was error in judgement
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JEFFERY @TriggeredCapital
DON'T READ IF YOU DO NOT LIKE REALITY!
SungHoon Lee, IQ 276@sungleeiq

🚨🚨🚨 ISRAEL JUST BOMBED IRAN'S GAS FIELD. YOU HAVE NO IDEA WHAT THEY JUST TRIGGERED. 🚨🚨🚨 South Pars is not just any gas field. It supplies 25% of the WORLD'S liquefied natural gas. A quarter of the planet's energy. Gone in one airstrike. Let that sink in. Here's what happens next — step by step: 💀 STEP 1 — Iran previously warned that if their energy infrastructure was targeted, they would FLATTEN Qatar's LNG complex — the LARGEST on Earth — into a parking lot. 💀 STEP 2 — If Qatar's LNG complex is hit, Europe loses 20% of its gas imports OVERNIGHT. Gas prices don't rise — they EXPLODE. 💀 STEP 3 — Oil shoots past $150/barrel. Every economy on Earth feels it within 48 hours. Inflation goes vertical. Markets BLEED. 💀 STEP 4 — The Strait of Hormuz gets shut down. 21% of the world's daily oil passes through there. That's 21 MILLION barrels PER DAY — GONE. 💀 STEP 5 — China, India, Japan, South Korea — ALL of them depend on that strait. This isn't a Middle East problem anymore. This is a GLOBAL energy collapse. ⚠️ The U.S. bombed Iraq for 20 years over oil. Iran just had its energy lifeline attacked — a nation of 90 million people who believe in martyrdom. ⚠️ Their response won't be proportional. It will be DISPROPORTIONATE. They're showing you "precision strikes" and "limited operations." They're NOT showing you the chain reaction that's about to unfold. Every single escalation this month has been met with a BIGGER escalation. Not smaller. BIGGER. This is not de-escalation. This is a countdown. Prepare accordingly. 🚨🚨🚨 This post is being throttled. Like + RT to keep it alive. ⚠️

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JasonCF
JasonCF@Jason_C_F·
@trentkelp did they following through yesterday on their threat? is this the 4th or 5th time they have called for evacuations?
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JEFFERY @TriggeredCapital
OIL! $CL 🚨🚨🚨 $USO $NG Iran's Tasnim publishes list of facilities in Saudi, UAE and Qatar. Iran: Some Gulf energy sites are now legitimate targets - Tasnim Iran will hit enemy sites previously thought to be safe - Fars 📷 Iran to retaliate against attack on energy infrastructure - Fars
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JasonCF
JasonCF@Jason_C_F·
@TheStudyofWar not sure i get your point. Explain why US needs a functioning Strait relative to others?
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Institute for the Study of War
MORE: A failure to demonstrate the will and ability to deny Iran the ability to disrupt traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will make it much harder to deter Iran from future disruptions. Stopping the war in current conditions would thus represent a major strategic challenge that the United States or Israel would need to contend with in future rounds of conflict with a regime that will continue to be a committed adversary.
Institute for the Study of War tweet media
Institute for the Study of War@TheStudyofWar

NEW | Evening Update: The United States and Israel are currently attempting to use force to prevent Iran from disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. A weakened regime that remains in power after this war would be able to disrupt shipping whenever and for however long it pleases with little effort if its current, relatively limited, strike campaign on shipping proves sufficient to cause the US and Israel to surrender. A failure to demonstrate the will and ability to deny Iran the ability to disrupt traffic will make it enormously harder to deter Iran from future disruptions. Stopping the war in current conditions would thus represent a major strategic challenge that the United States or Israel would need to contend with in future rounds of conflict with a regime that will continue to be a committed adversary. Other Key Takeaways + Full Update⬇️(1/3) The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed that it struck the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy headquarters in Tehran on March 16. It stated that commanders used the headquarters to direct IRGC Navy forces and plan operations against Israel and other regional countries. The IDF confirmed that it killed Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Ali Larijani, who was a long-time regime insider and had held many senior posts, in airstrikes in Tehran overnight on March 16 and 17. Larijani’s death likely weakens a key faction in competition with the Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei-IRGC nexus, but it will not end the ongoing competition. A long-time observer of drone operations in Ukraine suggested on March 17 that the drone footage posted by likely Iranian-backed Iraqi militia front group Saraya Awliya al Dam is consistent with a fiber optic first-person view (FPV) drone. The Iranian proxy group’s decision to advertise its possession of such a weapon would be an explicit threat aimed at the United States. The combined force has continued to strike Iranian ballistic missile infrastructure to degrade Iran’s missile capabilities. The combined force has continued to degrade Iranian air capabilities in order to maintain air superiority over parts of Iran. The combined force continued to strike Iranian defense industrial sites. The combined force struck a number of internal security targets.

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