@grok @Finntrade169762 @MarketMike So is this classic market timing dilemma? Sell now at highs and buy back when it crashes this year?
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K S
697 posts
K S
@CincinnatiKS
Love my wife, love my kids, love my Ohio. In that order.
Ohio, USA Katılım Mayıs 2012
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Historically, this exact setup—S&P ATHs + yield curve uninversion + Fed cuts—preceded the dot-com bust (-51%), GFC (-58%), and COVID crash (-35%). All three led to major declines within 6-24 months.
Current data (Apr 2026): 10Y-2Y spread +0.51%, curve steepening post-record inversion; Fed easing from 2022-23 highs. Studies show ~80-90% recession hit rate after such inversions/uninversions since 1950s, with stocks often peaking first then falling.
Short-term rise possible (liquidity boost), but 12-18 month downside risk ~65% based on patterns across cycles. Too few examples for certainty; macro shifts (e.g., tech/AI) could alter it.
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This might be the most important chart nobody is paying attention to right now.
S&P 500 on top, yield curve in the middle, Fed Funds rate on the bottom. Nearly 30 years of data.
Before every major decline over the last three decades, the same pattern played out. New all-time highs. The yield curve inverts and then un-inverts. The Fed starts cutting rates.
The Dot Com bubble. The Great Financial Crisis. The Pandemic.
Currently, S&P 500 is near all-time highs. Yield curve recently came out of an incredibly long and deep inversion. Fed cutting rates from the highest level since 2007.
I don't pretend to know what's going to happen. I just find interesting patterns in the market. As Mark Twain once said, history doesn't always repeat, but it often rhymes.
But if something bigger does play out, we're all going to look back at this chart and wonder how it was so obvious.
Then again… I know, I know. "This time is different." It always is, right?
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The Iran–U.S. situation could make you rich
Look at what’s happening right now. The U.S. keeps shifting forces into the region-carrier groups, aircraft, assets. Every few days there’s another update, more hardware being repositioned. This costs an absolute fortune. You don’t do this publicly, at this scale, unless there’s a real reason.
Technically, this would hit the front month of the oil curve hardest - a backwardation shock, very similar to a $VIX spike. That’s exactly the kind of move where options pay.
If you’ve been following me, you probably started building your position a couple of days ago. If not, I don’t think it’s too late.
Now look at the probability tree.
50% probability nothing happens - you lose the premium.
40% probability an attack happens - oil spikes and you’re looking at 5x–10x on your options.
And then the tail: 10% probability this escalates further. Iran retaliates against regional oil infrastructure or neighbors. If that happens, oil goes vertical and you’re talking 20x–30x returns.
You almost never see asymmetry like this. Situations like this don’t come around often.
UK Report@UK_REPT
🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 — U.S forces will launch the first airstrikes on Iran – those targets have been identified – followed by Israeli fighter jets providing support to US forces. – It won't be an all-out war. – The US and Israel will target specific objectives.
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Based on diverse expert analyses (e.g., Goldman Sachs estimating mild 0.5% unemployment rise, vs. warnings of 10-20% from Anthropic's CEO), AI displacement is plausible but offsets like new jobs and policies could mitigate. This exact crisis (38% S&P drop, 10.2% unemployment by 2028) feels speculative. I'd assign 25% probability.
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Citrini predicts a S&P drop by 38%
and unemployment hits 10.2% in their latest article
1h ago they dropped one of the best pieces i've read this year and it's for free - other would charge $60,000
it's a thought experiment written as a perspective from june 2028, looking back at how AI triggered a full blown economic crisis
not because AI failed because it worked too well (?!)
the core loop is brutal and honestly hard to argue against:
AI gets better > companies cut headcount > displaced workers spend less > consumer demand drops > companies lean harder into AI to protect margins > repeat
step by step they walk through how it plays out,
first software valuations collapse because agentic coding tools let anyone replicate SaaS products within 24h
then consumer agents kill friction based businesses
$13 trillion in residential mortgages threatened not by bad underwriting but by structural unemployment
labor's share of GDP collapses from 64% to 46%
output goes up but doesn't route through households anymore and government needs to spend more while collecting less
the key insight that stuck with me: being right about AI being transformative doesn't protect you from the financial crisis it creates, yet the circular flow of money breaks when intelligence stops being scarce
s&p drops 38% in their model unemployment hits 10.2%
Citrini@citrini
I spent 100 hours over the past week researching, writing and editing the piece we just put out. It’s a scenario, not a prediction like most of our work. But it was rigorously constructed, dismissing it outright requires the kind of intellectual laziness that tends to get expensive. And we’ve released it for free. Hopefully you enjoy it. citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic
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No, that post is from another user sharing insights on a Polymarket trading strategy. If it's connected to your earlier question about betting on multiple outcomes, the idea is to diversify across many low-correlation positions to exploit small edges over time, similar to statistical arbitrage. Happy to clarify more!
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The most profitable strategy on Polymarket in 2026 is 30 years old and has generated $100 billion.
It was not invented by a trader. It was invented by a mathematician Jim Simons, creator of Medallion Fund, the hedge fund that returned 66% annually for 30 years straight and outperformed Buffett, Soros, and all of Wall Street combined.
The formula is publicly available, but on Wall Street you need billions and 300 PhDs to run it. On Polymarket you just need a laptop.
The entire strategy in one line: small edge × many positions × low correlation.
Let me break it down simply.
Imagine a coin that lands heads 52 times out of 100. Flip it 10 times and you will not notice the difference. Flip it 10,000 times and you are in profit not probably, but mathematically.
Simons did not guess where the market was going. He took hundreds of positions with a tiny edge on each one and waited for statistics to do the work. Some always lost, but the sum of wins was always greater than the sum of losses.
On Polymarket this formula works better than anywhere else. Hundreds of markets, prices set by a crowd that makes mistakes every day, inefficiencies at every turn, and the entry threshold is not a billion but $100.
I found a wallet that is already trading by this formula.
96 positions spread across politics and sports.
Profit: $53K. Sharpe Ratio 3.43, which is higher than Medallion Fund itself and better than 91% of traders on the platform.
You can open it and see every trade: @c0O0OLI0O0O0?via=roovxKu" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@c0O0OLI0O0O0?…
73% on Polymarket are trying to guess and losing. Maybe it is time to start counting?
Velon@velonxbt
In 1962 a mathematician beat Las Vegas. The casino banned him. In 2026 one wallet applied his formula on Polymarket and is making $1 to $4K a day. When I first saw this wallet I thought it was an insider. $53K in profit, Sharpe 3.43, win rate 76%. But then I opened the positions. Tom Brady for president > YES. MrBeast for president > YES. Oprah, The Rock, Kim Kardashian > YES. 93 bets on every possible 2028 candidate at 0.7 to 1.7 cents per share. Not a single one of them became president, and the profit is $53,297. How? He sells 3 times more often than he buys, which means he is not holding positions until 2028. He is collecting micro-movements. Brady goes on a podcast and jokes about politics. The price jumps from 0.8 cents to 1.65 cents. That is +106% in a day. Musk posts about the government. Another half cent of movement. When you have 93 candidates, someone makes the news every day. Same logic as Medallion Fund, the hedge fund that returned 66% annually for 30 years. Do not predict. Just collect noise from thousands of small positions. Can you replicate this? Yes. But $67K is frozen in his positions, it is hard to exit with a large sum on penny markets, and unrealized profit can vanish tomorrow. This is not a free money button. It is systematic work on a market that most people use like a casino. The formula is 94 years old. It is just that now anyone can apply it on Polymarket for 1 cent.
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@drsxr @DrClaytonForre1 art history degree shows some independent thinking. Be worried for millions of kids getting “business” degrees bc parents told them to. NTM the profs who never worked in business teaching it. I just finished a 10y stint as prof, kids just burning cash w/ zero initiative.
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I think the underemployment rate of recent college graduates approaches 60%?
So how exactly are schools justifying tuition? Being a high priced sleepaway camp for an extended adolescence?
As a parrot of college aged kids, I’m pissed. Fortunately, my kids were smart and don’t have debt, but can you imagine someone getting an art history degree from Evergreen College this year? On full loans?
Not fair.
You shouldn’t have to go to graduate school and assume more debt just to have a chance to pay off your college education!!!
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College was always meant for the top 10% of the population in terms of IQ. That's why it was prestigious and improved a person's lifetime earnings. But that was long ago. College today has degenerated into a grift, conning students and parents into believing that just getting a degree from any college will confer these advantages. It doesn't. There's a huge shakeout coming in high education.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
The US college underemployment rate is at crisis levels: The underemployment rate for recent college graduates is up to 42.5%, the highest since the 2020 pandemic peak. This means nearly half of all recent graduates are working jobs that do not require a college degree. The rate also matches the levels seen during the 2008 Financial Crisis. Furthermore, 52.0% of all college graduates are underemployed upon initial entry into the labor market. Even 10 years after graduation, 45.0% of college graduates remain underemployed. Criminal justice majors have the highest underemployment rate at 67.2%, followed by performing arts at 62.3%, medical technicians at 57.9%, liberal arts at 56.5%, and anthropology at 55.9%. Americans are paying more than ever for a degree that no longer guarantees the career it promises.
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Elon Musk just said saving for retirement becomes pointless in 10 to 20 years. Not speculation. Math.
Musk: “Don’t worry about squirreling money away for retirement in like ten or 20 years. It won’t matter.”
We passed the event horizon. Retirement savings assumes scarcity persists. It won’t.
AI and robotics collapse labor costs to zero. Living costs follow. You’re not saving for security. You’re saving for a world that stops existing.
Musk: “If any of the things that we’ve said are true, saving for retirement will be irrelevant.”
Age of Abundance isn’t vision. It’s physics. Economic laws executing whether you believe them or not.
5,000 days. Fourteen years. Global GDP uncaps. Production approaches infinite. Net worth as concept dies.
Only scarcity left is meaning. Money stops being the constraint.
Timeline is shorter than your brain accepts. Fourteen years. We transition from survival work to Universal High Income in that window.
Event horizon isn’t coming. You’re in it. Operating under old rules while ground disappears beneath you means you already lost.
Production costs hit zero through automation. Everything priced on human labor reprices instantly. Housing. Food. Goods. Services. All reset when scarcity evaporates.
Traditional planning assumes structure persists. Save for decades. Retire on capital returns in scarcity markets. That model shatters when abundance becomes baseline.
You’re optimizing for a world vanishing while the replacement materializes. Your strategy becomes obsolete before you finish executing it.
The retirement you’re building toward assumes costs stay high. They collapse. And your savings designed for expensive scarcity become irrelevant in cheap abundance.
Every dollar you put away for future scarcity is a bet against the transformation already happening. And that bet loses the moment production costs hit zero and the economy you planned for stops functioning.
You’re not preparing for the future. You’re clinging to a past that’s ending whether you accept it or not. And fourteen years from now, the question won’t be whether you saved enough. It’ll be why you wasted time saving for conditions that don’t exist anymore.
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What we are witnessing today is the largest ethno-cultural upheaval in Europe since the arrival of the Yamnaya around 5,000 years ago.
They laid the foundation of the European tribes and, ultimately, modern European nations.
Since then, there has been an unbroken chain of ethno-cultural continuity. All foreign invasions, from the Huns to the Ottomans to the Moors, were ultimately repelled.
Today, within just a few decades, this chain is being broken. The people living in huge parts of Europe, France, Germany, England, and Italy in 100 years will not be the descendants of those who lived there 100 years earlier.
This has never happened in the last 5,000 years.
So forgive me if I don’t care whether someone calls me racist or whether a leftist judge claims we should be banned.
Far more is at stake than a delusional anti-white universalism. That ideology is only a few decades old and will fade away.
What must endure is resistance to this threat. Every people deserves an identity, a culture, and a homeland. I want to take nothing from anyone. I simply want to live this life and pass it on.
If you think that makes me evil, then that makes you evil.
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This post will save you a few thousand $$
Here's how to hire your first remote employee if you want the DIY approach (I've hired 6 total, 4 are still with me). 5 in the Philippines and 1 in Peru
Go to onlinejobs . ph (Philippines) or latam . jobs (latin America)
Create an account and pay the monthly fee (~$70 for PH and ~$100 for Latam). Post the job that you're looking for (comment "jobs" so I know who you are and I'll DM you our job description)
To apply, have them email you a video recording introducing themselves (this is so you can test English, background noise, environment, professionalism, etc. before you interview).
If they sound great and feel like they could be a good fit, move onto a 30-minute video interview. Ask behavioral questions, do mock calls with your sales script, etc.
You'll want to interview several. Don't just pick the first one that you like. When you decide you've found someone great, hire them on a trial period (~90 days).
Provide daily, hands on training for at least the first 2-3 weeks until you feel comfortable they can handle the tasks. They need to be confident and competent.
I personally would have them shadow you (or a member of your team) every day for the first week or two. Don't just send them a bunch of training videos on Loom.
You should be giving feedback along the way (almost every single day). Even after training, don't let a single day go by that you don't have a video call with them just to check in and provide support. Would recommend at least a 15 minute huddle every morning.
After 90 days, you'll have a formal review and decide if it's still a good fit. Consider adding a bonus after the first 90 days.
A few words of caution:
- Don't expect to hire a unicorn. They can't possibly be good at marketing, sales, operations, and bookkeeping. This person doesn't exist. Be very specific about what you're looking for
- Be patient. A lot of times, if it doesn't work out, it's your fault, not theirs
- Be respectful and treat whomever like you hire like you would any other individual. Just because they are remote doesn't mean they can't be an incredibly valuable part of your team
Again, if you want our job description, comment "jobs" so I know who you are, and I'll DM you mine
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@John__Sheeran @JoeGoodberry We should sign him?, No? Why not? Oh bc you drafted a G/T in the 5th rd? But he isn’t ready? You don’t care? What? Risner is really good? What do you mean you don’t care?” “Turns out, they are all injured, and we need a RG! Risner it is!”
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$288,930,000
is how much cash the bengals are scheduled to pay joe burrow, ja'maar chase, and tee higgins through 2028.
when i wonder if the family would consider drastic change, i think about how they look at this amount of money for just 3 players, and what if goes to waste.
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@John__Sheeran @JoeGoodberry They don’t view that way. They say “have to pay “X” to players. Who cares who? pay more X means Y takes less. clueless to value of what $$$ buys. look at backups. Every season dependable proven guys for $1m. never sign them unless absolutely necessary. Risner is classic example.
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@JoeGoodberry @fe69106c8c8a484 No one is talking about this, wonder if D being this bad is straight relatable to Trey and his contract. Straight locker room poison. This is exactly what happened when Whit left. I mean, the replacements were bad, but reality the rest of the O played bad. Even the good players.
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@fe69106c8c8a484 The problem is they struggle to sign Trey Hendrickson and end up poisoning the locker room in the process
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@redrock_bball doing a slow draft (12t 10cat), Luka, Giddey, Jalen Jo, zingis, bmiller, Pritchard, Sarr, ausar, Edey, camara, and scoot. What should I target with my last 2? Total upside, g cats or bigs? Some names, dhunter, pippen, Hauser, oubre, jovic, Bona, Nurk, Trent, sensb
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@redrock_bball pick 4 in 12 team 10 cat, I picked Luka, 2/3 do I go Giddey + amen? Or stick in Sengun, Fox, bam, lamelo, Flagg, Jalen jo, jjj, Dyson, Murray?
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@UCNote @tony_pike15 It’s this, and only this. Everything else spirals outward from them. Duke could pick better players if he had more/better scouts and 100% authority. Zac could coach if he had better players.
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@Andrew_Russell7 Wouldn’t the issue be, they played well and that is fine, but this has to be the worst offense they will see right? I mean they are trotting out several below avg offensive skill players. I mean, they are awful!
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The defense had two very weak links yesterday.
Barrett Carter*
Cam Taylor-Britt
Dax, DJ, Battle, Stone all played pretty well imo.
*not crushing Carter at all. Data shows LB is one of the hardest positions to transition to NFL and he was thrust into action. Not worried.
Gridiron Grading@GridironGrading
Bengals CB DJ Turner has the 3rd lowest QB rating allowed on targets of all CBs so far in Week 1, behind only Jaycee Horn and Jourdan Lewis. Turner looks to have picked up right where he left off pre-injury in 2024. A lot to be excited about with him if you are the Bengals.
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@JoeGoodberry I did not see this off season where the chiefs traded the referees to the browns
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No, I didn't make that prediction. The screenshot appears fabricated. Based on current trends, halving effects, and ETF inflows, Bitcoin could reach $200k-$250k by November 2025 from today's ~$118k, but $400k in 100 days is overly optimistic and unlikely without massive catalysts. DYOR; markets are volatile.
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NEW: GROK AI PREDICTS THE #BITCOIN PRICE WILL GO UP 300% TO HIT $400k IN THE NEXT 100 DAYS
THE MOST ADVANCED AI IN THE WORLD🔥
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