CKWeather

😂

@SkyPixWeather Nice post. Big cities have better observations and impact data than rural areas. There are differing philosophies on how to handle it.

Another entry in the, “Does the atmosphere care about CWA borders?” file. Strong reporting inconsistencies aren’t limited to just severe-storm reports. Here they involve extreme-heat events in Storm Data. In the report, NWS regions” means county warning areas, not the multi-state regions of NWS bureaucracy. Chart and text below from the Texas State Climatologist office. Report link in first comment. “The NWS offices responsible for central and southern Texas appear to provide county-specific extreme heat reports, with larger numbers in more populous counties. In north-central and eastern Texas, by comparison, rural counties tend to have roughly the same number of extreme heat events within a given NWS region, but there are clear discontinuities in the number of events across NWS regional boundaries. In west-central Texas, according to the extreme heat event counts, the area around Abilene and San Angelo is nearly immune to extreme heat events, a finding contrary to the experience of anyone who has visited Abilene or San Angelo in the summertime.”

The national debt is 40 trillion dollars. That’s a problem. But it’s theoretical and at a bulk level. On the scale of each spending item in the budget, no one wants to give up their favorite programs. Thus individual incentives favor ballooning debt. Same with Tornado Warnings.

@AriWeather @amarkowitzWX One office surveys 7 tornadoes from a QLCS 90 miles from the radar, most of which happened before the Tornado Warning was issued. Local officials complain to Congress, Congress says WTF? A dozen false alarms and this doesn’t happen. Thus the incentives.

I strongly disagree. The long term cumulative downside to high FAR is massive.. it's just common sense - "we get tornado warnings all the time, nothing ever happens." Not that it's a great mind set but with the FAR that high I don't blame them one bit. Of course, there's nuance.. obviously it''s not a perfect science. Nobody expects 0% FAR but I think we can do better than 75%. We've made advancements in communicating different threat levels (confirmed vs radar). We have more eyes on the storms.. but theres a lot of stuff still just plain behind the times. Like when sirens go off for an entire county when only a tiny corner of it is in the polygon I understand not wanting to miss one as a forecaster, but it's not about you.. it's about how seriously the general public takes serious threats in the long term. I don't think blanket-TOR-warning a QLCS with a few inflow notches just in case an EF-0 spins up for 3 minutes is good practice if you expect all the people in that polygon take shelter and take TORs seriously in the long term. I think forecasters need to ditch the fear of a "missed event" because it's the stronger tornadoes that kill the vast majority of people.. we can do better imo. I'm open minded to opposing opinions btw, all ears but this is what my experience has shown

Learned about this last month at the Mississippi State Severe Storms Symposium and was pretty shocked. Crazy that the false alarm rate for tornadoes is around 75% and has not improved much with technology! Curious how we fix this without sacrificing POD. Better safe than sorry?

@AriWeather @amarkowitzWX I agree. Although as you said that’s cumulative down side. On the scale of an individual storm that downside is minuscule compared to the downside of a miss. Miss a tornado and there’s reviews and maybe deaths. Issue a dozen warnings and it’s “wow, busy night last night.”

@amarkowitzWX The national debt is 40 trillion dollars. That’s a lot. That’s bad. But it’s theoretical and at a bulk level. On the scale of each spending item in the budget, no one wants to give up their favorite programs. Cutting one program gets bad headlines. Thus the incentives favor debt.

I’ll play Devil’s Advocate…at a certain point would a high False Alarm Rate be perceived as “Boy Who Cried Wolf” and lead to warning fatigue? If someone uprooted their lives for repeated warnings that did not verify, could they be less inclined to prepare next time?

@amarkowitzWX I didn’t say I like it. I said that’s how the incentives are, and stats show it. The downside of false alarm is theoretical and at a bulk statistical level. On a single storm level, it’s far outweighed by the downside of a potential miss.

@amarkowitzWX Noticed your stats stop around 2015. Seems a bit old, no? Why is that?

@BorisJohnson That’s quite the one liner to hide behind a paywall

Falling birth rates aren’t a disaster, they’re the best bit of global news in a long time mol.im/a/15782963

Dems complaining about gas prices is so disingenuous. This is the party that wants gas prices so high it forces you into public transit. They religiously hate oil and raise gas taxes. Blue state prices are very high for this reason.

@MatthewCappucci @WxScholl That’s terrible. 🤦🏼‍♂️

@CkWeather @WxScholl Nah. This particular WFO only issues considerable.

I didn’t want to keep sleeping it’s fine

@MatthewCappucci @WxScholl Base Flash flood warnings do not WEA. Only those with the “considerable” tag do. I’d hope they had more than 2 inches for a considerable FFW?

@WxScholl I have gotten several this morning. It has rained like 2 inches. I can see why people disable WEA. If an intersection is flooding from 2” overnight… build better drainage 🤷

@AP Hollowed out? That’s not what they did. They ruled their districts unconstitutionally segregated by race. Be better

BREAKING: Louisiana postpones its House primaries after the U.S. Supreme Court hollowed out the Voting Rights Act. apnews.com/article/congre…

I am introducing a Constitutional Amendment to end Birthright Citizenship. Under current interpretations of American law, anyone born on American soil automatically becomes a U.S. citizen, regardless of whether the parent was here legally or not.  This is wrong and not at all the intent of those who wrote the 14th Amendment.  We are a country filled with immigrants, and legal immigration is valuable and should be protected. But we are also a country whose borders have been too open and our generosity exploited too often. President Trump has moved to seal our border from illegal immigrants more than any other president.   But we will have more to do. We need to make sure that only children born to legal residents of the U.S. are automatically citizens. I have supported protecting birthright citizenship from abuse since the beginning of my tenure in the Senate, when I cosponsored the Birthright Citizenship Act of 2011, and now I am proposing an amendment to protect United States citizenship in case the Supreme Court fails to address this issue correctly.

@OnimaruEsports @TheViperAOE @tatohaoe @FreakinAndy @dogaoAoE @JorDan_AoE @DauTAoE Will it be in English?

🚨 THE WAIT IS OVER! TICKETS ARE NOW ON SALE! 🚨 The moment the community has been waiting for is finally here! Ticket sales for the Brazilian Dynasty are officially open. Get ready to watch the biggest legends of Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition up close in an unforgettable LAN event on Brazilian soil! 🇧🇷 Check out the details of our Tournament: 📅 Dates: July 1st to 5th (Watch Party on July 3rd, and games in front of an audience on July 4th and 5th.) 📍 Location: São Paulo - Brazil (Live Event / LAN) Don't miss the chance to be part of our dynasty and live this unique experience together with the community. See you in São Paulo! Wololo!

When a tornado hits in 2027…👀

@themaxburns How’s this racial? Political? Yes. Just like VA or MA or IL. Racial? Not at all. At no point does she propose anything racial. Race isn’t a consideration here. Politics is.

It took Marsha Blackburn less than an hour to propose a racial gerrymander that explains exactly why we needed the Voting Rights Act in the first place.

As usual, Justice Thomas is absolutely correct. From his concurrence (citations omitted): <>

One of the least appreciated changes of the last decade is the election of Black members, both Democrats and Republicans, in plurality white districts. There are 58 Black House members, a record. A majority are elected from plurality white districts.