Simon Gordon
183 posts
Trump really is America's Mr Brexit
Gandalv@Microinteracti1
Donald Trump's net approval rating has collapsed to a historic negative 17 points. He is the most unpopular president in US history.
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In the US, such an approach is called "isolationist".
Keir Starmer@Keir_Starmer
I will always make decisions that are in the national interest. It’s why we aren’t getting dragged into the Middle East conflict, and why we are fighting to protect your living standards. And while opposition parties have responded by dividing communities, we respond with hope and pride. Pride in our communities, and the hope of a country that’s better for our children. That’s what we’re fighting for. Vote Labour on Thursday 7 May.
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No matter how this war ends, the level of Arab Gulf mistrust/public anger at Iran regime is a new reality for Tehran to reckon with. Arabic social media tells a very different story than English posts. There is no going back to pre-Feb. 28.
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Inching closer to a finale - either a nice peace deal or bomb and bounce. Either way this looks more and more like the prelude to Mission Accomplished.
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SECRETARY RUBIO: We always prefer to settle things through diplomacy. But we also have to be prepared for the fact that effort might fail. We are dealing with a 47-year-old regime that still has a lot of people involved in it who aren't necessarily big fans of diplomacy or peace.
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Trump with another threat against Iran's critical civilian infrastructure, as well as Kharg Island, if a deal is not reached soon.
Once again, he affirms there has been "regime change" in Iran despite all evidence to the contrary.
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I suppose that today wasn't an oil jawboning day.
Instead, US President Trump just threatened Tehran with blowing up not just all its power stations, but also its oil wells, Kharg Island, and "possibly" all desalination water plants (Note: the later would be a war crime)
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@ErikSTownsend Are the American public ready to see their soldiers in FPV drone snuff movies?
youtube.com/watch?v=-9HREZ…
YouTube
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I was so harshly ridiculed for suggesting American boots-on-ground was coming about 2 hours after Trump's first announcement on Feb. 28th that I wound up partially walking back that prediction in one of the replies.
Next time I'll just trust my instincts.
Erik Townsend 🛢️@ErikSTownsend
There is no scenario where you pre-announce the possibility of American casualties to the American people unless you intend prolonged Boots-on-Ground operations. This is not an airstrike. It's the start of an air->ground war. ☹️
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Insane these 4 hour airport wait times may still happen. The economy depends on travel.
Strip out a TSA funding bill and fight over the rest later.
Congress needs to remember it works FOR us.
Or in this case, doesn’t work.
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PRINCE: We live in a world of transparent battlefields. Within 30–40 km, drones and surveillance put you at risk.
You can’t hide an amphibious group. Once in range, it’s highly targeted. No surprise left.
Without maritime superiority, against Iran’s missiles, drones, and swarm attacks, it’s highly dangerous.
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French TV tonight -
"C'est une honte nationale": dépassée par la France, suppléée par l'Allemagne, qualifiée de "jouet" par Trump... Le déclin de la marine britannique embarrasse les Anglais
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Ground operations, as described by @DanLamothe, suffer from a serious what then problem.
The purpose of a possible invasion is to reopen the Strait. If ground forces are successful in that, what then? (1/n)
Dan Lamothe@DanLamothe
SCOOP: The Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran, U.S. officials said, as thousands of American soldiers and Marines arrive in the Middle East for what could become a dangerous new phase of the war should President Donald Trump choose to escalate.
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Putting aside the question of whether the U.S. should have joined Israel in attacking Iran, one of the hardest parts of watching setbacks with how the war is unfolding is that the entire US NatSec community has wargamed this scenario for decades. We knew the risks & enemy COAs.
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@philippilk They're guys with guns... and helicopters... and total air supremacy wherever they chose to fight, unlike either Russia or Ukraine. The IRGC won't be able to maneuver to within FPV or arty range of them.
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It seems like the White House think American special forces are some sort of magic military weapon. This is likely due to the Venezuela experience. In reality they are just guys with guns. We’ve seen what happens to these guys in a warzone in Ukraine. 🇺🇸🇮🇷
OSINTdefender@sentdefender
The Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran, U.S. officials tell the Washington Post, as thousands of American soldiers and Marines arrive in the Middle East for what could become a dangerous new phase of the Iran War, exposing U.S. personnel to an array of threats, including Iranian drones and missiles, ground fire and improvised explosive, should the decision to escalate by made by President Donald J. Trump. Any potential ground operation would fall short of a full-scale invasion and could instead involve raids by a mixture of Special Operations forces and conventional infantry troops, said the officials. Options include the possible seizure of Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub in the Persian Gulf, and raids into other coastal areas near the Strait of Hormuz to find and destroy weapons that can target commercial and military shipping, with one official setting the potential timeline at “a couple of months.”
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The Pentagon is preparing for a limited ground operation against Iran that could last weeks or a couple of months, reports The Washington Post.
Not a full invasion, but raids by special operations forces and regular infantry.
Plans include seizing Kharg Island and hitting coastal sites near the Strait of Hormuz to destroy anti-ship weapons.
Taking territory could damage the regime and create leverage in negotiations. Protecting the troops who are holding it is the harder, more risky problem.
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This is quite interesting, thorough, and sensible. Ignore the know-nothing defeatists and isolationist howlers and sloganeers on the internet. Check this out instead. John Spencer is actually smart and qualified. He knows a lot. Well worth reading.
John Spencer@SpencerGuard
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Time to call it: I missed it.
Ford being damaged and having to pull out of the AOR has significantly reduced US strike capacity. Nevertheless, we appear to have achieved the initial military objectives as had been announced by Adm Cooper of destroying the missile production facilities and sinking the Navy. We are now targeting the rest of the Iranian defense industrial base which they believe will be completed soon. Then there will be a decision to make about what to do about the 60% HEU and Hormuz. No one easy military solutions are apparent to either
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At the risk of jeopardizing my thus-far successful track record of predicting war commencements (regretfully, I am three for three so far), I will venture into much harder territory: predicting war terminations.
This war likely ends within two weeks, perhaps as soon as next week
Dmitri Alperovitch@DAlperovitch
I think the window for strikes against Iran opens tonight, with a very high probability of them taking place this week
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