Clive

1.9K posts

Clive

Clive

@ClivePonsonby

Former Currency trader, now a full time mathematician and father of two wonderful children.

Somewhere, UK Katılım Ocak 2009
236 Takip Edilen84 Takipçiler
Clive
Clive@ClivePonsonby·
@v_j_freeman It’s been debunked by people who were at Citi at the time many times. I could look around our (rates and FX) trading floor at another big US bank in London at he wouldn’t even be in the top 20 for any years around that period. Not even top 100 if you go IB wide across all regions
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Victoria Freeman
Victoria Freeman@v_j_freeman·
Every time I think about Gary Stephenson’s claim to have run Citibank’s most profitable book *globally* in 2011 at a mere $35m I goggle. They would had to have been doing very badly indeed for that to have been their most profitable book but they weren’t. It’s simply improbable.
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Clive
Clive@ClivePonsonby·
@darioperkins @MrMBrown I think we play out same way, valuations got very high very fast, arguably not reflecting high energy prices at all. We prob grudgingly justify those values at some point but trade sideways for the summer with ups and downs +/-5% from here. Earnings this week maybe change that?
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Clive
Clive@ClivePonsonby·
@darioperkins @MrMBrown This time around, drawdown was less but happening faster, partly because everyone remembers lib-day price action and using that as a playbook. 26.15k to 22.85k (-3.3k) on Iran news, took just over two weeks to regain level, then another 2 weeks to go to 27.3k =+1.15k (50% more).
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Dario Perkins
Dario Perkins@darioperkins·
The @johnauthers piece was good today. He asks whether surviving the Iran crisis would be like 1998 LTCM/Russia default, a market scare that triggers a subsequent two-year meltup in US tech stock. I guess there are two problems: 1. The Iran crisis remains unresolved, and increasingly intractable 2. This administration just moves from one crisis to the next. Are we really going to last two years without another act of policy f***wittery? Seems unlikely
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Clive
Clive@ClivePonsonby·
@zugzwangE4 @TheMichaelEvery First who says China are paying a toll, second it’s not against current int’l or maritime laws, but stopping a ship from passing through international waters *is*. Actually stopping a ship, the navy of its flag is bound to come help, and if that’s China and they send their navy🤷‍♂️
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Michael Every
Michael Every@TheMichaelEvery·
Is this to pressure NATO —and China— to pressure Iran to reopen Hormuz: **massive** escalation to deescalate? Regardless, it seems nothing will now flow through the Strait from Iran for anyone until everything does for everyone.
Michael Every tweet media
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Clive
Clive@ClivePonsonby·
@PauloMacro “Hardly generated a ripple in […] bond markets” 🤣🤣🤣 Slightly lost for words.
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Paulo Macro
Paulo Macro@PauloMacro·
It’s cool guys, the investment bank at ground zero of private credit ponzis says nothing ever happens - just chill
Paulo Macro tweet media
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Clive
Clive@ClivePonsonby·
@Frencheconomics An averaged pension lock (call it triple-lock-plus!!) Something like taking the three strands of triple lock over a rolling 3 or 5yr look back period, rather than 1yr, avoids situation where one year of high CPI skews things so much. This would still be fair, but much cheaper.
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Simon French
Simon French@Frencheconomics·
If government want to Hail Mary the "Gilts always miss the bid" story then announce a blanket IHT exemption on Gilts, and double lock/average lock state pension. Watch funding costs crater, and near term headroom improve.
Julian Jessop@julianHjessop

Another big jump in gilt yields at the open, especially at the short end, as speculation grows that the Bank of England might actually *raise* interest rates... FWIW, I believe the MPC will still be willing to look through the temporary impact of commodity price shocks on inflation, especially as these are also likely to dampen economic activity. But rate *cuts* are surely on hold.

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Clive
Clive@ClivePonsonby·
@donnelly_brent West coast is where all the best bits are IMHO, Kerry, Galway, Donegal, just drive up the coast and stop in local places. A couple of days in Dublin and Giants Causeway in the north should be on the list, Belfast as well, just stick to the bits next to the sea and you'll be fine
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ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq
ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq@donnelly_brent·
I'm doing a family trip to Ireland in June 2026. Any recommendations? Wife + two kids 17 and 21. Also I want to see a football match while there (Dublin?) any recommendations there? thanks !
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Clive
Clive@ClivePonsonby·
@AndreasSteno It only has value if the company is prepared to sell the BTC and buy back shares, which under Saylor it’s not gonna do. Also you’d have to hedge by shorting BTC which has costs. Above 0.8 it’s not a value play it’s more of a BTC play, but if that’s your thesis, just buy BTC 🤷‍♂️
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Andreas Steno Larsen
Andreas Steno Larsen@AndreasSteno·
How big of a discount to mNAV would you need to buy MicroStrategy here as a value play? Serious question I get why the sentiment around Saylor is negative, but there is an underlying book value here.
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Clive
Clive@ClivePonsonby·
@kristoberg @DanNeidle Widening the VAT base without cutting the rate can be quite inflationary, cutting the rate at the same time as widening the base neutralises most of this effect. If inflation was at 2% you may take the chance but with a 3.8% headline rate you need to be more cautious.
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Kristoffer Berg
Kristoffer Berg@kristoberg·
@DanNeidle I don’t see a clear economic argument for spending some of the revenue on cutting the future VAT rate. Better to cut CIT or income tax if growth is the objective. But if the reason is to make other VAT changes politically feasible, I can see the argument.
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Clive
Clive@ClivePonsonby·
@markoinny Given that a lot of the moves in financial markets nowadays are driven by (essentially) people gambling on big upside, the crypto story is old hat and price action is struggling, and AI is where it’s at. Dip buyers in NVDA will outnumber those in BTC 10:1.
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Clive
Clive@ClivePonsonby·
@markoinny The crypto narrative was that wider adoption and benign US govt sends it higher. And we went from ~70k to ~125k since the election. But from here if you are looking for growth and the next big thing it’s AI and $NVDA. So all the hype chasers have moved on from crypto >> AI.
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Marko Kolanovic
Marko Kolanovic@markoinny·
Despite the selloff NDX momentum still positive. For crypto, on the other hand momentum is strongly negative. Hello CTAs meet the zero value anchor asset...
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Dario Perkins
Dario Perkins@darioperkins·
The UK - booms by becoming Europe's global financial centre. Until the GFC. Then decides it doesn't like finance. Or Europe. And the rest of the country decides it doesn't like London. So what's the "strategy" now? Argue about flags and immigrants?
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Clive
Clive@ClivePonsonby·
@MrMBrown I loaded up when the US and Europe started seizing Russian assets in 2022 thinking various CBs would want to decrease amount held in USTs (gold obvious alt) and again in 2024 when we properly broke the LT top. The macro reasons are still in play but time to take some profit.
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Michael Brown
Michael Brown@MrMBrown·
Price of gold was being discussed on ‘This Morning’ yesterday - might be the ultimate top signal 😂
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Clive
Clive@ClivePonsonby·
@ChrisGiles_ Food inflation (component of the overall UK CPI index) is +36.8% in the four years from August 2021-2025, which is an annualised rate of over 8% and still rising over 5% in the last year so it’s not like it’s going down or even under control.
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Clive
Clive@ClivePonsonby·
@ChrisGiles_ And for the 50% of the population that are struggling with the cost of living, 80-90% of their post tax spending goes on food/energy/rent, three sectors that have all seen way above headline inflation for several years now (since 2022).
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Chris Giles
Chris Giles@ChrisGiles_·
Food prices have risen a lot more than other stuff since Covid... My newsletter asks whether they are now a leading indicator of inflation ft.com/content/de31dc…
Chris Giles tweet media
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Clive
Clive@ClivePonsonby·
@investingLive_ Most of that is the price rise, the actual holdings by Troy Oz went from 74.02m to 74.06m which is 40k Oz or $150-160mn worth or 0.05%. The interbank amount for gold is 5k or 10k Oz in one quote, so when I was trading gold we’d buy this amount in one call out taking ~2 minutes.
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Clive
Clive@ClivePonsonby·
@MrMBrown You can put your hands up and say I don’t know WHY it’s trading that way, and then you either stop trading it until it makes sense, or you show some humility and try and learn - listen to other people who do seem to have a handle on it.
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Clive
Clive@ClivePonsonby·
@MrMBrown Difference between a trader and a strategist. If a trader makes a wrong call they learn from it (well they do if they want to stay in a job!), they don’t keep trying the same thing and lose again and again and again.
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Keşfet

@v_j_freeman @darioperkins @MrMBrown @johnauthers @zugzwangE4 @TheMichaelEvery @PauloMacro @Frencheconomics