Clemente Lacerda

The goal is to redefine the standard.

Japanese actor Hiroyuki Sanada spoke about the contradictions of human nature: “Some people dream of having a swimming pool at home, while those who have one hardly ever use it. Those who have lost a loved one feel a profound sense of loss, while others often complain about their living relatives. Those without a partner long for one, while those who have one often don't appreciate it. The hungry would give anything for a meal, while the satiated complain about the taste of their food. Those without a car dream of owning one, while those who have a car are always looking for a better one.” The key to happiness is gratitude: truly seeing and appreciating what we already have, and understanding that somewhere, someone would give anything for what we take for granted.

@chamath @mjmauboussin I think you are directionally right that AI should make investors re-examine moat duration and terminal value assumptions. The better takeaway might be that CAP dispersion widens, fake moats get exposed faster, while real moats may persist or even deepen.

@mjmauboussin paper on CAP is a useful resource here, where he argues a company's value is cash flow, risk, and how long excess returns last. The thought exercise if useful, but for it to be fair you should also include why might the conclusion not come true. A few reasons: 1. Newspapers lost a local distribution monopoly and got their classifieds unbundled. 2. Retail was hit hardest where the product was undifferentiated and the customer cared mostly about price and convenience. 3. Taxi medallions were a regulatory scarcity asset. Those are not clean analogs for large software platforms or the top of the S&P, where the moat is often distribution, installed base, workflow integration, trust, compliance, capital, and talent. Additionally, AI can strengthen moats too. Feature moats may get weaker, but ecosystem moats can get stronger. If AI raises the value of compute scale, proprietary data, enterprise relationships, bundling, and balance sheet strength, incumbents may get more dominant, not less. Big firms are often better positioned to absorb a new platform shift than smaller firms are to overthrow them. Last point here is that the sentiment on X does not reflect the real economy. As you well know, adoption is slower than discourse. Procurement cycles, switching costs, regulation, retraining, liability, and integration work all create drag. Markets can reprice before earnings collapse, but actual disruption usually arrives much more unevenly than tech people assume. Thank you for the essay. It's always good to think through the scenarios and weigh the outcomes.

@BobCasey excellent piece

He literally explained why practicing art grows your soul, not your status.

game winners > youtube.com/watch?v=_5zGi-…

I have been intentionally trying to break though the zeitgeist trap, the narratives that fog judgement, and search for information that was created with the intention to generate change and value, not spread like a meme. I'm sharing a couple of great recent reads that I believe will help anyone see the world differently - no specific order to them: @DKThomp derekthompson.org/p/nobody-knows… @erikphoel theintrinsicperspective.com/p/bits-in-bits… @krishnanrohit substack.com/home/post/p-14… @phokarlsson substack.com/home/post/p-13… THE CREATIVE PROCESS By James Baldwin from Creative America, Ridge Press, 1962. openspaceofdemocracy.wordpress.com/wp-content/upl… @milesgrimshaw The Playbook to Evolving Your Product Genetics | 2022 Talk at SaaStr (recommend reading the transcript then watching the video, there's also a recent good podcast where he talks about the biology vs physics lens) aletteraday.substack.com/p/letter-49-mi… "Peace without Conquest": Lyndon Johnson's Speech of April 7, 1965 presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/addr… @jaltma and @btaylor uncappedpod.com/p/bret-taylor-… George Soros (2013) Fallibility, reflexivity, and the human uncertainty principle, Journal of Economic Methodology, 20:4, 309-329, DOI: 10.1080/1350178X.2013.859415 #d1e80" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… COMPLEXITY, THE SANTA FE APPROACH, AND NON-EQUILIBRIUM ECONOMICS W. Brian Arthur jstor.org/stable/2372351…

i miss kobe man

Couldn't agree more. I would add that for a specific topic you want to dive into, you can ask it to design a 'x' module course for you to learn about said topic, and for it to engage in open dialogue and thoughtful questioning to help you to think deeper. It has worked for me. The more you push, the more the AI gives. I also found if very helpful to use claude + chatgpt. Sometimes one is too forgiving, and you must use the other to review an output and criticize the direction the discussion is going so that you can gain a different perspective.

No more 'reading' to get smart on business things... conversations.

Thoughts on why current hiring platforms and tools are creating a broken market. I don't have an answer to this problem, just thoughts and questions. Would love comments and feedbacks lacerda.cl/writings/legib…

This passage from 'Richer, Wiser, Happier: How the World's Greatest Investors Win in Markets and Life': [As Munger looks back on his financial adventures, it becomes clear that what he cherishes most is not the scale of his victory, but the manner in which he won it. For Munger, the goal has never been to win at all costs. "Money was very important to him", says his daughter Molly. "But to win it by cheating or win it and lose the battle for life, that was never what he was about." Munger embodies an enlightened form of capitalism that is infused with old-fashioned values. "My theory of life is win-win." Money matters. But it's not the essential ingredient of an abundant life. Life is more than being shrewd in wealth accumulation.]

Most people don’t know, but I developed a stutter in middle school. Not terrible. But noticeable enough that people noticed, and noticeable enough that I noticed them noticing. I never really “cured” it. But what I did do is learn which sounds would trip me up and got good at swapping them out mid-sentence, in real time, without anyone knowing. It also gave me something unexpected: a read on people. I could tell fast who judged me, who didn’t notice, and who underestimated me. So when I see KC Concepcion step up to a mic at the NFL Combine, knowing exactly how much courage that moment takes — all I feel is respect.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ I believe the people who’ve had to fight for something most others take for granted have already proven they can absorb difficulty and keep going. Even if it’s as basic as getting a sentence out.

Two quotes I keep going back to: “Language was always the companion of empire, and as such, together they begin, grow, and flourish. And later, together, they fall.” "The most powerful person in the world is the storyteller"

"Reality feeds the participants so much information that they need to introduce dichotomies and other simplifying devices to make sense of it. The simplest way to introduce order is binary division: hence, the tendency to use dichotomies." - G. S.

One of my favorite investing videos out there! Seth Klarman rarely does interviews, fortunately, he did this one. It's only ten minutes. Watch it before you go to bed tonight. It's worth it:

@btaylor @jaltma First ~13 minutes might be one of the clearest per-minute overviews of what is happening in tech and AI right now. I really appreciated how you and @btaylor kept it curious, grounded, honest about the unknowns and willing to sit with the hard questions instead of forcing a take.

Had a great conversation with @jaltma about SaaSpocalypse (SaaSmageddon?), Sierra, and the future of software