FrozenLight

🧵1/3 *** 39% of all bets on BC's leadership race look automated *** What is Polymarket? It's a website where people bet real money on political outcomes. The more money backing someone, the higher their odds - like a stock market for predictions. What does this data show? Every bet placed on the BC Conservative leadership race over the last 26 days. About 95 accounts, roughly $45,000 in total bets. The bottom line in three points: 1. Caroline Elliott is the heavy favourite at 66%. She started as a longshot at 28% four weeks ago and the money has piled in steadily since. 2. Kerry-Lynne Findlay is the only real competition at 20%. 3. Everyone else - Milobar, Black, Fulmer and the rest - have essentially been written off, trading below 2%. The most interesting thing that happened: yesterday someone put $1,500 on Elliott at 95% certainty - the most confident single bet in the entire dataset. By morning the odds had dropped back to 66%. Something changed overnight and the market repriced before any public news broke. About 11 of the 95 accounts appear to be automated bots running the same playbook - placing small bets that every losing candidate won't win, collecting near-guaranteed payouts as longshots fade toward zero. It's legal and profitable, but the coordination between those accounts is striking. The caveat: This is a small, niche market. A single $1,500 bet genuinely moves the needle. It reflects the sentiment of roughly 95 internet bettors, not a scientific poll. Take it as a signal worth watching, not a verdict.