Colton 🦋 お嬢様 💫

🤍🤍🤍

Tomorrow's quad witch is a mechanical powder keg and I don't think it resolves cleanly. $SPY closed at $661.69. The gamma flip level is $661. That's not a coincidence, that's a pin. $QQQ sitting right on its flip too at $595. Both indexes in negative gamma where dealer hedging amplifies whatever direction breaks first. Buyback blackout is active. The single biggest buyer of equities is legally sidelined. Powell speaks Saturday. Which means anyone holding through Friday close is eating unhedgeable weekend risk. I think $SPY slips into the 655-660 range tomorrow. A break below 660 triggers dealer selling cascades with no buyback bid to catch it. Above 662, it just grinds and pins. The narrow range feels calm. It isn't. What side of the flip are you positioned for?

🇮🇷 Iran just brought a new missile into the spotlight, the Fattah-2. This isn’t your usual missile. It launches with a solid-fuel booster, shoots up crazy fast, reportedly past Mach 15, all the way to the edge of the atmosphere. Then it flips the script. The booster drops off, and a hypersonic glide vehicle takes over, carrying the warhead back down. And this is where it gets tricky… it doesn’t just fall straight. It glides, adjusts mid-air, flies around 12–30 km high, then drops lower and starts making sharp, last-second turns. Speed? Anywhere from Mach 5 to Mach 20, that’s up to ~17,900 km/h (around 10,000 mph). At that speed, systems like Iron Dome, Arrow, and David’s Sling barely get time to react. So it’s not just fast, it’s moving all over the place, too. That combo makes it really hard to stop. If this actually works as they say… this is the kind of thing that starts messing with how current air defenses are built. Source: AiTelly YT

Bombs it's neighbours energy infrastructure Gets sanctions relief 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

I talked to two Israeli sources on why Iranian launches continue to increase, despite US-Israeli claims that they have destroyed almost all of the launchers. Here is what they said: 1) The 90–95% drop in volume claimed by CENTCOM earlier in the month was probably a temporary lull as Iran repositioned its remaining launchers into hardened sites. Independent satellite analysis suggests that a significant portion of the "80% destruction" claimed by the IDF actually hit high-fidelity decoys. 2) Despite fewer launchers, the lethality per strike has increased. Iran's shift to cluster warheads has allowed a single missile to impact multiple locations simultaneously, compensating for the lower volume of launches 3) Iran has successfully set up mobile, underground units able to fire at steady rates. Iran used that quiet period to move their remaining ~100-120 heavy launchers into "Super-Hardened" facilities 4) Iran is utilizing its Zolfaqar and Dezful road-mobile launchers. These units move from hardened tunnels to pre-surveyed launch spots, fire, and return underground in under 10 minutes, often before coalition drones can re-task for a strike. 5) Because these launching units are decentralized, it is very hard for US and Israeli intelligence to get info on them. Israel and the United States do not have an answer to this problem. That is why they are trying escalation on energy sources instead. But that is backfiring.

@0xJokerFrog Milady

War timeline cleanse 🫰 Milady

Open sources indicate a massive increase in Iranian launches since March 16th. That day firings went up 63.2% and one the 17th increased by 19.4%. Today it is on pace to increase again. The type of missiles is also different. Approximately 50% of Iranian ballistic missiles fired recently have contained cluster warheads, which can saturate radar and force air defense systems (like Patriot or Iron Dome) to fire multiple interceptors per target. This shows what we have long suspected. The IDF and CENTCOM are lying about the rates of destruction of launchers and Iranian missiles. Indeed, the UAE Ministry of Defence noted on March 17 that there has been "no apparent reduction in launches" since the early days of the war.

the laundry room on the F-35 caught fire

@MalloryUltra @BitcoinForCorps Bröther were already down 50% hahahah how much more is it going to sell off

@BitcoinForCorps @ColtonButterfly this is a sell the news event

🚨 JUST IN: The Fed pivots on Basel III, proposing a 4.8% cut to bank capital requirements, overhauling "toxic" risk weights for digital assets. This is a green light for Tier 1 banks to finally scale #Bitcoin custody.

@merry123459 Bahahahahahahah holy fuck you're retarded I'm guessing you're over 50?

You also don’t walk out of college or university expecting to buy a new 4 bedroom house, two cars, boats, skidoos, etc. The reason you struggle is because you aren’t willing to wait and make do like we did. Your entitlement is causing you to struggle.

Oh my god! 😂 There's no crime gene, but there is a "propensity to shoot and stab someone gene". It's the 2-repeat allele of the MAOA gene. African-Americans are 50 times more likely to carry this gene. Ahahahaaaaaaaaaahaha "Analyses revealed that African-American males who carry the 2-repeat allele are significantly more likely than all other genotypes to engage in shooting and stabbing behaviors and to report having multiple shooting and stabbing victims."

Let the nationalisation begin

🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️BREAKING: Iran releases footage of a direct hit on a US F-35 fighter jet by air defense forces. This is the first ever hit on the 5th generation fighter jet.

*IRANIAN MISSILE HAS HIT THE BAZAN OIL REFINERY IN HAIFA: AXIOS

Cash Dubai crude (balance of the month) just broke above $170 per barrel. To my knowledge, no crude has ever commanded more than $170/bbl before.

An African YouTube channel conducted an independent IQ test in Lagos, Nigeria. The average was 73.4, and the median was 69.7.

The US blinked in a major way here. We're signaling to Iran that we're dependent on their oil exports. This incentivizes them to exercise more control over the strait, the exact opposite effect you'd want if you were a US planner.

Housing market just disintegrated. All this will end with so much brrrrr

@LukeGromen Bessent continuing to panic

Signpost 👇

Equity bears are at the brink of insanity given resilience in the indices, but odds of a breakdown are increasing now. Equities top slowly as passive flows and rotational dynamics can hold up indices for a long time. There are many structural forces rigged to push them higher, and thus it takes a lot to make them go down. Over the course of an equity bull market, buy-the-dip behavior continually gets reinforced, and the majority of capital will be controlled by adherents to this mantra. In theory, the longer prices remain coiled, the larger the move once they exit the range. This nuke in gold suggests there are liquidity issues brewing under the surface. It feels like a preview of what is going to happen to crowded trades. My theory is the Middle East is selling gold to shore up capital, as they have lost their revenue, and have many expenses around defence. They will also need to rebuild lost energy infra, and eventually, new pipelines to reroute around Hormuz. The buyback window is starting to close, and the sugar rush of higher-than-usual tax refunds is starting to fade. Retail has been a key marginal buyer of equities in these past weeks, and the fading of the tax refund tailwind is critical. The market is gradually coming to terms with the fact that this conflict may last for a long time. On a conventional level, the US and Israel have completely dominated Iran, but Iran has an asymmetric edge when it comes to controlling world oil prices through Hormuz. Trump can still end it, but the issue is that the US cannot simply leave, a ceasefire with Iran must be struck in order to guarantee that Hormuz is reopened. In order to strike a ceasefire, Iran wants to see a guarantee that the US and Israel won't attack them again (at a bare minimum), and it will be difficult for the US to get Israel to agree to that. Trump is used to being able to quickly maneuver according to his whims, as he did with tariffs, but the complex interlocking physical realities of war are different. Oil shocks often contribute to the end of bull markets, since they constrain consumer spending, hit manufacturing, and lower the ability of central banks to offer support. Indeed, the Fed came out slightly hawkish yesterday, and Powell also hinted that he may stay in his Governor seat post his role as Chair ending, which would constrain Trump's plans to unleash liquidity. We have a stronger dollar and long duration bond yields are going up over the world, which tightens liquidity. The Middle East is tight on money now and they were the marginal bidder in many assets. In particular, they were a key funder for AI capex through their investments in the frontier labs. They've been 40-50% of recent big rounds. Remember other deep pockets like Softbank are close to being tapped out. Any dollar that goes into these rounds will have to come out of something else, like liquid stocks (look at my pinned post for this broader thesis). And if we have any signs of risk to AI capex expectations, this will be a major shift that the market needs to contemplate. I've said this before, but puts are a difficult way to express bearish equity views because timing is so uncertain. Equities can hold on for a long time, because they are structurally rigged to go higher. Easier expressions are simply being in cash, or gradually shorting cash stocks over time, which helps avoid getting chopped. This is a very difficult market, stay safe out there.