Namakan
77K posts




"Man won't fly for a million years" – NYT 1903


When this is over, the western part of NATO will never be the same. Spain, England, France and Italy have sold us out, as they too often have a history of doing. Eastern European nations are the heart of NATO. They spend money on defense, know how to fight and love the US. France particularly deserves fault and blame. From supporting China and Russia at the UN to denying Americans overflight rights, they’re doing what they’ve always done - showing weakness, while cutting deals with terrorists. (The reason the US has a Marine Corps and Navy is unlike France, we refused to pay a ransom to the Barbary Pirates. France is always happy to cut a deal.) Wars have unintended consequences as nations show their true colors. NATO will never be the same, and Western European weakness and acquiescence is the cause.






Lose all this to rescue 1 pilot and call it your greatest military success of all time.







One of the low-key and sort of subtle geopolitical dynamics of the last four years is that the Biden admin implemented Obama's Iran nuclear deal. People debate foreign policy as if we live in a post-JCPOA world or a non-JCPOA world. We do not. We live in a world in which the JCPOA was implemented. The Iran deal required the US to make fundamental concessions to Iran: 1. The termination of UN sanctions. Obama implemented this part through UN Security Council Resolution 2334. The Trump admin reversed that resolution by triggering a snapback mechanism built into the text. The Biden admin rushed to the UN in February 2021, undid that decision, and restored this part of the nuclear deal. 2. The whitewashing and legitimation of Iran's nuclear work. Obama implemented this part of the deal by issuing sanctions waivers to allow third countries to build up Iran's nuclear program. A core conceit of the deal, which Kerry and Zarif repeated over and over, was that Iran's nuclear work had always been peaceful (and that tensions between America and Iran over nuclear work were a misunderstanding). The conceit was the basis for everything related to the nuclear part of the deal: kneecapping the IAEA on past nuclear weapons work, keeping Fordow open as a research facility, the centrifuge development timeline, allowing reprocessing (!), and - critically - having third parties help Iran on nuclear issues. The idea went 'Since we've already agreed Iran's program is peaceful, and so they're allowed to keep it, don't you agree the international community should help them keep it safe and secure?' But Congress never accepted that theory, and there is a range of sanctions in law against helping Iran develop its nuclear program. So Obama issued waivers to suspend implementation of those sanctions. Trump canceled those waivers and reimposed the sanctions. The Biden admin started issuing the waivers again in February 2022. 3. Allowing Iran to sell oil. Obama implemented this part of the deal by issuing waivers to override Congressional sanctions. Trump canceled those waivers and reimposed those sanctions as part of maximum pressure, which cratered Iran's energy exports. Biden never formally reversed that decision - he just stopped enforcing sanctions, as if he had formally done it. Iran has, for several years, been exporting at the same levels as during the deal ⤵️






