@Speranskylives @andreas_krieg Sure they are. Definitely aren't all stored underground where they are almost impossible to hit. Go sail your slow ass amphibious assault ship right up into the strait. What could possibly go wrong?
English
Corbulo
456 posts
@Corbulo7 @andreas_krieg Anti-shipping missile launching platforms all along the coast are being taken out since last night. Mobile ones are being hunted around the clock. Drones will be the most difficult to stop, perhaps impossible to stop completely.
English
Key question: what does 'not leaving Iran in control of Hormuz' practically mean?
Centuries of Royal Navy ops in this area prove the centre of gravity for any form of piracy, or maritime asymmetric warfare is on land
Seizing a few island alone won't do the job - you would have to seize the northern shores of the Strait AND hold it along a considerable stretch of coastline, with sufficient depth into the hinterland to deny the aerial threats
This is rugged terrain, includes a major city Bandar Abbas with 700,000 inhabitants, a highly mobilized civil defence architecture that will immediately kicks into insurgency
Even if you could get two brigades of 30,000 boots mobilized with the necessary naval and air support, even if you were able to seize the coastline, a deployment wouldn't be sustainable
PLUS, as long as the IRGC has access to the sea, it can release skiffs, smaller platforms and most importantly USVs to disrupt freedom of navigation in the Gulf
David B Roberts@thegulfblog
So much obfuscating metaphor going on here. Literally, literally, what does stopping Iran's ability to impact Hormuz mean? Sinking every floating thing on the Gulf? Destroying all harbours? Boat yards? Controlling the coast? What? Then we can muse on the how.
English
@darren_mac58595 @qa__rocks @AvidCommentator @RJEdwardsTweets Exactly. Unlike Iraq 2003, Iran is not going to let the US mass forces without being subject to serious sustained fires. Pretty sure the Kuwait armor supply base is the only one logistically possible and as you said it will be lit up with ballistic missiles if used to land forces
English
100% right. The last time the Marines tried to take a small island like this was in Korea with 3000 men and helecopters and they got their ass handed to them.
No marines are going near Iran. Neither is 100k troops.
They have no where to assemble and land all the ports are targets of ballistic missiles.
Iran won its over.
English
Fascinating but deeply concerning article on a timeline of Australia's path to slowly running out of fuel.
h/t @RJEdwardsTweets
theconcernedobserver.substack.com/p/1018-days-un…
English
@qa__rocks @AvidCommentator @RJEdwardsTweets There is a reason basically every nation asked to help has told Trump 'sorry but we aint getting involved'. Trying to sail anything into that little bathtub is going to be set on fire the same as the 10+ tankers already hit for trying to stupidly run the strait.
English
@qa__rocks @AvidCommentator @RJEdwardsTweets If you are talking about Kharg island, then that is basically irrevelant to the hormuz situation. Even taking that island doesn't help anything because then the marines are stuck on a small piece of flat land and can be pounded with sustained fires from the coast and inland.
English
@qa__rocks @AvidCommentator @RJEdwardsTweets No offense, but 2000 US marines aren't taking shit along the Hormuz coastline. There is a damn good reason the US navy has kept like 700km away. Also, to actually take that coastline would require like 150K troops minimum and still that probably wouldn't work out too well.
English
@AvidCommentator @RJEdwardsTweets even if it is in the ballpark we are in deep shit. i think the marines taking the island/coastline is pretty likely, and they should get there around march 25th, so a week to go. in other words, it wont be "resolved" for a few weeks at least, maybe months.
English
@SaysSimulation Good luck with that. Hope you enjoy the draft, because even entertaining this insanity would require that at a minimum. Wondering if you have even looked at a topographical map of the region?
English
We don't want to have to do this. But, if Iran make us take the land around the Strait of Hormuz, potentially 100+ miles inland - there are no givebacks. It could become part of an existing Gulf state, or a new country or a protectorate. Conquest has been the historically
1/
Labrador Skeptic@SaysSimulation
Look, I was opposed to this war before it started, but now that it has, we need the best outcome for America and our forces. If we have to use troops to take the land bordering the Strait of Hormuz, we may need to go back to the old ways, all of recorded history until 1/
English
@gizzmo1414 Please listen to Dread because Australia seems to be sleepwalking into a disaster atm. Now is the calm before the storm so best to go stock up on essentials now while supermarkets have stock. Once the reality of the situation seeps into the wider public, things will accelerate.
English
@brithume This would mean interdicting Chinese tankers potentially widening this to a two front war for the US. No doubt the Chinese have subs already lying in wait close to the gulf for such a situation. But sure go ahead and make this even more of a steaming pile of shit.
English
How long do you think the U.S. military will allow this to persist? If the strait is blocked, the U.S. surely has the power to cut off any Iranian use of the as well. Then what happens to Iran's economy and ability resist?
Michael Openshaw@mopenshaw
Iran is currently moving more oil that anyone else at the moment and is playing Godfather to any ship coming out of the Gulf. Yes, we resoundingly won the conventional phase of the war- but Iran has the edge right now on the asymmetrical phase of the war, where America has consistently had trouble.
English
@SouthAsiaIndex Good luck with that. Do go and mass a force on a tiny island in range of short range ballistic missiles and drones while being cut off from significant supply or reinforcement. Sounds just like a plan the current geniuses at the Pentagon would think up.
English
Just IN:— US is preparing for ground invasion of Iran's Kharg Island which is responsible for about 90% of Iran's oil exports.
English
@PrepperCanadian Selective service would take at least a year to get it's shit together to even call up such numbers. Then when you try to mass them at the only realistic supply base in Kuwait, they will be under sustained long range fires at the first sign of force generation
English
HOW TROOP DEPLOYMENTS WORK:
VIETNAM:
1960: 900
1961: 3,200
1962: 11,300
1963: 16,300
1964: 23,300
1965: 184,300
1966: 385,300
1967: 485,600
1968: 536,100
1969: 510,054 (Peak was 543,400 in April)
1970: 390,278
1971: 212,925
1972: 24,200
1973: 265
"BBBBUT WE DONT HAVE THE TROOPS"
There can be accelerated timelines like Afghanistan or Iraq which seen an initial surge of 150k troops. Iran will likely first see a small amount then a massive surge once the door is opened.
Mission creep.
English
@WeTheBrandon Easy for him to say now that he is out of the service and won't need to sail a ship into that bathtub of hell.
English
Agree. But I don’t think we can.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇺🇸🇮🇷 A retired U.S. Navy admiral says the U.S. should clear sea mines and secure the Strait of Hormuz. “If we don’t do this, the message to the world is that Iran controls that strait.” A chokepoint the world depends on. x.com/foxandfriends/…
English
@cym27s Why lie when it’s so obvious there was no shoot down? Do these Iranian officials not care about their credibility?
It’s probably just propaganda for their people.
English
This contradicts Iranian and Iraqi claims that the tankers were shot down or targeted over Iraq. There are no signs of fragmentation on the tail or around the damaged area which eliminates those claims
Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦@bayraktar_1love
Photo of the surviving Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker that managed to land safely after a mid-air collision with another KC-135, which crashed in Iraq.
English
@xeveriano1 @pati_marins64 Iran has built entire underground cities just to store their boats. What do you think?
English
@pati_marins64 It would be like Iwo Jima meets Gallipoli.
Does iran have defensive tunnel complexes carved into the mountains?
English
I have absolutely no idea how anyone could seize more than 2,000 km of Iranian coastline to secure the strait and capture Kharg Island.
How exactly would that even work if the Iranian navy is still fully operational with hundreds of missile launchers and at least 20 submarines?
Who’s going to confront Iranian drones in the air and at sea?
What kind of force is supposed to establish positions at the foot of the mountains that cover almost the entire Iranian coast? No force would survive there.
I agree that the only way to achieve any objective would be with boots on the ground, but I still don’t see the slightest chance of that happening.
If they actually try it, it will be a massacre, and I believe these lunatics might genuinely be thinking about doing it.
Steve Lookner@lookner
WSJ: "Reopening the strait, military analysts say, may require a ground operation to seize the Iranian coastline." wsj.com/world/middle-e…
English
NEW: Reopening the Straight of Hormuz likely to require US ground forces to seize Iran coast. -WSJ
English
Iran has published new footage showing moments when the US-owned oil tanker in the Persian Gulf was struck with a guided drone-boat.
Arya Yadeghaar@AryJeay
BREAKING: Footages published on Arab channels shows massive bursts of fire after an oil tanker was hit (allegedly by Iran) off the coast of Iraq.
English
@Corbulo7 @Glenn_Diesen Either way would work. I'm sure they got some kind of plan for it.
English
The US may try to seize Kharg Island, which handles 85-90% of Iran’s oil shipments. If the US does this, then Iran will likely strike every energy facility in the region.
English
#Russia abstained in the vote on Bahrain's Draft Resolution on #Iran's Strikes on Gulf Cooperation Council Countries because it is extremely unbalanced and does not serve the purposes of maintaining international peace and security.
russiaun.ru/en/news/411032…
Russia at the United Nations@RussiaUN
#Nebenzia: Russia will continue to make every effort to swiftly end the confrontation in the #MiddleEast & to resolve any differences by peaceful means. 👉We will provide every assistance to the countries in the region & other parties to the conflict. 🔗is.gd/O9evYV
English