Keld Ravn Cramer

IT'S OV-AH! Viktor Orban and his Fidesz party will lose power in today's Hungarian election. The only question now is whether Peter Magyar's Tisza Party will get the 133 seats it needs to change the constitution. I'd bet it will, but it might be close.

@Jonnocalypse @_francophobe Just make it one vote. A vote for a candidate on open party lists in a multi-member constituency, where 10-20 MSPs are elected in each.

@_francophobe I have some issues with it but it is certainly much better than FPTP. I actually think there should be far less list MSPs. The very worst, careerist obnoxious MSP's are all list who have never won an election in their lives.

scotland has put me off AMS as an electoral system so badly

Tired of this narrative! You can see the results of all of Silver’s political model predictions! He’s almost perfect!

Konsekvensen ville være, at stort set intet folketingsmedlem nogensinde ville turde være uenig med vedkommendes partiledelse om noget som helst. = ekstrem centralisering, partidisciplin o.s.v. Det ville også kræve en grundlovsændring. bt.dk/politik/flerta…

It’s kinda funny how everyone wants to call vingegaard a coward, yet he’s the only one that actually races intelligently and doesn’t get peer-pressured into ruining his own chances just so he can stay buddy-buddy with pog&co🤷‍♀️

This will be how Claude treats us post singularity

@hansersej Hvis der kommer en kongerunde mere, så skal alle løsgængere vel med?

Breaking: Emilie Schytte melder sig ud af Borgernes Parti. På 11 dage er partiet altså gået fra at have fire folketingsmedlemmer til kun at have to 😮 nyheder.tv2.dk/live/politik/2…

It's possible to finish 3rd in a 🌎 World Cup group with 1⃣, 2⃣, 3⃣, 4⃣, 5⃣ or 6⃣ points. Expected threshold to be among the Top 8 third-placed teams is currently on 3⃣ pts, with goal difference being the key determinant. 🎯 Expected line is currently between -2 GD and -3 GD. 3 pts and 0 GD is the lowest record that offers >90% to make it through as a 3rd-placed team. Probabilities show that a 3rd-placed team with 4⃣ pts would be extremely unlucky not to qualify. However, bear in mind that it's possible to finish 4th with 4 pts which means elimination. It happened to 🇺🇦 Ukraine at EURO 2024 and to 🇳🇴 Norway at WC 1994, both ended up last in a 4-4-4-4 group. Percentages here relate only to teams that finish 3rd. 👉 Input your own scenarios and see how it impacts 3rd-place and other probabilities in our 🕹️ Simulator

@nickgoff79 I only bet tiny amounts, but did go for Bolivia in this one as the odds looked too high considering the circumstances.

About the only World Cup opinion I’d semi-formed was oppose Bolivia in every outright market and match whoever they play, as whatever price they’d be for any game and to qualify was going to be too short. Wake up, see they’ve been knocked out by Iraq which I bet £0 on. Excellent.

@Gust_2319 Exactly. Don't think it would work for them. But they could convince themselves of the opposite, and would be an easier climbdown from the 'Blue government or opposition' statement

@Cramao_dk The issue with that is you then neither get the benefits of being in opposition nor the power of being in government.

Today on Tuesday the Danish government negotiations are continuing. Here is an overview of this, as well as what government constellations are possible. 🧵

@Gust_2319 Maybe some version of this with the Liberals not in government, but allowing it. They could try to rebuild somewhat outside government while staying as a 'responsible party' and making deals on economy, defence etc. And they don't have to be in deals killing off the farmers

The issues are multiple, but first and foremost: 1. Five parties in a government are a lot. 2. The Social Democrats (A) clearly prefer a government that includes SF (F). 3. Venstre (V) rather wants to recover in opposition, rather than be in a centrist government.

@linigerDR Så havde vi til gengæld nok også haft grupper med et hold mere, som de plejede, så vores kvalitet havde haft lidt flere kampe at komme til udtryk over og Skotland kunne dumme sig i Reykjavik eller Tirana 😃

Hvis Danmark kommer til VM i aften (som jeg både tror og håber), skal man sende en venlig tanke til den af mange udskældte udvidelse af VM. Europa er siden 2022 gået fra 13 til 16 VM-pladser, og var det ikke sket, så havde der næppe været noget at spille om i dag (1)

When football meets cycling. Denmark power. 🇩🇰 👋 Jonas Vingegaard 🚴

Tony Blair rejected claims that Israel’s war in Gaza amounts to genocide, warning that such rhetoric distorts reality and contributes to rising antisemitism across Europe. jpost.com/israel-news/sp…

Tony Blair: We must end left’s unholy alliance with the Islamists #Echobox=1774731436" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">thetimes.com/comment/column…

@MartinFlink DRs prognose havde også nogle meget specielle håb. Da der var talt ca 40% viste den ret klar blå føring. Virkede ikke til at kunne håndtere at landområder svingede blåt, og byerne den modsatte vej

Og her er en sammenligning af DR og TV2's respektive exitpolls og prognoser ifht. resultatet. Det grønne markere den af de to kategorier, der er tættest på det endelige resultat. #dkpol #dkmedier

At least now little girls who dream of Olympic medals will know that biological males can't cheat their way onto their podium...or punch them relentlessly in the face and get a medal for it. Credit to Sharron Davies and Martina Navratilova, who spoke up despite attacks from those who should've known better. They spoke up when it was easier to stay quiet and paid the price in lost income and support.

Alla val i Danmark. 🇩🇰

@zedsamcat There are three different threshold. Even if they miss the 2% nationally, they could get in via the 2/3 region rule

Updated forecast and party vote share at 90.6% counted 90 needed for majority 🟥Red bloc: 47.8% (84 seats) 🟦Blue bloc: 44.3% (77 seats) 🟪Moderates: 7.8% (14 seats) Borgernes Parti (H) is very close to not winning seats for the Blue bloc as the threshold is 2%! Currently have 4 seats but would have 0 if they drop below the magic number 👀 #dkpol #valg2026

@chdausgaard Plus en pæn sandsynlighed for at de kan komme ind via de to andre muligheder. Især Alternativet kan komme ind via kredsmandat, selv hvis de er under 2 %. Vi ved ikke meget om Borgernes Parti, men potentielt kunne de være et parti som kommer ind på 2/3-regioner reglen

Med ALT og BP på ~2,5% i de seneste målinger er begge i nærheden af spærregrænsen. Sandsynligheden for at én af dem ender med præcis 3 mandater er ~0,5% - lille men ikke 0. Og hvis ét af dem lander helt nede ved 2,0% på valgaftenen er det pludselig en reel mulighed.

HVAD SKER DER MED MANDATERNE TÆT PÅ SPÆRREGRÆNSEN? Ved valget i 2022 blev en obskur valglovsregel fra 1953 udløst for første gang nogensinde: S vandt ét afgørende ekstra kredsmandat mere end deres stemmeandel tilsagde. I aften kan en anden sjælden mekanisme træde i kraft.🧵