Criptosauro
666 posts
Looking at the $SPX / $VIX correlation, there is a very specific signature for generational bottoms. While a VIX above 20 usually flags local dips, the real "Global Bottoms" only seem to carve out when we see extreme panic—specifically when the VIX clears the 40 mark. We saw this play out perfectly during the Yen Carry Trade, which ignited a +15% rally, and the Tariffs War, which saw the S&P 500 surge by +33%. Right now, geopolitical tensions with Iran are waking up the volatility index, but we haven't reached that "max pain" threshold of 40 yet. If history is our guide, a spike above that level wouldn't be a reason to fear, but a signal that the ultimate buying opportunity is finally here. swissblock.net/products/sem @swissblock__ @HenrikZeberg
Bitcoin has never made a new ATH, after closing below the 50w, without touching the 200w first. Never. 🟥 50w 🟩 100w 🟦 200w The chart is simple. Once the 50w is crossed, the 100w is soon tested. In 2014 & 2022, the 100w served as short term support. Eventually, slicing below to the 200w. Currently: The 50w has been crossed, the 100w is currently acting as support. If we break that level, the 200w is next up. The purple vertical lines show where the 50w crosses below the 100w. This has historically been an amazing time to buy. Don't be fearful. Build your plan now. If this happens, you should be thankful. Once again, when Bitcoin closes above and reclaim the 50w, the bull continues. When that happens, no one knows.
Since the 10/10 flush, the funding rates across the board have cooled off slightly. This was to be expected considering coins lost anywhere from 30% to 60% of their entire open interest (primarily longs). But we've not really seen the funding rates go deep into the negative, indicating shorts are getting too excited for the market. This is due to the massive amount of spot selling, primarily on $BTC, which has happened in the past few weeks. Shorts can keep shorting as long as spot keeps selling. That way there won't be a massive inbalance between spot & futures prices which causes these funding rates to remain roughly steady where they are. So while funding rates aren't a massive indication of what to expect, in the short term I would be closely watching for these to turn further into the negative. Once they do, you can assume that spot selling is slowing down a bit or shorts are getting a bit overexcited. At that point, some a proper relief bounce is more likely to happen.
$BTC Buyers are back, spot CVD is going up while perps CVD is down, probably shorts are getting absorbed by passive chasing bids.
