Crisu

@BurggrabenH What does this chart show? Someone can explain?

Since the start of the war, gold has been negatively correlated to oil. Oil up, gold down. Why? Because the marginal gold buyer is not the West, it is EM Asia and Turkey. India alone is the world’s 2nd-largest gold buyer after China, across both central banks and retail. And the Rupee hates oil spikes, let alone an oil crisis like this. High oil intensity, limited crude storage, weak FX resilience. The mechanism is self-reinforcing: Higher oil → weaker growth -> weaker Rupee → even higher import costs (also for oil) → even weaker growth → weaker Rupee again -> repeat. That is precisely why Modi has moved to curb gold imports. He wants to support the Rupee (industry), not the consumer (gold is a hedge for a weaker Rupee). Well, not sure consumers will like it. So this will not last forever but I doubt it will stop before 2027. Turkey already went further and dumped reserves to support its FX. Other EM Asian countries may follow. Not just Asian, perhaps also ME countries? They are hardest hit by this crisis. Qatar & Kuwait come to mind. They have plenty of SWF reserves but the hit is big and the invoices keep coming. China offsets some of this through higher gold imports, but not enough, at least for now. Until the Strait of Hormuz situation stabilises, or EM Asia adjusts through demand destruction and policy responses, gold likely keeps bleeding, slowly, nothing dramatic, but bleeding. And no, I do not think there is a quick fix for the SoH crisis. The two sides are too far apart. Weak regimes can survive longer than people expect (they had little oil exports under Trump 1.0 and survived for years). Trump has midterms ahead & is unlikely to escalate materially without political support. Without regime change, the structural issue remains. So the oil market will likely solve this itself through painful adjustments into 2028: rerouted flows, new pipelines, permanent demand destruction, more coal, more efficiency. For now, China is doing the heavy lifting. Chinese crude imports in May were down 45% vs February. That single-handedly balances a large part of this mess. But not indefinitely. Once China decides to normalises imports closer to baseline, or Japanese SPR drawdowns fade, Brent likely reprices higher again, ceteris paribus. Korea is another big player in the puzzle to watch. Gold may stabilise before the full oil adjustment plays out. But I do not see much value in taking a rigid long-term view here. Too many moving parts. Mental flexibility remains key here. We have been risk-off since week one of the war, largely because we understand commodity transmission mechanisms. If this turns into a healthy correction in quality miners, I am certainly happy to buy it as the structural gold story remains largely unchanged. I explained it in 2023/24/25 on this channel. That is what I am watching.

@TonyRob70579912 @BigBiteNow @FirkinHugeGains Kefi plans to move away from AIM and to main market.

@BigBiteNow @FirkinHugeGains Investors on AIM consistently over estimate the time it takes to narrow the gap between sp and npv for resource projects, even for straightforward projects let alone one as drawn out of Kefi's. Look at #bres for comparison and scratch your head in puzzlement.

Adding to my #KEFI position at these levels. The Tulu Kapi project in Ethiopia has special status as a "Strategic Priority Project" for the Ethiopian government. (see below) This designation gives it priority allocation and service for diesel supplies. Not sure enough people know that fact.

@ZacWould @DonDurrett Hm, they notceven build a mine no have the finance

@Crisu1969 @DonDurrett Take a look at Big Ridge Gold Corp. 😎

My 165 positions. Hopefully you can read them. 🧐 What am I missing? Which dogs should I sell?

@KrahMax Na ja, Qatar + Kuweit haben leider keine Pupeline über die sie umleiten können. Die anderen haben auch keine, über die sie 100% umleiten können.

Trump postet die Idee einer US-Seeblockade des Golfs. Damit wäre auch China vom Ölstopp betroffen - während die US-Verbündeten dank der Saudi-Pipeline quer über die arabische Halbinsel versorgt würden. Weiterer Gewinner: Russland, das dann den Iran als Lieferant ersetzen könnte. Diese Entwicklungen zeigen, wie unsinnig die immer wieder zu hörenden Unkenrufe vom Ende der US-Macht sind. Nach wie vor hat Trump mehrere Optionen, die er nach Belieben nutzen kann und wird. Der Iran mag Hormuz sperren, aber dann wird eben der Iran gesperrt und für Kuwait, Saudi-Arabien, Qatar und die Emirate ein Bypass gelegt. Es ist ein Great Game.

@CarcassSmellby @ThiedeInvests Lahontam gold not even have a permission.

@ThiedeInvests The main reason why it's a steal is the short time to production. Lahontan is getting close, and yet it's priced like an explorer.

$LG Lahontan Gold and $SLVR Silver Tiger have huge leverage and both are potential 20x candidates. I bought again on Friday and expect a significant price increase by the end of the year at the latest.

@Amena__Bakr Why the Saudi not attack Iran too. They only sit, wait and allow the Iran attack. Why not defend their country?

Overnight Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry via the Saudi state news agency listed the attacks the kingdom’s energy sector faced in recent days. Multiple attacks hit Saudi energy infrastructure across Riyadh, Eastern Province, and Yanbu—targeting pipelines, production, and refineries—killing 1, injuring 7, and cutting ~600K bpd in output while disrupting global supply and markets. Attacks (listed): East-West Pipeline pumping station → ~700K bpd throughput loss Manifa production facility → ~300K bpd reduction Khurais facility → ~300K bpd reduction Refineries targeted: SATORP (Jubail), Ras Tanura, SAMREF (Yanbu), Riyadh refinery Ju’aymah processing facilities → fires impacting LPG & NGL exports #OOTT #SaudiArabia

@mattkiu And what is so special sbizt BTR?

I bought another tranche of Australian miner #Brightstarresources $BTR and doubled my position there. Had a videocall with their MD yesterday. One of the best gold plays out there atm imho. Totally overlooked and great value for the next 6 to max 12 months. Target price 2 AUD = 5folder. Would have bought it today anyway and got it at .037 instead of 0.40 thanks to gold going down on policitical/iran comments

@mattkiu @hazelwood_dave So before the price spike in oil.

@hazelwood_dave they already finished their hedging for 2026 and most of 2027 in February

Sasol. Looking at futures, they can hedge oil above $80 for next 12 months. Given their debt levels, probably not a bad idea. And they can probably structure it in way that they don't lose out on big additional oil spikes.

@Nichola77431904 @DerApfelmannYT The situation eith the war is more bad according to Braskem x.com/i/status/20375…

@Crisu1969 @DerApfelmannYT Dumbass that was not the spreads as they are today

$BAK "Braskem Warns on Struggle to Stay a Going Concern; Losses Widen" Smells like dept restructuring and/or capital dilution comming soon. I told yoz months ago here on X bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@lasse108 On this warning from $BAK today: "Braskem Warns on Struggle to Stay a Going Concern" No thank you. Braskem will be a buy after restructuring. Not now.

@Crisu1969 You should be buying

And everybody else selling today $BAK is dumb too?

@Nichola77431904 @DerApfelmannYT You know what, dont need your numbers. Just look at the share price today. So everybody who is selling today is a dumbass and only you is the genius

@Nichola77431904 @DerApfelmannYT And how are the spready now. Show me some numbers

@Nichola77431904 @DerApfelmannYT Ah understand, thats why $BAK made only a 11 billion BRL LOSS in 2025 because the spreads are so good.

@Crisu1969 @DerApfelmannYT They do not have a negative spread dumbass. Shit was better when you weren’t here

@Crisu1969 Raw material price haven’t gone up nearly as much as PP prices, spread is huge right now.

@Amstal2 @DerApfelmannYT Up to now only Qatar declared some LNG terminals are destroyed which would take 3-5y to rebuild. No petrochemical infrastructure have been destroyed so far.

@Crisu1969 @DerApfelmannYT dude have you seen the amount of infraestruture blown up in the ME? You think this gets solved quickly?

@Amstal2 @DerApfelmannYT Okey, the chance for restructuring has increased a lot.

@Crisu1969 @DerApfelmannYT not much has changed?

@DerApfelmannYT Not much has changed for $BAK. The war will not continue for ever. And secondly the prices for Naptha+Gas have increased too. You cant just look at the price if products Braskem is producing but also at the raw material price.

@Crisu1969 But wasn’t this month before the price is exploded I think outlook has changed quite materially.

@Kelly1010x @trend_bullish What you mean with JV wells?

@trend_bullish hitting new 52 week highs almost weekly and still grossly undervalued. Their JV wells are just crushing it, even more so with this oil price!

$JOY.TO blue sky