miles44

@CommodMkt @websterdrake thank you very much sir! - If I may add a follow-up question: would you therefore also (still) be positiveabout oil producers/stocks or only oil itself?

To begin it’s important to know that futures are not like stocks. You cannot buy them and hold them as they expire. Today prompt WTI is July 2026. If you bought it today, you have 2 choices: 1) hold it to expiration on June 22nd and take delivery of the oil in Cushing (which I assume you don’t want to) or 2) sell it before then and buy the August contract which is trading like $3.50-$4.00 lower. That’s what we call a roll. Now if nothing changes over the next month you do the roll again you will make like a c.4% return. Compound that over a year it’s near 50%. That’s the roll yield and 50% is insanely large. This why I am still long even if a deal causes a 25% correction as I am still making money. This was my point to Robin - it’s priced into the curve. I have never cared if the return comes through price appreciation or the roll. You are still getting paid. Now why is this opposite to 2009 and 2020 - real mega oil gluts. In 2009 and 2020 we had super contango where the negative carry was so large that as the “spot” rallied a long position struggled to get in the money as you “rolled” down the curve. The market was still in a massive surplus (a real oil glut) so while CBs stimulated and asset prices appreciated a long in oil couldn’t overcome the fundamental weakness. Look at the graphs of 2009 and 2020.

Yep- the explanation of the forward curve is Sisyphean task

@CommodMkt @websterdrake the opposite? Could you explain, sir?

So true Jamie! I got on to X hopefully to enlighten the uninitiated about commodities so they can trade them. I want to prevent what happened in 2009 and 2020 when people bought oil and commodities on the low and watched the “spot” price rally by c.100% only to find that they lost 10%. Today it’s the opposite.

BREAKING: Iran's Ghalibaf fully rejects Pakistani Army Chief claims of a "final understanding" toward an agreement and a "60-day ceasefire extension," telling him directly "Iran will not compromise on the rights of the nation in any maximalist US agreement," with the US being "not an honest party." The entire Pakistani delegation and Army Chief have left Tehran without any agreement, as the IRGC says it is now ready for a "decisive confrontation" with the US this weekend. An informed source to Tasnim also denied today's Al Arabiya report claiming Iran proposed a 10-year enrichment suspension and wants to discuss nuclear, calling it "completely fabricated" and exposing the Pakistani-Arabic media channel as manipulation architecture once again.

"I want you to apologize. I want you to pay me. I want you to thank me. And then I never want to see you again."

@GumpyMonkey @Ric_RTP @grok @grok where did he say the money is going?

@Ric_RTP @grok where did he say the money is going?

JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon just said a financial crisis is coming. Bond yields just hit historic levels in the US, UK, Germany, and Japan simultaneously. The last time this happened was right before the 2008 financial crisis. And Dimon just confirmed that $5 to $6 TRILLION in leveraged loans are sitting out there right now and the companies holding that debt are going to have a very hard time refinancing at current rates. The equity values of those companies would be "considerably less" and a lot of those borrowers didn't hedge for higher rates. Then he said he personally would NOT buy credit spreads at these levels. The CEO of the largest bank in America just told you he thinks corporate debt is mispriced and he would not touch it with his own money. Then the interviewer asked about AI and everyone forgot he said it. Jamie Dimon warns about a recession every single year but this is the first year where the numbers are actually proving him RIGHT: 3 days ago the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.2%, the highest since 2007. The 10-year is sitting at 4.62%. The US government has $31 trillion in public debt and the average interest rate on that debt is 3.5%. They cannot refinance a single dollar of it at a lower rate than what they are currently paying. And they have $9.7 trillion in securities maturing THIS YEAR that needs to be rolled over. Meanwhile the new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh was just sworn in on Friday. Traders are now betting there will be ZERO rate cuts for the rest of 2026 and the probability of a rate HIKE is rising. The Iran war has pushed oil to four-year highs. Inflation reaccelerated in April to the highest annual rate in three years. And private credit defaults just hit a record high with a 9.2% default rate in their US private credit portfolio. Dimon laid out exactly how this plays out: He said sentiment can flip overnight and specifically named the crashes of 1973, 1982, 1994, and 2000 and said the setup before each one looked exactly like this. Everyone confident, everyone buying, liquidity everywhere. Then something shifts and people want cash. And when people want cash they sell risky assets at precisely the wrong time. Liquidity disappears at the exact moment everyone needs it. And he also told you where the money is going: JPMorgan had 35,000 employees in New York when he took over. Now it has 26,000. Texas went from 12,000 to 33,000. He said in the 1970s, New York had 120 Fortune 500 companies. 60 of them left in a single decade because of taxes and crime. And when the interviewer asked about the new NYC mayor raising taxes on the wealthy, Dimon basically told him to his face that the erosion has already started. The capital is already leaving. So let's put this together: - Bond yields at 19-year highs - $9.7 trillion in government debt to refinance this year - $5-6 trillion in leveraged corporate loans that cannot refinance at these rates - Private credit defaults at record levels - Inflation reaccelerating - No rate cuts coming - A Fed chairman who hasn't even settled into the chair yet - The CEO of America's biggest bank saying he would not buy corporate debt at current prices - And the same CEO quietly moving his bank out of New York Every single one of these signals was present before the crashes Dimon himself named.

@calvinfroedge yes - nature will heal

On the bright side, young people might be able to afford homes soon Single family home prices are dropping like a rock

very true for #Sasol $SSL - already made me 3x after 14months, but will continue to outperform. Those selling now (and there aren´t many = low volume) cut their gains and will miss it going up to my target for 2030 at 40 USD. So it may be 5 years, not 7, as mentioned by Warren... but still a too long approach, especially for US = momentum investors. SA investors are more patient I guess. $JSESOL

Jeff Bezos: “I once asked Warren Buffett, why don’t more people copy your investment strategy? It’s not that difficult to understand in principle. And he said, ‘Oh, Jeff, that’s easy. My approach is a get-rich-slowly scheme.’ And people don’t like those.” “If you can think in terms of seven years instead of three years, and you can defer gratification and think long term, that will give you a head start against all of your competitors, because most people can’t do that.”

Put it on the board!

@KeanoSA and you know what: I would be VERY happy for South Africa as a whole if things work out for the country finally .... Go Bokke haha :)

@mattkiu 100% agree! Sasol employed my old man for 42 years from a zero base and, as a result, put both my brother and I through Uni...huuuuge opportunity for Sasol, and its entire community, to flourish once again after a few 'rough' years.

The world has already realized the trap that the US government has bombed itself in by attacking Iran. And China + Iran will not let them out of it easily as the US wanted and wants to cut off China from oil. The world is just beginning to realize what that means for oil markets. And the stock market will soon not sell on fake news from the white house about "we are 2 seconds away from a peace deal" anymore. There is no peace deal and the only option for the US will be to retreat with some "story" about congress not allowing the war anymore. "We would have shown them, but we were stabbed in the back by our own men..." just what the german military told the public after having lost WW1 ... so what could be the lt solution? The US retreating and Iran permanently taxing a toll on everything passing the Strait of Hormus for example ... will that come with permanently higher oil prices? YOU BET ... will that re-evaluate oil companies? ... well if that makes you even think you should skip following me 😂 A company like #Sasol $SSL $JSESOL with its own coal-to-oil production, its own refinery, its own petrochemical business and its geographical independence ... just about the BEST investment I could find over a year ago. It has since tripled - and is still only at 20% of its ATH ... let that sink in .... your thoughts are more than welcome @toiletkingcap @hkuppy @mineralstocks @calvinfroedge

@calvinfroedge it seemed to be so easy after Venezuela - but it was a trap long before set

Iran handed the US a defeat like it hasn't felt in generations

well yes ... as for that ... society tried to solve the problem by killing the whole industry and with it come all the problems of: "no fuel, biggest employer gone, lots of poverty". The solution to pollution should be technical (filters etc) and tbh the world has made HUGE advances in the last 25 years. I just remember that I studied in Paris in 1998 and the joggers were called "les filtres" - the filters, because the (sarcastically) filtered the air pollution with their lungs. Now Paris is another/lot better city: clean air, clean walkways etc ... so: sorry for your polluted youth (I mean it), but South Africa should profit from Secunda in the following decades AND use the best methods to solve pollution problems

@mattkiu Very true @mattkiu I grew up in Secunda, so unfortunately all the profit I make off Sasol needs to be put aside for my eventual lung transplant 😂

Have had a look at Kumba some months ago. What I do not like about Kumba is management. Seems to be politically (BEE/woke) motivated like "we need a black woman as CEO" .... if you look at her CV it´s not very convincing. Reminds me of Transnet management. Plus Kumba CFO with low experience. And apparently they do not have a COO. So as from a management point of view: no wonder they are underperforming ...

@mattkiu Kumba, I'm tempted to start building a position but with the bleak current and future economic outlook, I think I should just hang 10, what do you think?

$SSL $JSESOL #Sasol shares will go up substantially in the following 2-3 weeks. My feeling would be 25 % in 2-3 weeks or more ... why I think that? Just a feeling 😇 But I wouldn´t be surprised.

@ChantelleC971 which are your favorite companies to invest in iron ore @ChantelleC971 ?

@mattkiu Spot on ! But thread carefully, last thing we'd wanna do is be exit liquidity. Personally I'm waiting for opportunity to cash out, and rotate into iron ore

@ChantelleC971 the institutions will come in at higher prices. Who gets in now are those in the know - or those who have a good gut feeling .. Institutions are like St. Thomas. They only believe what they see = they react on numbers. The way to make money is to buy before them

@mattkiu Once they release their results on 03 June, then most likely the institutions will start pouring in realizing the turnaround, same play if we look back to 2022 DYOR

Imagine a world where oil gets scarce, where oil products like diesel or gasoline are even more scarce - and where petrochemical products have become "the new gold" ... and now imagine a company that 1. makes oil out of cheap coal 2. is independent of the US/China/Europe 3. has its own refinery 3. makes oil products and 4. also makes petrochemical products ... and now imagine this company´s share is priced at only 20% of its all time high. Yes, companies like $SM $CVX $OXY $SLB or ETF like $OIH or $XES are all cool - but I am still looking - and not finding - a better investment than Sasol since I invested in February and April 2025 ... so I have been in and out of this stock .. but I always return. And yes, it has already made me some great money (x3) 💰 $SSL $JSESOL #Sasol @hkuppy @BeffaOlja @JoshYoung

@grahammclennan I´m into $SSL ... betting on #nasdaq going down is a logic thing, but against the printing press and against the lemmings. #Sasol´s rise to new glory on the contrary is quite a safe bet.

@mattkiu hope you bought those Puts again on Nasdaq! Still holding my $SSL, short $HMY (both in ZAR but I like the new feature on tweets)

GOLD & SILVER MINERS - If you think this is a good, low-risk entry point, I strongly disagree. It'll take TIME for the next one to develop, and as that time passes, a deeper correction may develop.

I correct the uneducated part of the last post: what is for sale is Prax Groups 36% stake in Natref. So it’s not about Saaol keeping its stake, they are majority owner and don’t sell. Prax has to sell duevto their situation. The rest of what I wrote doesn’t change: three different companies bidding for the stake, one of them renowned Trafigura, shows that market insiders definitely see a lot of value in it, which is absolutely right.

Back in $SSL $JSESOL #Sasol with 150% of my lt pf size. If the current oil crisis in the making plus the high interest to buy a minority stake in natref is showing one thing: refineries are the new gold. It´s also about getting oil. But even more so about the limited number of refineries. There could be a shortage in oil - but there will be even more so in petrochemicals and oil products. And which company is producing it all? And not from oil, but from coal out of South Africa, independent of Hormus? Yes ... Sasol