Crypto Hermes

A16Z LIÊN TỤC MUA $HYPE - SO SÁNH VỚI $MKR NĂM 2018 Động thái gom hàng $HYPE của a16z trong những ngày qua không giống những lần khác, vì trước đây họ thường mua OTC/deal private, giờ họ lên trực tiếp market mua và stake Trước đây thì chỉ có duy nhất với MKR hồi 2018 từng tương tự, liệu HYPE có tiềm năng tương tự không các bác? 1. Sự kiện mới nhất của A16Z - Tính đến hôm nay (14/05/2026), dữ liệu on-chain từ ví 0xb5E4...Fc24e (được xác nhận liên quan đến a16z) cho thấy họ mua vào nhiều lần - Mới nhất: 8 giờ trước, ví này tiếp tục chi ~1.97 triệu USD để mua thêm 50.168 HYPE. - Tổng 30 ngày a16z đã mua 1.64 triệu HYPE khỏi thị trường, tương đương giá trị ~69.43 triệu USD. => Vị thế hiện tại: Dù đang ghi nhận mức lỗ chưa thực hiện (unrealized loss) hơn 6 triệu USD, quỹ này vẫn không có dấu hiệu dừng lại, thậm chí đã stake 1.3 triệu HYPE để củng cố quyền quản trị. 2. Nhìn lại MKR năm 2018: Tiền lệ duy nhất tương đồng - Quay ngược về tháng 9/2018 với thương vụ MakerDAO ($MKR): - Bối cảnh 2018: a16z chi 15 triệu USD mua trực tiếp 60.000 $MKR (6% tổng cung) từ Maker Ecosystem Growth Holdings. Đây không phải vòng gọi vốn sơ cấp truyền thống mà là một đợt mua trực tiếp nhằm nắm giữ quyền biểu quyết (Governance). => Kết quả: Vị thế mua ở giá ~$250 đó đã mang lại lợi nhuận khổng lồ khi $MKR vượt mốc $6.000 vào năm 2021 (tăng 24 lần). Quan trọng hơn, nó giúp a16z định hình toàn bộ đế chế DeFi đời đầu. 3. Tốc độ gom HYPE hiện tại mạnh hơn - Nếu như năm 2018 là mua từ một thực thể (Strategic Purchase), thì năm 2026 là mua trực tiếp trên Market (Secondary Market). Điều này có nghĩa a16z chấp nhận cạnh tranh thanh khoản và trượt giá trực tiếp với các nhà đầu tư khác. - Số tiền gần 70 triệu USD đổ vào $HYPE chỉ trong 1 tháng vượt xa con số 15 triệu USD của thương vụ MKR năm xưa - Việc DCA bất chấp khoản lỗ 6 triệu USD cho thấy a16z đang chơi một "game" dài hơi, ưu tiên việc thâu tóm lượng cung lưu thông hơn là tối ưu hóa giá vốn. - Ý kiến các bác ra sao? Liệu HYPE có tương lai vượt trội hơn cách phát triển của MKR đã từng không khi mà vốn hóa của HYPE đã rất cao (gần 10 tỷ) so với MKR thời điểm đó (chỉ khoảng hơn 300 triệu USD)?

这就是你们说的人工智能泡沫、国运级的上涨么？ 太可怕了，每天打开软件，韩国板块的龙头公司，全是 5 - 10 个点的上涨，没有任何回调，连指数也是。

S&P 500 just hit a new ATH of 7,400. After closing 6 consecutive weeks in green, stocks have opened another week in green. Meanwhile, Oil prices are still going up, no US-Iran negotiation is happening, and consumers are struggling.

赌性最强的韩国人已经从加密市场撤了，目前亏损最严重的土耳其人，包括中国大陆很多人也已经慢慢进入美股市场了，赵四最近挺难的，到处还让名人给他背书，说10.11不是他造成的，那你倒是公布10.11晚的数据啊？😅韭菜再傻也知道你们交易所的伎俩了

🚨 ATTENTION : ces tweets qui « prédisent » l’avenir en ce moment… c’est du pur FAKE. Je vous explique exactement comment ils font (c’est ridicule de simplicité) et surtout pourquoi ils le font. Ils créent des comptes privés avec des milliers de tweets programmés à l’avance : « Le vainqueur de la prochaine CDM sera… », « La prochaine épidémie s’appellera… », etc. Dès qu’un événement se produit, ils suppriment TOUS les autres tweets, gardent uniquement celui qui a « vu juste », passent le compte en public… et hop, miracle. Pourquoi ils font ça ? Pour farmer les stats. Le vrai compte (souvent un gros compte) screen le tweet en premier, le partage, et l’armée des complotistes arrive en masse. Résultat : 100 à 150 millions de vues en quelques heures. Et ça rapporte très gros : être le premier sur ce genre d’info peut rapporter 4 000 à 5 000 $ grâce à la monétisation X. Avec la monétisation qui s’est généralisée, vous allez en voir de plus en plus. Dans quelques mois, ce sera devenu un vrai problème. À chaque événement majeur, quelqu’un sortira « un tweet de 2022 » qui avait tout prévu… C’est drôle ? Oui. C’est rentable ? Clairement. Mais moi ça me pose un gros problème : ça nourrit le complotisme comme jamais. X doit-il modérer ce genre de manipulation ou on laisse faire au nom de la « liberté » ?

🚨 ALERTE : QUAND CET INDICATEUR S’EFFONDRE, ÇA FINIT MAL On avait vu exactement la même chose avant la crise de 2008. Le ratio LEI / CEI du Conference Board vient de retomber à 0,84. Le même niveau qu’avant la crise financière. Le problème ? Les données qui prédisent l’économie FUTURE s’effondrent… alors que les données du PRÉSENT paraissent encore solides. ▪️LEI = indicateurs avancés (Commandes, construction, chômage, confiance des consommateurs…) ⮕ Sert à prévoir l’économie dans 6 à 9 mois. ▪️CEI = économie actuelle (Emploi, revenus, ventes, production industrielle…) ⮕ Montre ce qui se passe maintenant. Quand le ratio LEI/CEI chute, ça signifie une chose : Le futur se dégrade beaucoup plus vite que le présent. Les chiffres commencent à devenir inquiétants : ▪️LEI : -0,6% en mars ▪️7e baisse mensuelle consécutive ▪️5 années de baisse d’affilée en approche = record historique ▪️Historiquement, ces niveaux apparaissent uniquement pendant les récessions Et pendant ce temps-là ? Le marché continue de monter. ▪️S&P 500 en ATH ▪️Résultats bancaires solides ▪️Les investisseurs célèbrent chaque “bonne nouvelle” Mais en parallèle : ▪️Les commandes ralentissent ▪️La confiance des consommateurs s’effondre ▪️Les indicateurs avancés continuent de chuter Le marché a-t-il raison ? Ou est-ce que les indicateurs avancés voient déjà ce qui arrive ? Historiquement, à chaque fois que cette divergence est apparue, ce sont les indicateurs avancés qui ont eu raison. Source : Yardeni Research

$BTC I have always been a fan of HTF's and historical levels. I've always used these to build out HTF ideas in my charts and execution. I just want to point out how clean these lows were where each weekly candle closed or opened at the 21 cycles 1W ATH closes and opens perfectly. really look at how the candles opened and closed Admittedly, I had bought 69k and sold 75-76k and then rebought that + more at 78k. (2-3k higher than where I last sold) It's been a great year so far. We traded 85k to 92k end of Q4, 69-75k and the current trade while avoiding drawdown from the last 8 months and are now able to accumulate far more BTC. As prev said I think the real line in the sand is the mid 80's closes for momentum. But I do think the lows are in. In terms of the end goal. I dont know when, just that the likely path remains higher.

The predominant pattern here is still very much a bear flag, and now Bitcoin is at the top of the channel, the point where people start to question whether the bottom is in. Some quick stats: Current bear flag time: 86 Days Longest bear flag time (since Nov 2021): 100 Days Total bear flags: 7 It's typical to see these flags finally break to the downside after the second major retest of the top of the channel, which is happening now.

hyperliquid:native Long term, this is probably the best alt in the space. If the market does well, this stands to benefit the most from increased volume and users. Not just from crypto users, but retail who want to trade weekends. I've refrained from mentioning alts for 8 months and that will continue. This is the only one I've mentioned this year when we were around 28. Outside of this, for 95% of cases I dont see why you'd trade alts when stocks are doing 10-100x with far better risk/reward. But if I had to pick one with the best risk asymmetry. this would be it. Above $50 I think we see new ath's with haste

Has Bitcoin $BTC bottomed? Well, this is perhaps the most respected technical line in Bitcoin’s history. For nearly ten years, this ascending trendline has acted as the launchpad. Every touch has historically preceded a massive expansion: • 2017: +968% • 2018: +259% • 2020: +1,126% • 2022: +660% With Bitcoin recently dipping to $65,000, it has held above this trendline again, suggesting the bottom could be in.

Why the Stock Market Is Going to Crash: Part 1: What the 1973 Oil Crisis Teaches Us: The Big Sunday Report: Back in 1973, about 5–7% of the world's oil demand was cut off for roughly 5 months, and the consequences led to the worst crash in history since the Great Depression! Today, around 20% of the WORLD'S OIL DEMAND has been affected for 2 months, and there's no end in sight. This means the situation today is even worse than it was during the 1973 oil crisis, and yet most don't understand the pattern! This brings me to the question of how the $SPX (SP500) behaved then, and we need to compare it with now. In 1973, the #SPX crashed 20% as in October 1973 the Oil Embargo was announced. During that time, the S&P 500 was 7% away from its ATH, recovering from an earlier 17% correction, and the market was in strong euphoria believing in the next rally. Investors thought the worst was over, and out of the sudden the embargo hit the market and we saw a sharp drop of 20% that followed in October 1973. The same we saw in March 2026, the Strait of Hormuz was closed and the S&P 500 reacted with a 10% downside move. This is what I call the first shockwave, but what if I tell you that the real, and much worse downside move happened after the announcement of the end of the oil embargo was made ? The oil embargo officially ended on March 17, 1974. This is when the real crash began, and the S&P 500 crashed 40% within the next 6 months! This was the worst crash since the Great Depression, and only 2008 was worse. The crash didn't happen during the embargo. It happened after the embargo was lifted, when everyone assumed things were going back to normal. The damage to the economy, the inflation, the higher input costs, the broken consumer, had already been done, and the market understood the damage and we see it today as well, as the parallel today is direct. The S&P 500 is making new highs while an oil supply shock is unfolding. Investors are doing exactly what they did in 1973: assuming the issue will resolve and pricing in a soft landing. But once the economic damage becomes visible in earnings and consumer spending, the same delayed reaction is likely to play out, and this is exactly what was addressed by Jerome Powell in the most recent FOMC meeting! Inflation is rising again, the FED can't ease anymore! Part 2: The Private Credit and Banking Risk: There's a type of investment fund called a private credit fund. These funds lend money to large companies, working a lot like hedge funds. The problem is that they borrow huge amounts of money themselves to make bigger loans and bigger profits. This is called leverage, and it's a double edged sword. When things go well, profits are programmed, but when things go badly, losses are programmed too. The situation right now is alarming. Investors are pulling their money out at a record pace, with over $7 billion withdrawn from major private credit funds in late 2025. BlackRock has even blocked some investors from withdrawing money. Loan defaults are at record highs as well, with 5.8% of private credit loans in default as of January 2026, the highest level ever recorded! About 40% of the companies that borrowed from these funds are now burning more cash than they earn, and the stock market is starting to notice, with shares of big private equity and credit firms falling sharply. If these funds collapse, banks go down with them, because banks lent them much of the money in the first place. So what happens if banks fail? Since the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act in the U.S. and the 2014 EU bank rescue rules, governments are no longer supposed to bail out failing banks with taxpayer money. Instead, they use something called a bail-in. They take money from depositors and bondholders and turn it into bank shares. The result is that bank stocks crash and ordinary people lose part of their savings. This is why physical gold and silver are the only real safe haven. I consider owning them a MUST. The Main Warning Signs The first and most important is oil. In 1973, oil first moved up, and the stock market crash came after the Arab nations reopened oil supply. The damage was already done. What we're seeing now in the S&P 500 looks like the final push higher before the expected crash. History is repeating itself. The second is the yield curve inversion. This happens when short-term interest rates rise above long-term rates, which is a clear warning sign. It has come before every U.S. recession in the past 50+ years, usually 12 to 24 months in advance. Back in 2025, I wrote a full report pointing to June 2026 as the likely crash zone, and the report was written in September 2025 and can be found here: x.com/DrProfitCrypto… The third is insider selling at record speed. Company executives and big shareholders have been dumping their own stock at a pace never seen before, especially since August–September 2025. When insiders are selling this aggressively, it tells you everything you need to know and thats something I observe since many months! The fourth is extreme risk appetite, and right now it's at its highest point since 2021. In simple words, risk appetite means how much investors are willing to bet on risky things like stocks instead of keeping their money safe. Right now, investors are throwing money into risky assets like never before. According to EPFR fund flow data, risky assets have seen record net inflows exceeding safe assets by 220bn over the last 4 weeks, the strongest since the 2021 meme-stock peak. To put it simply, people are pouring much more money into stocks than into safe places, and the gap is the biggest we've seen in years. This also aligns with updates to S&P Global's Investment Manager Index risk appetite gauge and Goldman's proprietary RAI, both hitting multi-year highs. This is the same type of euphoria we saw right before the 2021 top, and history shows that when everyone is greedy and chasing the market at the same time, the top is usually very close and this is the moment when risk appetite is this extreme, it's a clear warning sign, and trust me, you dont want to be among the losers who bought the top! The 1929 Parallel: Why You Need to Study the Great Depression Study the Great Depression of 1929, and I can't repeat it often enough. Study it, you need to study 1929! You will notice many similarities. The people who owned physical gold and silver back then were the big winners. Land was sold for even one penny because there was no liquidity at all. Farmers had tons of wheat but there was no one able to buy it. The US President Herbert Hoover famously said right before the great depression, "Prosperity is just around the corner," talking about the stock market and its bullish movements and claiming that nothing could stop the upside move. Everyone in the US was invested in stocks back then, the same as today, as record amounts of retail investors are sitting on stocks currently, the highest amount of retails ever recorded. Now, a hundred years later, we have another president talking about the stock market like no one else. Trump is talking about being tired of winning, or calling it the best economy ever based on the stock market, and ignoring the real economy that is suffering and has no liquidity to breathe currently. I see tons of similarities, and I am scared to even speak it out, but my biggest concern is a repeat of the Great Depression. I am not a doomsday caller, but I am here to remind you that physical gold and silver are more important than ever, no matter what the price says. My Trade and My Targets Let me be clear about where I stand. I am not just talking, I am positioned. I have shorted the S&P 500 at 6400, 6700, 6900, and 7100, and my final order remains open in the 7400 region if the market gives us that opportunity. In my view, we are deep inside top territory, and I am placing my shorts right here, right now, for every single reason laid out above. The signs are everywhere. Spotting the top is not the hard part, anyone paying attention can see it. The hard part is pinpointing the exact target on the way down, because that depends entirely on one thing: will the FED print again? And the answer that history teached us is simple. The FED only starts to print once a crisis hits, and now lets ask the same for 2008, where the FED wasnt able to print more money, and the Lehman crisis and the 2008 crash started and how likely is it in the current time ? In 2008, the FED did not intervene to save Lehman Brothers. Everyone expected a rescue, everyone assumed the FED would step in like it did with Bear Stearns just months earlier. But the FED let Lehman fail, the bank went bankrupt, and the entire financial system nearly collapsed with it. That single decision changed everything. It triggered the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, and it is the exact reason the bail-in laws I mentioned earlier even exist today. Dodd Frank in the US and the EU bank rescue rules were both born directly out of the chaos of 2008, designed so that taxpayers would never again foot the bill. Next time, depositors and bondholders pay, and this is where the real risk hits the ordinary person. In simple words, if your bank fails, the government will not save it with taxpayer money like in 2008. Instead, the bank takes a part of your savings, anything sitting in your account, and converts it into worthless bank shares of the failing bank. Your money is gone, replaced by stock in a bank that just collapsed. In the EU, deposits up to €100,000 are technically protected by deposit insurance, and in the U.S. up to $250,000 by the FDIC, but anything above that is fair game, and history has already shown us this is not theory. It happened in Cyprus in 2013, where depositors lost a huge chunk of their savings overnight, and this will let the fire of the crash expand. So for my targets, I see three realistic scenarios, and they all depend on the FED: Scenario 1: The FED panics and prints again. If inflation cools enough to give them room, they flood the system with liquidity, and the crash is contained to a sharp but limited drop. This is the most "comfortable" outcome for the market. Scenario 2: The FED is trapped by inflation and cannot print. With inflation rising again, as Powell himself just confirmed, the FED may have its hands tied. No money printing, no rescue, and the market bleeds out for months. This is the painful, drawn-out scenario. Scenario 3: A full 2008-style collapse. The FED lets something break, just like they let Lehman break, and the entire system cracks open. Bail-ins get activated, banks fall, savings get wiped, and the SP 500 sees a crash on the scale of 2008 or worse. This is a very real option, and I refuse to take it off the table. I am positioned for all three, and depends on the targets the probability that we are at top area is extreme high. The only question left is how deep the FED is willing to let this fall, and based on inflation, based on Powell's own words, and based on the political climate, I believe the risk of scenario 2 or 3 is far higher than the market is currently pricing in. The top is in, or it is extremely close. I am short, and I am staying short with an invalidation once the FED starts printing once again! The next weeks will be very important and many will miss out on real time updates and thats where premium is worth everything. It costs $59 / month and thats less than some of the trading fees you are paying! I cant repeat it more often but premium offers insights you are getting no-where else. Join here: whop.com/joined/drprofi…

You can barely see the bear market we just went through I liked it better when we went down 80% and then up infinite but oh well we're all adults now I guess

⚠️ S&P just casually pumped 1000+ points in April. The previous ALL-TIME record was 400. Even post-2008 and COVID capped at ~350. This is the BIGGEST move in 95 years. So the question is: HOW IS $BTC NOT AT $100K ALREADY???

❓‘Aren’t you concerned that $SPX keeps on making ATHs? How could $BTC fall to $40k when the stock market is so strong?’ Actually, we had something similar in 2018 - it was also a bear market year for $BTC, stocks were climbing higher and higher while $BTC was printing lower highs. And then around the midterms we had a major crash 📉

I don't really think BTC is going much lower from here Chop is the worst case in my head from here on out (Unless the world ends but useless to pontificate that)

In hindsight this massive OBV bear div on the daily and weekly for the S&P 500 will make sense. Doesn't mean we still can't go higher first though.

When Gensler left the SEC in January 2025, Bitcoin was at 109k. Today Bitcoin is at 75k. One major reason the crypto markets have suffered is because market participants started to lose faith in the industry itself. After Gensler left, it essentially just opened the floodgates to the grifting age of crypto, where influencers and politicians were launching memecoins and rug-pulling their followers each and every day, without fear of any repercussions. This led to a massive misallocation of capital into useless assets that drained liquidity from the industry. While people celebrated Gensler leaving, it actually marked a turning point in the industry, with Bitcoin only marginally going higher before entering a bear market. Now that people celebrate Powell's removal as chair of the Federal Reserve, it makes me think history will repeat itself once again. People celebrate it in the short-term, but as we look back on this era in a few years, I imagine it will mark a major turning point in credibility at the Fed. If the Fed just becomes another cabinet of the executive branch, it may lead to a lack of trust in the institution itself. Perhaps many will look back in a few years and realize that markets were better off with Powell than without him.

NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT THIS When gold topped in 2020, Bitcoin dropped about -21%. Then Bitcoin surged +559% in just 238 days. When Gold topped in January, Bitcoin has also dropped by -33%. Are we seeing the same playbook again?

#BTC Weekly has reclaimed the range high resistance on Weekly Now in the 74.4k-87k range IMO likely to see a test of 87k likely in May

🔥 NOW: Polymarket traders give Bitcoin a 73% chance of hitting $80,000 before the end of April, up 60% from earlier this month.