Could go bankrupt though or be diluted. Who knows. But upside is there.
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D committee
181 posts
$BAK
Monkey math if war continue
- USA & Europe: Run rate EBITDA $0.8b-1.4b
- Mexico: Run rate EBITDA $0.4b-0.8b
- Brazil: Run rate EBITDA $1.2b-2.0b
- Eliminate: -0.3b
EBITDA = ~3.4b
4x EV/EBITDA
EV = 13.6b - 7b debt = 6.6b market cap = $16/share
Debt/EBITDA = 2x
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@2centsMacro Yes, it's specific to their brazil operations
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@DCommittee28163 Didn't they say on the call that 80% of their feedstock is naptha derived?
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$bak basically nothing new. Ample liquidity to 2028 and they have time to wait for things to improve. The margins based on the 65% of their feedstock that is not naptha is going to fly. The naptha margins are wider, but less so. Higher utilization is based on USA naptha supply.
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@fincon350122 So I'd say $10 instead of $7, but it's so leveraged that it's hard to get a firm valuation on equity.
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@fincon350122 Yes, my back of envelope math says they're annual run rate ebitda might be $1.5b-$2.2b for 2026. People just scared by backward looking net debt/ebitda metric
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They confirmed they can get that incremental US naptha supply, but the price advantage of this feedstock for $bak vs Asian competitors is low. So utilization will increase, but they will be cautious about how they do it.
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Minister Anand announces additional sanctions against Iran
Read full text here: canada.ca/en/global-affa…
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@michaeldickson Michael do you stand with IDF soldiers who rape Palestinians up the ass with a baton?
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Condolences to the UAE. Appropriate.
None to Israelis where citizens are being injured and killed by Iran’s missiles.
We see it, PM Carney. We see it.
Mark Carney@MarkJCarney
Canada shares its condolences with the UAE following the latest Iranian attack that took the lives of two civilians in Abu Dhabi. We strongly condemn Iran’s unprovoked attacks on the UAE and across the region, and reiterate the importance of opening secure access through the Strait of Hormuz. Canada supports efforts to safeguard international shipping and ensure freedom of navigation.
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@elikowaz Bro, why are you interfering in Canadian affairs? Dont you have some babies to burn with cigarettes, some Palestinians you need to rape up the ass with a baton, and another pogrom this evening in the west bank?
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Zero condolences to the civilians killed in Israel by indiscriminate rocket fire from Lebanon and Iran.
Not in French. Not in English.
Mark Carney@MarkJCarney
Canada shares its condolences with the UAE following the latest Iranian attack that took the lives of two civilians in Abu Dhabi. We strongly condemn Iran’s unprovoked attacks on the UAE and across the region, and reiterate the importance of opening secure access through the Strait of Hormuz. Canada supports efforts to safeguard international shipping and ensure freedom of navigation.
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@GlobalEdmonton This is guy is from Oakville. Why doesn't he fight for things that hit closer to home, like gay rights? I wonder if he's getting paid in canadian dollars or in dick certificates.
He's always trying to fight other peoples battles, like the right for Israel to commit genocide.
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Jason Kenney is taking up the Canadian cause as he's set to participate in two debates about Alberta separatism, against a lawyer pushing for the province to go its own way.
globalnews.ca/news/11746494/…
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דיווחים אודות מתקפת מתנחלים קשה הלילה בואדי תיאסיר שבצפון הגדה. בתיעוד גבר בן 75 שעפי הסהר האדום אושפז עם פציעות עמוקות לאחר שמתנחלים הכו אותו. באירוע נפצעו עפ״י הסהר האדום שלושה נוספים. בתיעודים מהלילה נשמע ירי חי, שעפי דיווח בוצע ע״י המתנחלים, ללא דיווח על פציעות מירי.
עפ״י גורם בטחוני כח צה״ל הוזעק לאירוע זמן קצר לאחר קבלת הדיווח מהמת״ק אולם לא איתר ממצאים, האירוע מתוחקר.
בשעות לאחר מכן עפ״י ראש מועצת תיאסיר הוקם מאחז בואדי תיאסיר.
זה לא המאחז היחידי שהוקם הלילה - עפ״י דיווח גם בחירבת עינון בין טובאס וטאמון הוקם מאחז בסמוך לנקודה אליה ברחו רק החודש מפוני קהילת ירזא. עפ״י הדיווח התושבים עוזבים עתה בפעם השנייה תוך חודש - נזכיר, קהילת ירזא ברחה מאדמותיה הפרטיות, עליהן יש לתושבים שטר בעלות.
מאחז נוסף הוקם עפ״י דיווח בבית אמרין.
במהלך היום אירעו מתקפות נוספות - הסהר האדום דיווח כי טיפל בשבעה פצועים בכפר ראמין בעקבות מתקפת מתנחלים על רועים פלסטיניים ושניים פונו לקבלת טיפול רפואי .
בדיווח נוסף של הסהר האדום עולה כי פינו פלסטיני אשר נורה ברגלו ע״י מתנחל בחווארה.
כמו כן עפ״י גורם בטחוני רכב שסטה מהכביש בגוש עציון פגע בחמור של רועה צאן ישראלי. הנהג הסגיר עצמו ונחקר ע״י המשטרה.
עברית
@c14israel @netanyahu Channel 14 airs such blatant propaganda slop, it makes me think a large portion of Israelis might actually be retarded. Maybe stick to the hebrew version only.
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Watch: Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu confirms the elimination of the IRGC naval commander responsible for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
@netanyahu describes this as a major strike against the "targets of the Iranian terrorist regime" and highlights the ongoing cooperation with the United States to achieve shared war objectives.
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@JesseBrown Jesse Brown's next article: "how I'm being purged from credible journalism"
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Glenn and I used to be friendly. I once interviewed him on stage in Ottawa, liked him and admired his work on the Snowden story.
To shrug off a wave of bigotry and the widely-felt concerns of a minority, on such a petty basis, is beneath the morals of the guy I thought he was.
Glenn Greenwald@ggreenwald
Jews are being purged from public life, according the Atlantic, run and edited by the former IDF prison guard Jeffrey Goldberg.
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@profplum99 The argument for sticking with USA is that they have military superiority. But this conflict has laid bare that this claim is questionable. Beyond it, defense of Israel comes first, USA is erratic and rash in decisonmaking, and they are bad at diplomacy. China wins on all this
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@profplum99 The US produces most of the oil it needs and Canada fills in gap with heavy oil.
The US and GCC are not well aligned. If they were, US would have never attacked Iran. GCC will turn to it's China for peace and security. Good alignment for stability and security of supply.
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@MarhelmData What is LLS and MAR trading at relative to Brent?
If the wide differential exists for LLS-Bent, the issue is export capacity. If the differential is primarily in WTI-Brent, the issue is excess storage and transport constraints from cushing to Gulf.
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@haravayin_hogh Monarchists are mostly political insiders who amassed fortunes via shah favoritism—like monopolies, bribes, land grabs, and oil kickbacks—before fleeing with assets in the late 1970s. Their love for the shah isn't shared and most monarchists are detested by Iranians writ large.
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I have Iranian friends who support this stuff -their more intellectual rationalisation ("cope") is if Iranians don't show mass support for regime change exists, then there's no incentive for 🇮🇱 to not just smash the country & turn into another Syria. Same as Arab leader logic.
Fay( Fattaneh)@TinaFay1978
از تظاهراتمون دیروز در لس انجلس✌🏻❤️😁 #جاویدشاه
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Marco Rubio when he realizes he's going to have to lead the next pack of kidnapped dogs now that the lead corgi has returned home
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@ezralevant This guy is an outsider, conspiracy theorist except when it comes to Israeli government hasbara. What a fraud.
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It’s practically a certainty this will happen in Canada.
Open Source Intel@Osint613
BREAKING 🔴🔴 An IRGC terror group in the UK, called Ashab al-Yamin takes responsibility for torching 4 ambulances belonging to a Jewish volunteer EMT services in Golders Green, London last night. The terrorists are on the loose. The UK is dealing with a serious problem.
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