Adam Livingston@AdamBLiv
I ran a BRUTAL 3-year MSTR stress test.
Not the cute kind.
The “Bitcoin crashes 55% from here, mNAV collapses below 0.50x, capital markets are closed, cash gets burned, BTC has to be sold to pay the senior stack, and everyone on X is filming their victory lap in the clown mirror” kind.
Starting point:
BTC: $59,135
MSTR: $87.64
Total BTC: 847,363
Cash: $1.4B
CEBE: 138,161 sats/share
Claim ratio: 41.5%
Then the model nukes BTC to $26,611 by month 6.
The senior stack does exactly what fixed-dollar claims do when collateral crashes.
It explodes in BTC terms.
Senior claims go from 351,567 BTC to 819,073 BTC.
Claim ratio spikes from 41.5% to 96.7%.
Common equity BTC collapses from 495,796 BTC to 28,290 BTC.
CEBE gets annihilated:
138,161 sats/share → 7,884 sats/share.
MSTR stock gets modeled from $87.64 to $1.01.
That is the horror movie.
Would the stock price actually go this low in that scenario? I doubt it. 2022 had NEGATIVE -14,000+ of common equity sats exposure and the stock never dropped below $10.
But here is where the bear case gets uncomfortable.
The model assumes:
Zero new BTC buys. Zero common issuance.
$167.7M/month of obligations.
Cash gone by month 9.
BTC sales begin after cash is exhausted.
Over 3 years, MSTR sells 115,727 BTC to keep servicing the stack.
That is real damage.
But it still ends with 731,636 BTC.
Final state:
BTC: $48,498
MSTR: $51.86
mNAV: 1.40x
Common equity BTC: 274,093
CEBE: 76,380 sats/share
Claim ratio: 62.5%
MSTR survives.
The common gets dragged through flaming glass for 18 months, but it survives.
The real risk is not “instant bankruptcy" like all the FUD spreaders are telling you.
The real risk is CEBE compression while fixed-dollar senior claims temporarily consume almost the entire Bitcoin stack in BTC-equivalent terms.
Survival is not comfort.
But death spiral?
This model says no.
