Ginnung Capital

Headwinds from legacy brands, especially Dr. Tobias due to Amazon’s A10 algorithm changes, are being actively addressed and showing early signs of stabilization. Marketing is now more centralized with the new CMO. Irwin execution is tracking well: Amazon revenue hit ~$900k in April (up from nothing in early Oct) with subscriber count surging past 5,700. MusclePharm is also gaining traction, with new SKUs launching into 700–800 Kroger stores nationwide in June. Short-term headwind, but management is executing and the company will emerge stronger with lessons learned and a sharper strategy imo.

What happened to Fitlife $FTLF ?

We probably need a quarter or two showing continued legacy brands stabilization with continued debt paydown. I do think that $FTLF comes out of this stronger with lessons learned and they will have put in place a robust and centralized marketing structure which gives the platform real economies of scale going forward as new brands get added

@DEgilsson Interestingly The market is rewarding the company's strong figures less than I would have expected

$FTLF Q1 2026: Revenue $25.3M +59% YoY. Irwin gross margin 34.0% vs 28.0% in Q4, inventory step-up fully absorbed, 600bps sequential improvement. Irwin Amazon run rate $9.6M annualised at quarter end, $0.9M in April, growing into May. Early signs of stabilisation in legacy brands with monthly consolidated revenue improving sequentially throughout the quarter. MusclePharm launching in several hundred Kroger stores nationwide in June, new wholesale distribution. Current headwinds are real, but are known, identifiable, and being actively addressed. Out-of-stock situations at Irwin cost $1.0-1.5M in Q1 revenue, resolving as supply chain normalises. $2.9M debt paid down in Q1. Net debt $40.6M vs $43.1M at year end. Dayton allocating every dollar of free cash flow to debt reduction as guided. The Irwin acquisition is executing well and nice to see further wholesale channel diversification.

The real estate investments are funded from a €317M net cash position, not from operating cash flow. That distinction matters. Mastrolia is deploying surplus capital into yield-generating owned assets that permanently eliminate lease obligations. Each property purchased reduces future financing cash outflows and increases the quality of reported EBITDA over time. The depreciation of owned assets is real and a valuable asset for a company growing inorganically who needs all the cash they can get.. On your last point, completely agree. EBITDA minus leases would be the honest metric and management should report it. As the owned/leased ratio improves that number gets better every quarter. Trajectory worth tracking for sure.

@ManuInvesting @DEgilsson @aseoane123 Yeah, they might acquire some more strategic assets, but it remains a lease heavy business. Which is not bad, but they should use the relevant metric and it’s not (IFRS) EBITDA. If they want to use that they should report EBITDA minus leases, just like US GAAP businesses.

$NWL.MI One thing I’d like to add on NewPrinces negative EBIT and why I actually prefer it with current combination. €75.7M of D&A in a single quarter, right-of-use depreciation on 1,000+ retail stores and acquisition intangible amortisation. Non-cash. That is every euro shielding operating cash flow from tax. This is the John Malone playbook. Negative reported earnings masking real cash generation. TCI/Liberty was built on exactly this structure, maximise depreciation, shield cash flow, compound the difference. The three metrics that matter most for me with $NWL are EBITDA, FCF, and net cash. Not net income. €71M pre-working-capital operating cash flow in Q1. €317M net cash. 82% stake in a FTSE 250 company worth £930M. €699M market cap. The accounting loss is a compounding asset, not an issue.

It's not irrelevant. it's incomplete without the lease context, which is a fair criticism. But dismissing operating cash flow entirely misses the transition dynamic. As owned properties will replace leased ones, lease payments in financing decline and operating cash quality improves permanently. We're mid-transition.

@DEgilsson @aseoane123 Cash flow from operations is irrelevant as it ignores IFRS16 leases.

Completely agree. The reported metrics don’t make it easy. Pre-working-capital operating cash flow of €71M in Q1 is the number that matters, but you have to dig into the cash flow statement to find it. Management leaning on EBITDA headlines while the net loss dominates the P&L creates confusion. The growth capex of real estate ownership is the answer to the lease problem long term and actually increases the quality of the reported EBITDA number. But yeah I’d like them to communicate that more clearly with actual FCF numbers rather than leaving the market to figure it out.

@DEgilsson fine but then lets report a relevant metric, like free cash flow before growth capex and changes in wc using a debt ratio metric like ebitda to report on the performance of the business is really annoying

@morellifm1 Completely agree, its proactive investments and also the decision on real estate ownership over lease will also be a powerful compounding long term benefit

@DEgilsson Very reassuring results and guidance on Carrefour front. If I didn't miss anything, doesnt seem as though cash-flow drag will be large.

$NWI.MI NewPrinces Q1 2026: €1.5B revenue, €76.5M EBITDA (+21% LFL), €317M net cash, stable despite €27M real estate investment. Princes Retail EBITDA March-April +240% YoY. FY2026 retail EBITDA guided €110-120M, ahead of expectations. Subsidiary, $PRN Princes Group: £506.6M revenue, £38.2M EBITDA (+17%), 89% FCF conversion. Italian segment margin +640bps YoY. Acquisition imminent per management of Princes Group. $NWL

$AXN.TA just demonstrated EdgeRCWS, an AI-powered upgrade solution for Remote Controlled Weapon Systems integrating Aided Target Recognition — at PdD CSW Demonstration Days near Fort Benning, Georgia, alongside US Army warfighters and RCWS manufacturers. Enhanced target detection, precision tracking, and Counter-UAS, without platform replacement.

$KVHI Q1 2026: Revenue +27% YoY, GAAP profitable, LEO now >45% of airtime vs <30% a year ago. 3,100 terminals shipped in the quarter, a record. Previous record was ~1,850. 60-90 day activation lag means a chunk of Q2 service revenue is essentially pre-sold. 9,600 subscriber vessels, 7% QoQ and+30% YoY. IT management gaining traction and getting good initial feedback. Disc: Long

@AbdrazakAlmas @TheBigBerbowski I think their screen TAM is a lot higher than many realize. It's basically letting auditoriums retro-fit legacy screens with motion seating without doing a full IMAX-style overhaul, so it's a complementary PLF format rather than a replacement/either or decision for auditoriums.

@TheBigBerbowski what return do you expect from $DBO.TO ? I think it's fairly valued already and will match index returns for the next 5 years , I might be wrong still researching

Why I like $DBO.TO (and I think twitter will like it too in around 6 months or so): - It doesn't depend on photonics orders into 2029 - It does not need to dilute to get profitable - It does not need to wait to get deals, or rely on backlog - It's not spammed by everyone like $CGEH today, or $AAOI previously. (Twitter always finds a baby which algo loves)

$FTLF is playing a completely different game than $BRBR. FitLife runs 16 brands with real diversification across sports nutrition, wellness, weight loss & more. $BRBR is just 3 brands of which ~86% of sales come from Premier Protein & ~82% from RTD shakes. Heavy concentration risk on protein. FTLF will keep stacking accretive acquisitions, expand channels & build scalability. Protein/whey exposure is far lower (arguably just 7-10% of revenue: MusclePharm ~7% + legacy bits). Input cost volatility hits much softer here. Short-term sector headwinds are real, but the current valuation is compelling for long-term investors imo. High cash conversion, de-leveraging focus & more M&A ahead.

Maybe $ftlf er gonna go shit too considering the protein inflation

$ENH.OL Annual report published, freed up ~$12M annually via debt refinancing + full year SeaBird contribution in 2026 vs 7 months in 2025. CEO flagging substantial distribution increase. 14%+ yield on a business with 52% EBITDA margins, 0,4x leverage and $466M backlog. PTTEP re-award June is the catalyst to watch

Also a reminder that Leonardo DRS, the US Army’s go-to C-UAS prime has Axon Vision as Design Authority on its counter-drone ground vehicle programme. US operational evaluations on American military platforms already scheduled for 2026. $AXN.TA

Israeli national TV just ran a live demonstration of Axon Vision’s AI counter-drone system where it detects and neutralizes FPV drones in under a second. This aired 48 hours after the IDF publicly admitted it has no solution to fiber optic guided drones. $AXN.TA

EDGE ClearSky is Axon Vision’s answer to that detection problem, built specifically for the armored platform environment where the threat is most acute. $axn.ta defence-blog.com/israeli-firm-c…

$AXN.TA Axon Vision just filed successful FPV drone detection operational trial with battle-experienced customer in realistic combat scenarios. + Completed first major EDGE SA Situational Awareness deliveries to a Western European Army which passed rigorous multi-phase quals, first non-Israel Western army deployment. Modular kit-based AI for threat detection, closed-hatch ops & survivability. Leonardo DRS C-UAS framework already generating follow-on activity. Strong 2026 backlog visibility. Still very quiet name with real execution momentum.

Normalized mid-20s% EBITDA at scale looks reasonable imo. Connectivity gross margins 35-40% long-term, LEO already tracking high-30s. Near-term catalyst most are missing is the GEO fixed-cost cliff as legacy bandwidth commitments roll off '26–'27 which already started in Jan '26. CommBox just crossed 1k Edge subs and CEO said in Q4 they’d launch the full vessel-based managed IT solution in the coming weeks. Still early, but the fixed authorized reseller pool clearly matters, no new entrants, and KVH has already expanded their commitment to Starlink 300% to $45M over 18 months on similar margins. Q1 is the first real read on whether the managed IT layer is actually converting. That’s what I’m watching.

@DEgilsson So assumption is that Starlink might limit their margins but they will combat that with bundling services together? Any idea what normalized margin could be?

Is $KVHI as VAR a great business? I do not know, but supply of authorized resellers for Starlink is limited, hence this particular niche could be interesting. Here is a full list: starlink.eulerapp.com