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FROM: Mr. Diego Fernando Alarcón
TO: Mr. Michael Saylor
DATE: March 14, 2026
- Subject: Simple Analysis of MicroStrategy / Strategy Bitcoin Leverage Model. Don't worry, don't be afraid...😉
Dear Mr. Saylor,
The idea you describe is basically a credit-based model backed by a volatile asset, in this case Bitcoin.
° CORE CONCEPT:
If Bitcoin appreciates faster than the cost of capital, the company can leverage debt to acquire more BTC.
° Below, I detail the technical and financial mechanics:
1. HOW THE MODEL REALLY WORKS.
- Step A: The company accumulates BTC on its balance sheet.
- Step B: It issues financial instruments (equity, debt, or products like $STRC).
- Step C: It uses the capital raised to purchase more BTC or fund dividends.
° In essence: BTC → Credit → More BTC → More Credit
2. WHERE THE REAL BACKING LIES.
° The backing is not a stable asset, but consists of:
- Bitcoin holdings on the balance sheet.
- The company’s market capitalization.
- Market confidence.
° Implication:
- The system depends on:
A. BTC price.
B. Continuous access to capital markets.
3. RISK FACTORS.
° The simultaneous occurrence of the following events can generate significant stress:
- Sharp BTC price decline.
- Loss of market confidence.
- Difficulty issuing new capital.
° Impact on instruments like $STRC:
- Does not necessarily imply total loss.
- Yield may become unsustainable.
- Instrument value could decline sharply.
4. MARKET BEHAVIOR.
° Investors in these instruments accept the risk in exchange for:
- Indirect BTC exposure.
- Higher yields than traditional bonds.
- Market liquidity.
° Key points:
- Credit issued against a volatile asset inherits its risk.
- The model works while BTC remains strong or appreciates.
- When cycles change, structural risk emerges quickly.
5. THE FINANCIAL LEVERAGE MACHINE.
If BTC price rises significantly, the company’s value grows faster than its issued debt.
° This allows continuous leverage:
- Issue more shares.
- Issue more debt.
- Buy more BTC.
It is, indeed, a financial engine that transforms debt and market capital into more Bitcoin.
° Backing the model not only with DOLLARS, but also with U.S. TREASURIES and GOLD, would create a more stable structure and smoother growth, but endure over the long term.
(The eternal impact is more valuable than immediate success.)
However, this would reduce the model’s role as an aggressive BTC proxy, which is the current strategic objective.
For this reason, the narrative about BTC used by Mr. Saylor is more important than creating a more stable structure for long-term durability.
- Diego Fernando Alarcón - ®
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