Dave Karle

@DrJillStein You are a moron.

holy shit. if confirmed this changes everything.

@stevesi I'm stumped. Sounds like a place I'd like to try.

@stevesi 5 Point?

Glorious

@Doctrine_Man OMG…the booger. Saw that at Leavenworth. Wow

@Doctrine_Man Laddie.

The sweet smell of success

Now that I'm back in the land of professional storytelling, it's time to stay on top of this social media stuff. I think I'll start with the fun stuff. Took Bill Gang and Nicky Toll, and we went and crushed some steelhead. Fishing with friends in a freezing November downpour is a very good thing.

@Chuck_Ritter92 It might be an interesting stateside experiment to determine if it's even a workable concept. Validating the vulnerability of the propellers at various ranges shouldn't be that hard. There are plenty of cheap used drones out there to do some full scale testing. Feels like there is a potential new tactic here.

@DKVIZ @F530Josh No. But did make an attempt with a mini gun to no avail.

Every time I see a new claim about "the super-weapon that will defeat drones", the drone they're using said super-weapon on is in a static hover. If I had $1,000,000 and a month to solve this problem, I'd spend it on different 12 gauge and 40mm prototypes until we found solvency.

@Chuck_Ritter92 I'm sure you tried this, but bear with me. Did you try a combo of longer range shotguns using 3 in. 12 gauge or 3.5 in. 10 gauge, longer barrels, and full and xx-full chokes, along with longer range hevi-shot? That should stretch engagement to beyond 40 yards. TSS loads can push to 70-90 against turkey. Also, did you encounter FPV kamikaze drones or just observation and/or mortar/grenade dropping ones? Seems like for the former shotguns might be a good weapon of last resort in the hands of the air guard. Thanks in advance. Super interesting stuff.

@F530Josh Yeah, the Brits put some time into the Hawk experiment and it seemed effective. We found most drones too high for shotguns and and impossible to hit with anything else. It’s an extremely tough problem set. Many of the handheld systems can work…..to a degree…sometimes.

Kudos @dogfacesoldier Might be one of the better arguments against over-centralizing essential functions I have ever seen. I have seen this play out time and again in the military, government, business, and tech. The bigger your company or organization gets, the more pressure there is to centralize key functions, be it barracks ownership or something else. Once you remove local oversight and control at the level where people are directly impacted by a lower quality of service, there is often no longer a local solution; or a fast enough feedback loop UP to generate fast and effective fixes. This is a common problem in at-scale organizations.

@sriramk How is overpolarization good?

@Gh0str1dr91 @thenewarea51 Likely ABM test

@thenewarea51 Maybe... twitter.com/WarshipCam/sta…

Airspace about to go hot off the coast of California for a possible missile launch? 2 aviation routes to Hawaii will be effected.

@tterb0331 @IhateTrenches agreed.

Good advice, but use #4 sparingly. Tracers work both ways. Also if somebody from the other side monitors this Twitter account, it’s possible they would inform their front line fighters that if they’re seeing nothing but tracers coming from an individual, there’s a high chance that it is the unit leader and that becomes a priority target.

@thenewarea51 @vcdgf555 Looks like we had a joint sea exercise in the same area. twitter.com/jmsdf_pao_eng/…

@vcdgf555 Exactly, why are they doing down at 11,000’ over the water with “no camera”?

Interesting aircraft around the Sea of Okhotsk this evening. A former Open Skies Tu-214ON down to 11,000’ before returning to the Kamchatka Peninsula while ATOM31 (WC-135R Constant Phoenix) heads out for a possible sampling mission. 🤔

@Doctrine_Man @Army_Leadership Great leaders do not stay with any one style. They may have a dominant style, but it is a keyboard, and the best leaders can play all the keys.

@pmarca @bhorowitz @pmarca and @bhorowitz Where is the upside for Hollywood creatives in the new AI world? As an AI accelerationist, what should screenwriters, directors, and actors get excited about, and how should they prepare for this new world?

Please submit questions for an upcoming podcast by @bhorowitz and me on the topics of Hollywood, AI, the intersection of Hollywood and AI, and the future of entertainment! -- just reply to this tweet.

@NateSilver538 To really get at this you need to understand where the canonical literature leaves off. The biggest issues are around limitations of what human developers control. For example, much of AI development is what is termed unsupervised learning. In many ways an AI platform is somewhat analogous to a child and it grows and learns without guidance. And the parent, the AI developer, really cannot understand what the AI has learned from unsupervised learning activities. One end state is then that the AI developer really does not understand what the AI platform "knows" or "believes." Feel free to DM me.

Books, podcasts, videos, articles all good. Obvious or non-obvious both OK. I think I could generate such a list myself but I'm sure I have a lot of blind spots. The approachability thing is key; I think people with expertise in the field can underestimate the learning curve.

OK, folks. If you were to recommend a few canonical materials on AI existential risk *for a lay audience new to the debate* what would they be? Ideally looking for stuff that sorts through the evidence in a judicious and approachable way. For a newsletter post coming soon.

@sriramk Some of the most successful large tech companies of the last ten years such as Microsoft have figured out how to do this. It is key to going helping the company mature and still grow.

@sriramk There are solutions to evolve the model and make it both more accurate and useful over time. Blue and gold teams making and updating the model, red teaming the model, defining the four ROBs of an at-scale business, and so on. 1/2