DM
1.5K posts
@DM_01210
Buy at low and sell at high, or vice versa
ES_F / SPX Update for May 8 $SPX $SPY #ES_F #Futures #DayTrading We maintain a neutral / bullish bias following the NFP release. 7375–7380 SPX - key resistance, caps upside momentum. Main scenario: Bullish Acceptance above 7380 SPX → opens the path toward 7400 SPX 1/3
The US bond market crisis is intensifying. While everyone is focused on AI and the Iran War, the US bond market is in a complete meltdown. The 30Y Yield is now above 5.00% and the 10Y Yield is nearing the pivotal 4.50% level, which resulted in President Trump's "90-day tariff pause" in April 2025. Long-term yields are now ABOVE levels seen prior to Fed rate cuts in another brutal reminder that the Fed can not contain the long-end of the yield curve. At the current pace, we will likely see US mortgage rates rise back above 7.00% this year. The question then becomes: How much longer can markets (or the US government) ignore the yield crisis? And, who folds first?
даю почекать торговцам ради обратной связи. у меня такой дешборд был в экселе, но решил перенести в облако и посмотреть будет пользоваться ли спросом как продукт. http://188.68.222.166:8501/#moex-arbitrage-dashboard
@GoldmanForts и думать что мы обладаем полнотой информации оценивая вероятность тоже глупо. Поэтому за неспособностью определить реальную вероятность, лучше покупать меньший даунсайд или изменение консенсуса, как в начале года, а не свои рассуждения)
BREAKING: THE THIRTY YEAR EXPERIMENT IS OVER Japan’s 10-year yield just hit 1.85 percent. Highest since the collapse of Lehman Brothers. But here is what no one is telling you: The 30-year yield touched 3.40 percent. The 40-year approaches 3.71 percent. These are levels never charted in modern Japanese monetary history. For three decades, the Bank of Japan suppressed rates to zero, bought half of all government bonds, and became the buyer of only resort. Japanese institutions, starved of domestic yield, poured $1.19 trillion into US Treasuries. They became the marginal buyer holding together the entire Western sovereign debt complex. That era just ended. Prime Minister Takaichi approved a 21.3 trillion yen stimulus last week. The largest since the pandemic. The bond market responded by pushing yields to generational highs. The swap market now prices 62 percent odds of a December rate hike. Nearly 90 percent for January. Japan’s debt stands at 255 percent of GDP. Every 100 basis point rise adds trillions in annual debt service. And yet: with inflation at 3 percent and the 10-year at 1.85 percent, real yields remain negative 1.15 percent. This is not collapse. This is normalization. The world’s largest creditor nation is bringing its capital home. Not in panic. In arithmetic. When 30-year JGBs yield 3.40 percent, Japanese life insurers no longer need US Treasuries to match liabilities. The math has inverted. The doom narrative demands panic. The data demands precision. We are not witnessing the end of the global financial system. We are witnessing the end of free money. After thirty years, capital finally has a cost. Position accordingly. Read the full deep dive article here 👇 open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
💥 The $660.70 Dark Pool level on $SPY has been hit! Keep an eye on this key zone for potential support or resistance.
$AMZN is FLYING right now… 🚀🔥 Over $7,000,000+ in puts have been sold intraday as bullish momentum rips through the tape! 📊💰
