Daniel Parke

I was working on an energy model to explore Solar PV variation over a year☀️ I made a quick animation to visualise the data, it turned out pretty well, so thought I would share it 📊 Model was for three arrays totalling 27.3kWp, mostly East/West facing #SolarPower #energy

Reposting these instructions now that its becoming legal in the UK. Ireland will have to folllow soon. Get installing 👷‍♀️👷‍♂️ ☀️《The only good solar is solar you installed and own yourself》

@NelsAlmhere @niccruzpatane My last paragraph came across badly, I don't know you at all, so who am I to say your worldview is black and white. I can say however your arguments on this are very black and white. In my opinion there always should be a massive "it depends" when discussing energy topics

@NelsAlmhere @niccruzpatane From a network perspective there is no fossil fuel energy, it's just energy. Also not true, batteries absorb economically advantageous energy regardless of source. I would love to live in a world as black and white as you're making it out to be, but unfortunately we do not.

Chinese automaker BAIC just revealed a Sodium-Ion battery prototype with cell energy density exceeding 170 Wh/kg. They say the battery can charge in just 11 minutes, and operate in temperatures ranging from -40°C to 60°C and maintain an energy output level of over 92% at -20°C. LFP is 180-205 Wh/kg. Chinese automakers think Sodium-Ion batteries can become 20-40% cheaper than LFP in the future.

@NelsAlmhere @niccruzpatane And over the lifetime the battery can cycle over 500,000Wh independent of the particular fuel source, meaning all of that energy can be the cheapest around. Also means we won't waste precious fossil fuels by turning them into smoke instead of other useful products.

@niccruzpatane Wow! Only 170wh/kg. Petrol has an energy density of 12,200 Wh/kg and refueling in seconds.

As you point out, gas sets the market prices most of the time, over 95% of the time I believe. Most renewable energy bids into the market at less than or near £0 due to how their marginal cost bidding strategies work. Granted, there is more at play than just wholesale market prices, but renewables have only brought the prices down in the last decade, across most markets, despite how much is curtailed. Let's not forget local generation in people's houses reducing overall demand, which often is a hidden benefit not seen in market stats. There are questions around how it impacts grid security and stability certainly, but the economics are pretty clear, and positive for renewables currently. I agree there is a focus on achieving arbitrary goals rather than solving the underlying problems, but most of those problems as usual come from poor policy decisions and a serious lack of correctly targeted investment from Government. It is good to see you talking about topics like this, and you clearly have done more than a surface level look at the topics. It's a messy subject so fair play to you 👏 Renewables complicate our grid and general economy in a multitude of ways, but not in a way that couldn't be managed to our benefit if we had adults running the show IMO. Unsurprisingly this is somewhere I think private industry is going to lead the way.

Northern Ireland has some of Europe’s highest electricity bills… and here’s why: • We pay more than Britain, the Republic, and a third more than the EU median. • Nearly half our electricity comes from renewables — yet 1/4 of it can’t even be used. • Wind farms are paid subsidies whether they produce electricity or are forced to shut down. • Gas plants stay on for backup, and we all pay for both. • Marginal pricing system: the most expensive generator sets the price — so cheap renewables are still charged at gas prices. • Small, isolated grid with few connections — we feel price spikes instantly. • Politicians push net-zero targets, but you pay the cost, while youth leave and the civil service expands. Energy is the economy. Affordable electricity isn’t a luxury — it’s a necessity. Enough talk, it’s time politicians start representing the people.

@CommonW99 @rhys_jb I agree with this 100%. However what happens when the adults that convinced them they needed uni, didn't equip them with the tools to work this out? I was lucky and left school to work to move out. But I definitely wasn't wise enough to consciously realise I dodged a bullet.

@DanielParke_ @rhys_jb Sure. But you can’t always blame the last generation for your own choices in life. Yes, university was pushed on a lot of people, but it was always still ultimately your decision. I agree it was oversold, but at the end of the day, you’re the one who has to live with that choice.

My first year of uni was completely online due to Covid in 2020 and even in my second year probably half of my lectures/seminars were still online. Everything was literally just someone reading a PowerPoint, word for word, and half the time they genuinely didn’t even know what they were “teaching” us (they told us that themselves). During my second year I reached out to student support and explained I was depressed and struggling with my assignments, and I was told to simply email my tutors (who then didn’t even respond to me). Subsequently, I failed second year and chose to retake it, hoping to have a better experience now that Covid was essentially over, however it was much of the same shite, which eventually lead to me unofficially dropping my classes and getting a job instead. £27,000 (not including the maintenance loan + tax) of debt and I’ve got no degree or even work experience (trust me, I tried) to show for it.

@CommonW99 @rhys_jb This would be a fair critique if we didn't spend 18 years of young people's lives effectively telling them if they didn't go to uni, they wouldn't be a success. The last generation made everything education getting that bit of paper, direct your criticisms there.

@rhys_jb You went to a university, knowing what their faculty is like. The quality of a university’s teaching is pretty easy to find out beforehand. You passed first year, failed to pass second, retook it, then dropped out. Now you’re mad you have to pay for the education you received?

BETRAYAL. VIOLATION. TREACHERY. DECEPTION. Anthropic just ran one of the smartest ad campaigns in modern tech history. OpenAI is preparing in-chat ads for free ChatGPT users, driven by an eye-watering burn rate and shaky revenue projections. Checkmate? 1 of 4) BETRAYAL

@rothpsal @rorysutherland @nntaleb Given the analogy this is not surprising, eating the musicians would make it rather difficult for a repeat viewing. I can however understand how digesting the crappy pop would take several sittings, and therefore allow for repeat viewings.

@rorysutherland @nntaleb Don't know. I can listen to a Wagner opera once, appreciate its reputed genius, then never want to hear it again. Whereas I can listen to crappy pop repeatedly. One requires effort to appreciate, the other none. That must be a factor?

Michelin stars are useful as a blacklist for restaurants: chefs trying to impress other chefs, & insecure newly enriched New York private equity pple or Ukraino-Russians fooled to buy modern art thinking it is art and who believe that decorative modern art can be edible.

@cremieuxrecueil @GuiveAssadi I don't suppose I could be so bold to ask if there is any way of also getting this data, for purposes of professional curiosity? 👀

@GuiveAssadi He is, IIRC. They're good arguments for being against it, because wind and solar increase system-wide costs. Will DM you some data on this.

A German energy trader provided me with his current evaluation of wind energy, and I suspect the details might give away why the Trump administration seems so opposed to wind. What follows are his remarks --- The good: - Easy to launch serially and build competencies - LCOE are probably lowest of any technology beyond 35-40ish degree lattitude if you cannot use hydro instead - Very low emission - Beyond 60ish degrees lattitude solar becomes unfeasible but wind usually even more useful The bad: - Generation is a fully stochastic diffusion process, it's not deterministic unlike solar which comes and goes at predictable intervals - Decay half life is too long for short-term storage (batteries, most pumped hydro) - Decentralization without robustness (decentralized vulnerability to [necessary] steering input, depending on geographical circumstances very fragmented grid topology may ensue - Very low power density, amassing too much wind power in a small area considerably lowers total harvest (see North Sea) - Very high intensity in rare earth minerals - Forecasting of odd phenomenons affecting short-term power production (icing, cut-out triggered by gusts) quite challenging The ugly: - Rather mediocre synergy with nuclear (unlike PV) - High transport requirements due to typical lifetime as well as concrete density; in most cases the concrete needs to remain in the ground - Goals of extracting energy from wind efficiently are at odds with extracting useful energy efficiently (i.e. use turbines that attempt to provide lower costs of load coverage as compared to just maximize production) Using some, even quite a lot of wind power, depending on your entity's (usually country's I guess) requirements can make sense Do I think it ever makes sense to go close to 100% volatile renewables? Rarely. Opportunity costs for flexibility are too large (which include the reduction in full utilization hours of high-capex production assets (Data Centers, manufacturing machinery, etc.) by having typically too expensive load coverage costs to just run them baseload-y in general) --- The volatility plausibly makes the AI revolution much more difficult to finance, hence disdain for wind as an energy source.

@trashh_dev Let's not forget this was the best take that they chose to still publish... I wonder what the others looked like.

he literally showed the ai was useless and chose a different option 😂

@cremieuxrecueil The Solution: Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC)

10 points to whoever identifies the very obvious reason you cannot "supply the waste heat from your cooling system to power homes and businesses nearby." This is your hint:

@JoshuaHiles @nic_carter @ClickingSeason To a degree, but these things can be modelled. Your scepticism is healthy of course, but it should be bidirectional IMO. The risk of doing nothing, if emission models are correct, is far greater than a few years of unexpected turmoil. Turmoil which is likely not a serious risk

@DanielParke_ @nic_carter @ClickingSeason You hope.

my most unpopular opinion is we should accelerate this because it instantly and trivially fixes the "climate problem" with no side effects and totally undermines the degrowth left (who believe the only solution to climate is deindustrialization)

@JoshuaHiles @nic_carter @ClickingSeason True, but it would take time for any effects to be observed, good and bad. The worst case scenario would be a bit like knowing you are on a road that goes off a cliff, except you are only driving 1 mph. You don't want to drop the ball, but plenty of time to course correct.

@nic_carter @ClickingSeason Nothing bad could happen in two years.

@henrydodds Balancing costs are roughly from 2-4% depending on which source you use, with the same again for the capacity market. Nearly all energy spending is across the wholesale markets. So they have contributed somewhat to a cost increase, but nowhere near enough to back the claim.

@henrydodds Amazing! Currently away from my PC but I'm looking forward to reading it this evening when I get back 🙂

@henrydodds if humanity is to progress further than we already are, we cannot ignore phenomenons like this. Very low risk of occurrence, unbelievably high impact if it did occur. It's akin to a large meteor impact, except for being far more likely to happen.

🧵 1/ Some threats wear uniforms. Others arrive in silence. This is a story about one that doesn’t cross borders, but could bring a nation to its knees in minutes. It's time we talk seriously about the threat of space weather.

☀️ Solar PV Potential in Northern Ireland – The Results Are In! ☀️ I'm delighted to announce that a report I contributed to as part of the DfE's 10X call for research has been published. For this research we modelled the potential for Solar PV & Battery energy storage across domestic & commercial buildings in Northern Ireland. Key Highlights from the Research: -🏠 Building Analysis: We conducted full, comprehensive modelling for 1,414,135 buildings in Northern Ireland, covering both domestic and commercial properties with a total rooftop area of 168,646,423 m². -⚡Exceeding Demand: If just 50% of available rooftop area were equipped with Solar PV, we could generate 13,514 GWh annually, which represents 185% of Northern Ireland’s 2023 electricity demand (7,297 GWh). This highlights the ability of Solar PV generation to not just meet but exceed our energy needs on an annual basis! With sufficient energy storage to back this up of course! -💪 Maximizing Local Use: Local consumption rates for Solar PV only, and Solar PV + Battery storage were up to 80% and 96% respectively. This not only significantly reduced energy costs, but reduces interactions and dependency on the wider grid. -🔋 Battery Boost: Adding battery storage increases local consumption rates by an average of 15%, reducing costs and improving site energy resilience. -💰 Economic Benefits: Statistical analysis revealed a strong correlation between higher renewable energy adoption and lower energy costs, proving that going green pays off financially while cutting emissions. Despite this potential, only 3.35% of dwellings currently have solar PV installed, highlighting a massive opportunity for development in this area. The full report can be found at the URL below, and I look forward to see how this research (hopefully) informs policy decisions going forward 📈 Link to report: economy-ni.gov.uk/publications/a…