Daniel Rock

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Daniel Rock

Daniel Rock

@danielrock

Asst. Prof. in OID @Wharton @Penn. Cofounder @workhelix. Everyone can just do stuff and that's {good, bad}. I study the economics of AI.

Philadelphia, PA Katılım Aralık 2008
2.1K Takip Edilen4.5K Takipçiler
Daniel Rock retweetledi
Hiawatha Bray
Hiawatha Bray@HiawathaBray·
Heck yeah. In a sane world, Norman Borlaug would be the most revered scientist of the 20th century. It's possible that Borlaug saved more lives than any other man in history. And yet many people familiar with that bonehead Ehrlich have never heard of Borlaug.
Owen Lewis@is_OwenLewis

🧵 1/14: Just days after Paul Ehrlich (the man whose 1968 book “The Population Bomb” predicted billions would starve) passed away, it’s the perfect moment to celebrate the scientist who proved Ehrlich and other doomsayers spectacularly wrong. Meet Norman Borlaug, the Iowa farm boy who launched the Green Revolution and quite literally saved a billion lives. This is the ultimate story of human ingenuity triumphing over scarcity.

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Daniel Rock
Daniel Rock@danielrock·
@Noahpinion so long as we're not doing the cubic polynomial fit thing again
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Daniel Rock
Daniel Rock@danielrock·
@jasonfurman @MarcGoldwein I remember when oil spiked around then (at the time was an oil futures trader), but I don’t remember it being quite this high. Maybe the price is in today’s dollars?
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Jason Furman
Jason Furman@jasonfurman·
Remember when oil topped $150/barrel in the wake of the 2011 Libya strikes? And stayed above that price for most of the next 2 yrs? OK, you may not remember because you probably weren't thinking about oil in 2026 prices back then. But if you were that's what you would have seen.
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Jonathan Berk
Jonathan Berk@berkie1·
"There is now unambiguous, solid economic evidence, not just abstract economic theory, that rent control would make the affordability problems facing [Massachusetts] worse, not better." - Jon Gruber, Chairman of the Economics Department at MIT
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Xiao Ma
Xiao Ma@infoxiao·
claude: now i see the full picture me: do you? do you???
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Matt Zieger
Matt Zieger@mattzieger·
@avidseries Plausible, but highly unlikely. Best research seems to be saying maybe 3-6% of jobs impacted. Productivity gains will go somewhere (into new tasks, jobs and new business models): Read all about it here: jobsdata.ai
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i/o
i/o@avidseries·
It seems plausible to me that over the next ten years or so, AI may eliminate 10% or more of all middle-class white collar jobs, and that most of the millions of people losing these jobs will not be able to pay their mortgages and will be forced to sell their homes. With millions of homes coming on the market, the price of housing will likely drop. Renters with secure occupations — that is, those likely to be immune from AI shock — will benefit enormously as home ownership becomes more affordable. Does this seem like a plausible scenario?
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Hamsa Bastani
Hamsa Bastani@hamsabastani·
🚨🚨 Excited to share our first *positive* results on AI in education! Most AI tutor work focuses on making the chatbot better. We suggest another lever: deciding what students should practice next to improve learning. We combine an LLM tutor with reinforcement learning to personalize problem sequencing using signals from student-chatbot interactions and solution attempts. We tested this in a 5-month randomized field experiment in a Python course across 10 high schools in Taipei. All students had the same course material and the same AI tutor. The only difference was adaptive vs. fixed problem sequencing. Result: across 770 students, adaptive sequencing improved performance on an in-person final exam taken without AI assistance by 0.15 SD, with larger effects for beginners. Our evidence suggests the gains came from stronger engagement and more productive AI use.
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rishi
rishi@RishiBommasani·
@danielrock @kevinschaul @sj_manning @washingtonpost @ShiraOvide The core point is economists/researchers see change itself as not automatically good or bad. Whereas many people view change as bad (aka disruption), and the status quo as good. And the tech industry views the status quo as bad (aka complacency), and change as good.
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sam manning
sam manning@sj_manning·
Nice write up + data visualization of our recent research on AI exposure and adaptive capacity on the @washingtonpost front page today! A really careful contextualization of findings here with other work on AI automation in the piece. h/t to @ShiraOvide and @kevinschaul
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Clifford Asness
Clifford Asness@CliffordAsness·
Funny I didn’t know “premature” was a synonym of dead wrong about everything all the time. Thanks ⁦@nytimes⁩
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Daniel Rock
Daniel Rock@danielrock·
I think this is right, and because getting AI value is a min(tech, organizational change, data availability, talent, ..., idiosyncratic factors). You can't only invest in one of these pieces. We see this a lot at @workhelix. Successful orgs are taking all parts seriously.
Ethan Mollick@emollick

I am not sure "Forward Deployed AI Engineers" are going to deliver on what a lot of companies are hoping for. They are useful, yes, but AI applications are far less of a technical issue, and much more about rethinking the deep expertise & structure of your organization around AI.

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Jason Kerwin
Jason Kerwin@jt_kerwin·
Ehrlich’s worst impacts were in poor countries—but let’s not ignore all the gullible Westerners who he tricked into not having children, or his lasting and harmful effects on modern political discourse.
M. Nolan Gray 🥑@mnolangray

Normally, I don't speak ill of the dead but: rest in piss. Paul Ehrlich's work wasn't "premature," it was wrong, completely so, and evil: his recommendations resulted in many hundreds of thousands of coerced sterilizations and abortions among the world's most vulnerable people.

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Keşfet

@Noahpinion @jasonfurman @MarcGoldwein @infoxiao @mattzieger @avidseries @kevinschaul @sj_manning