Dchammer

.@Metaplanet announced that they will be raising an impressive ~$765M through a combination of shares, MSWs and regular warrants. This will add ~10K #Bitcoin to their current stash of ~35K. Also impressive. Unfortunately, it's not so great for current shareholders. These transactions will likely depress share price in the medium term, keeping it glued to mNav of 1, if not dipping lower. It makes sense to me to sell now, and buy back once all this issuance is behind us. Here are my reasons: 1⃣ The dilution is a significant ~27%. 9.40% from the new shares, and 9.40% from the warrants, and 8.57% from the MSWs. A total of 314,736,000 shares on top of the existing 1,166,803,340. [1, 2] 2⃣ Traders and shorts will front run this dilution. This will likely cause price to drop even before the shares and warrants are issued on Apr 1. (Great choice of date, btw.) 3⃣ EVO Fund has no chill. A mNav floor of 1.01 simply means they will sell as soon as mNav is over that threshold. With mNav pretty much there already, it will take a while for them to go through their 1M units equivalent to 100M shares. 4⃣ The MSW exercise price floor is 187 yen. That's ~50% lower from here. $3350 has never failed to hit these MSW floors yet. 5⃣ When the fixed-strike warrants are exercised, they will very likely not be accretive, as price would have to be higher than 410 yen at that time, reflecting the Nav of the underlying Bitcoin. 6⃣ Acquiring BTC near an mNav of 1 does shareholders no good. As far as bitcoin-per-share is concerned, it's like the purchases never happened. Recall how we already did this with the international offering last year - yield was a minimal 3% even though a +56% increase in its BTC holdings, as deal terms increase shares outstanding by 51%. [3] I can see similar paltry returns from these transactions. And on a somewhat petty note.. it does annoy me that the same participants who contributed to price tanking during the IO through delta hedging are now getting another sweetheart deal of buying 2-year 410 yen LEAPs (soft callable after 1 year if shares trade at a 40%+ premium) for 4.10 yen only! I understand they are underwater, but so are shareholders. In fact, more so. Any shareholder would likely "bite the arm off" if they were offered a similar deal. The long and short of it is this: 🔴 It looks like price will remain glued to an mNav of 1 for the foreseeable future. 🔴 As long as that is the case, Metaplanet is not providing leveraged exposure to BTC. 🔴 If it is not providing leveraged exposure, there isn't much point in holding it until it does so again. Who knows, maybe we get our deal at a < 187 yen price point too. For reference, closing price on Mar 16, 2026: • $3350: ¥391 • $MTPLF: $2.39 • $MPJPY: $2.34 [1] contents.xj-storage.jp/xcontents/3350… [2] contents.xj-storage.jp/xcontents/3350… [3] x.com/NitherDither/s…

@basedlayer So this is what winning looks like…