Paarslaars

@DelB0yTr0tter Let's see how they do when the panic settles and earnings come in. If your target hits by end of year, I'll get a vive subscription!

Once again SILJ showing the PM world who is boss

@stackhodler Sounds like you are making a case for fiat over sound money... surely that can't be right.

If you're an investor, you need to understand this one simple thing: The world took out $300+ trillion in global debt when interest rates were 0-1% And now it's being forced to refinance at 5%+ interest rates. UBS just gated a €400mn real estate fund. One more fund added to the growing pile of private equity and private credit funds that are telling investors to take a hike. We've been talking about "something breaking" since 2022. There have been mini crises along the way... UK gilt markets, regional banking crises, etc. But each of those was quickly papered over. Now investors are lulled into a sense of complacency, assuming the authorities can prevent pain indefinitely. But you simply cannot just go from 0% interest rates to 5%+ with record debt levels and not face big problems eventually. Think about it in simple terms: When rates are 1%, you can take out a $100M loan and only pay $1M a year in interest. You can invest that $100M into real estate, cash-flowing businesses, and speculative startups. That pushes valuations of everything higher and everyone thinks they're getting rich. Which is exactly what's been happening since 2008. Equity index performance since the money printing began in 2008 has been a complete statistical anomaly. The market sits in the 99th percentile for valuation richness based on 70 years of data. American exceptionalism? Technology boom? Or just the late stages of a massive debt orgy pushing valuations of everything higher? Eventually you need to refinance that $100M loan you took out. But what happens when interest rates are 5% now and refusing to come down? Now it costs $5M a year for the same $100M loan. Your expenses have gone 5x in a short period of time - but has your income done the same? Unlikely. Let's keep it simple and assume your income doubled and you can afford $2M a year in interest. But at 5% rates that means you can only take out a $40M loan. So now you're on the hook for the $60 million you borrowed. Maybe you can sell some of the assets you bought with the original $100M? But who's buying? Everyone is in the same boat! The price you bought at only made sense in a 0% interest rate world. The bottom line is people can't afford nearly as much debt when interest rates go up, so the debt-fueled increase in asset prices MUST come to an end. These are the simple mechanics of fiat money and debt. This is why it's a risk to take out debt when you hit 0% interest after 40 straight years of falling rates. Eventually the trend reverses one way or another. And you are at the mercy of whatever policy response the central planners decide to enact. They can choose: Great Depression II (debt collapse) or Currency crisis (print the fiat into oblivion to prevent the debt collapse) If you have a massive supply disruption of critical raw materials, perhaps you get both. Usually, the drastic policy response doesn't come before a true crisis. Which means we should expect asset prices to eventually adjust violently to the new reality as everyone starts to realize what's going on. In that environment, cash is the best asset to hold. "But cash is trash!" everyone screams near the generational top... Ask the silent generation who lived through the 1930s what they thought about cash. Cash is only trash when it can be printed at will, but occasionally there are constraints on printing cash. And in a debt spiral, it's actually the scarcest thing. Cash is like oxygen. Usually you have plenty. But sometimes, like when you're underwater and your lungs are screaming for air, you'd trade absolutely anything to get some. Occasionally it's very rational to be bullish on cash. If an asset you like is going down 50%, then your cash is going up 100% priced in that asset. Your purchasing power doubles. But only if you see cash as an asset at the right moment. Allowing yourself to be occasionally bullish on cash is what separates doomers from winners. If you know there's going to be a shortage of oil, it's easy to be bullish on oil. And if you think there's going to be a shortage of cash, then you can be bullish on cash. Simple. Interest rates rising in an environment with record debt levels usually means there's going to be a shortage of cash at some point. And people will have to sell whatever they can to get cash to service their debts. It's simple arithmetic. Yes, usually the central planners step in when things get too painful. Because printing money is better than doing nothing in their minds. But will they print if there's an oil supply shock sending the cost of everything skyward? Will they break their inflation mandate just to save the fiat ponzi? That would be a tacit admission that the whole system is a big fugazi that only survives with money printing. Which puts the credibility of sovereign debt and fiat currencies at risk, and thus jeopardizes the very power of the central planners themselves. As an investor you need to be aware of what's going on and what could happen between now and a potential policy response. The "gates" at UBS, Ares, and Apollo are simply the first signs that the fire has started but the exit door is WAY too small for the crowd. And you never want to be the last one out the door.

@decodejar In the past when macro started expanding, BTC was rising ahead of this while macro contracting was shrinking (blue part). Now we are in full expansion and still BTC is not rallying. Either the model is broken or Iran war is holding the balloon under water.

Macro expansion = Crypto expansion

@dannycheng2022 @captaink99 This is noise, hold miners instead of metals.

@captaink99 Thats why I never chase these metals. They are for the adventurers.

$GLD and $SLV (March 26, 2026-weekly charts)

@AdamBLiv @grok can you summarize the video?

🔥MSTR VS. METAPLANET VS. ASST - WHICH ONE OUTPERFORMS BITCOIN THE MOST?!?🔥 I am GIGA-BULLISH on three Bitcoin treasury companies. I use the CEBE Framework and the Jan. 2028 Bitcoin Power Law price to project out which Bitcoin treasury outperforms Bitcoin and the competition. MSTR VS METAPLANET VS ASST - DRAGON ENERGY RESULTS FROM ALL THREE COMPANIES... BUT ONE OUTPERFORMS THE REST BASED ON THE CURRENT BALANCE SHEET MAKEUP:

@HermesLux Your public education system is depressing in general... :)

It's depressing to think how long this will take to happen in the US.

@btc_overflow ATM will happen... like saylor is not going to stop doing that.

People aren't prepared for a bitcoin bull run when $MSTR is uncapped by convertible bonds. They take mNAV decline for granted. But prior MSTR peaks ended with a large CB issue and opportunistic shorting alongside CB hedges. What happens when MSTR rips with no CB in sight?

@BraisMichael @HermesLux Yeah but prefs take ages. Also if not acctretive, the additional prefereds do not increase btc/share.

@HermesLux Take a look at replies from Simon and Dylan. This is about improving the balance sheet for prefs. always love to hear your thoughts as well Hermes. Thanks

Why Metaplanet is down

@RoaringRagnar The raises were not really accretive. Getting 100k BTC is not valuable, they need to increase BTC/share. Management has not done this for a while now...

It‘s incredible how many people are shitting on Metaplanet right now. Look, I get it, we‘re down >80% from the ATH. The Japanese market is a bit shaky in general, macro wise. It‘s not clear yet that Metaplanet‘s prefs will be approved, and if so, when. Also, the market and their ¥637 MSW program has backed them into a corner for the past 6 months or so. People are giving up left and right, showing signs of PTSD. In fact, the current sentiment feels very bottom-ish. Max pain, capitulation. If prefs are not approved, that would be a huge blow, of course. But it wouldn‘t be the end. Management has demonstrated a willingness to use any tool at their disposal to raise more capital and increase Bitcoin per share. Remember that 1 year ago, Metaplanet held ~3,200 BTC. Today, they hold 35,102 BTC. 10x in 12 months. Soon, it will be >40,000 BTC, and until the end of the year their goal is to reach 100,000 BTC. I believe they have a good chance to achieve this goal. They also have the chance to completely own the Japanese market. Become Japan‘s Strategy, and even beyond, as they will become a key player of the Japanese Bitcoin ecosystem. Once Bitcoin is at 200K, all this negative sentiment will be long forgotten. Bookmark it.

@DrProfitCrypto Well the question you could ask is, why not close the short when opening the long position at 68k and then re-open the short after selling the long position? My guess is your long position was materially smaller than the longer term short position?

#Bitcoin: The crowd’s average IQ on this platform is shockingly low. I bought at 68k for a quick gain and made it crystal clear that my short from 125k remains fully open. Those are two completely different positions. Anyone with a functioning brain should understand that. Second: I never said I longed at 68k. I said I bought spot using available stablecoins to secure some percentage gains. That is not the same as opening a leveraged long. The fact that this needs to be explained shows exactly the level of understanding we are dealing with. Yesterday I posted about the Great Financial Crisis starting. That is a long-term macro view. It has absolutely nothing to do with short-term price action or a temporary spot position taken at 60k–68k. Yet people immediately panic and scream: “But yesterday you said you longed at 68k.” No. You simply cannot read. It was never a long, it was spot accumulation for a short-term move, and I explained this very clearly. I also said that after this short-term bullish trap / relief rally, the bear market continues. If that basic market structure already overwhelms you, trading is probably not the field you should be in. We are within a strong bear market for Bitcoin but for the short term there is a lot of upside potential and potential to reach even 88k. I will not sit out on this opportunity and grabbing a spot position while the big short position from 125k remains fully open and untouched.

@Micro2Macr0 Which is still an excellent price for junior silver miners. :)

Remember when metals were cool? Because $Silver is basically the same price it was 3 months ago.

@Micro2Macr0 Best case indeed, Iran is now threatening to attack neighboring oil facilities. Don't think we have seen the end of this story yet...

👍

@intocryptoverse Only if these prices are sustained for a longer time period

Most business cycles of the past have ended shortly after the price of oil spiked. Rising geopolitical conflict threatens to cause that once again. If oil starts moving higher, it usually marks the beginning of the end of the business cycle.

@DylanLeClair @tenb1 "Exactly as stated"? That is a false statement as you stated you would not issue shares below 3x mNAV Dylan. In reality you continued to do this down to 1.3mNAV? (the large IO was basically almost 1mNAV). I still believe in the strategy but let's be honest here.

Simon had the courage to make Metaplanet the first publicly listed company in Japan to adopt a Bitcoin treasury strategy. Since that decision, Metaplanet has been the single best-performing stock in the entire Japanese market. The company published a white paper in May 2024 laying out exactly what it would do: raise capital via equity and debt to accumulate more bitcoin per share for shareholders. Every action since has followed that roadmap. If a shareholder buys into a company with a clearly stated strategy, watches it execute exactly as stated, and still finds something to complain about every week, that’s worth reflecting on.

雰囲気がもう宗○🤭 なんか記念撮影っぽいのやってるねw だからメタプラ信者のホーム画面サイモン氏とのツーショットの人結構おるんか🤮 ※ちなみに私今年入ってからの株主なので参加権利ありません。 #メタプラネット　#メタプラ #BTC 　#仮想通貨　#ビットコイン

Bill Ackman literally gave a 44-minute masterclass that explains money better than any business school:

@ZynxBTC DDC + 33%

Bitcoin is currently up +7.80% today. Let's see something. $MSTR +11.22% $MTPLF +7.82% $ASST +14.59% $TSWCF +13.54% $ALCPB +16.89% Apparently the Bitcoin Treasuries are dead and we will never see significant mNAV expansion again... They are wrong. >3 mNAVs are coming back.

@Dchammerr @DylanLeClair Well likely they expect MSTR or ASST to outperform Metaplanet since Metaplanet has no way to accrue much BTC right now without preferreds in place. Strive was much quicker on this one...

@DylanLeClair @Groenschoen I mean even Capital Group is trimming…they should know more than the rest.

Metaplanet is the #1 performer out of 4,000+ publicly listed companies in Japan since adopting BTC in April of 2024. So yes, #winning.

@DylanLeClair Fully agree there, but you have to understand this is the painful period for most of your shareholders. We all have strong conviction this will be worth it in the long run but big drawdowns can still hurt like a mf. Ignore the hate and focus on execution, I want to see MARS! 😁

@Groenschoen Just pointing out the facts, not bragging. People playing gotcha to judge the business results based on a snapshot while our game plan has been consistent and unwavering for 24 months straight.

@ZynxBTC This is taking FOREVER. They have been talking about that product for a year now...

It's only a matter of time before Metaplanet's MARS product joins Strategy's STRC in funnelling hundreds of millions of dollars a week into the Bitcoin network. Both will give Bitcoin a perpetual bid, pushing it much higher. I think about this a lot. $MTPLF will roar again.