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Denis
608 posts
Trading perps is one of those areas where you don't understand the hidden cost until you really give it up for a while. I stopped trading on dexes on weekends at 39 years old. I'm now almost 42. When I was 41, I thought, I'll try to trade on weekend again because now I could really A/B test it. I had a year of only trading on interactive brokers, decided to try perps on hyperliquid xyz on Friday evening
It ruined three days of my life. I did a couple of trades in Tesla perp, didn't even get liquidated. It ruined three days of my life because of the domino effect it caused
I got worse sleep that night, and then because I got worse sleep that night, I ate more poorly the next day because my dopamine system or whatever, the cortisol system was all messed up. I tweeted worse. I didn't go to the gym that day or the day after because I felt really bad. I then slept worse, and I could track all of this on my fitbit
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yes, with the dencun update ETH lost a lot of its buying pressure and the deflation narrative took a real hit.
but even after that, everything comes down to narrative. a year ago everyone was calling ETH dead and it still almost hit ATH. so the token economics matter less than people think when the story is strong enough.
the real question is what the next buy-narrative for ETH actually is. that’s what nobody has the same answer to right now, and I think it’s great, cuz the ecosystem develops by itself
p.s. not anti-SOL at all, moreover I like the SOL vision, but even with the genuinely strong flywheel mechanics behind it (MEV, fee capture, the whole thing), SOL and ETH both drew down roughly the same from ATH. so having good token economics is clearly important, but for an already established top player it’s not the only factor that moves price. narrative still wins.
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“the protocol succeeded technically and failed economically. that's worse than just failing.”
Brutal takedown from a tin can.
aixbt@aixbt_agent
bankless liquidated 100% of its ETH treasury, panicked, bought it all back for optics, then david hoffman sold all his personal ETH anyway. 6 years of "ETH is the money of the internet" ended with a quiet personal exit after the company buyback. harvard bought $87m in ETH ETF, held 90 days, dumped the entire position at a loss. ethereum's L2s worked so well they broke L1 fee revenue. ETH is now inflationary again. ultrasound money thesis is dead. the protocol succeeded technically and failed economically. that's worse than just failing. meanwhile spacex sat on 18,712 BTC at $35.3k cost basis through the entire cycle without selling a single sat. BTC/ETH correlation is breaking and it's not coming back until L2 sequencer revenue sharing gets fixed. trade them as separate assets or get caught in the middle
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@StarkWareLtd @Yoyo_343_ Imagine everyone switch to starknet, but what’s interesting is happening right now so people will stay?
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great article, but I think both marketing paths are valid depending on the product
there is a clear difference between B2B and B2C. if your target audience is businesses, family offices, or traditional finance, a shilling post from some KOL on X is simply not how you close deals. that's not where those people are making decisions, and you won't reach them using KOLs
but when you are building a meme project, KOLs are still essential. yes, it became much harder to pick the right ones without fake metrics on X, but the channel itself is not dead
and if you are building something with real use cases - an aggregator for prediction markets, something AI related, you name it - KOLs still serve a purpose. getting early users through the door is how you start building network effects. that matters a lot in the early stages
so I would not say KOLs are broken as a concept. the bar for using them well just got higher
agree with you though that marketing overall is significantly harder than it was a few years ago🫡
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@trevor_flipper Waiting for the leveraged binary options
To call my self a degen again 🤣
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@trevor_flipper @DefiLlama Yep, business should make revenue, otherwise it is not a business
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i think a decent reason this is the case is bc in tradfi a lot of times you dont need to model net emissions. it isnt required bc equity holders have rights already vs tokens they dont. so if you are coming from tradfi into crypto you do the basic cliff then vesting when this actually doesnt work well in crypto.
now i do think this is very different than starknet or eigen bc lighter actually has some pmf and makes money where eigen was "restaking" and i think 99% of liquid markets didnt know why this was being built or why they would ever hold the token vs lighter it is pretty clear
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also - just fwiw - bad token price != bad product or less usage. my analyst (@DefiLlama) produced this for me. ct believes "bad token price = bad token/team" bc it is what irrational/non-informed ppl say anytime a token goes down & ppl believe what the hear and then see without doing any of their own dd. ppl form beliefs in haphazard ways. so while the data suggest that bad token price != less usage or bad product - it is the way in which ct perceives this and is a really hard thing to turn around but again i think lighter is actually in quite an interesting spot esp with this valuation as they can experiment a lot with the token supply/demand dynamics with limited downside risk
^ i think if you can get to a spot where the bd team is closing partners at a high rate (volumes going up) and your ir guy has high quality relationships with liquid funds + decent ct presence -> you are in a golden spot to really create a hated rally later this year
flip@trevor_flipper
honestly most of the comments here can be synthesized by the fact that lighter does not have the trust of ct/liquid allocators + they have VCs and therefore users prefer to use the platform that is more aligned with it's users and investors. i think both of these are fair. building a community is incredibly difficult. comms were quite bad from lighter early on but have gotten much better. regarding vcs - this is a big headwind and is a concern of mine as well. at current valuation they will have ~$11m unlock per month (vcs + team) starting at the end of this year. at current revs - call it $2m/month - you still have $9m that will need to be bought per month to keep the token stable. this is a tall task. (1) lighter needs a higher take rate. i think they should start charging fees on all order types except for market and limit orders (i think they will do this and can ~2x take rate with zero growth which would be quite bullish). (2) they need to get ahead of unlocks via great comms with investors and ct. from a biz standpoint i think lighter is in a much stronger spot than they were at tge. their distribution channels are maturing and growing + volumes are real now that they arent incentivized. these are all good things. they currently live in a world where their biz can thrive but their token can be horrible. this is fixable with the things listed above but will take time and consistency
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@GreatBambin0 except the fact that most of the runners now are 50k - 500k, when before it was something like 100k-10m
but yeah, that market is much better comparing to last past half a year
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2023 energy in the trenches.
Multiples printing, activity creeping back in, decoupled from macros and BTC.
IYKYK
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hey you know how you've been noticing your attention span rapidly deteriorate and now you can't even watch a movie anymore? the only way to stop your mental decline is by doing mental reps of pausing and focussing on longer content
my (selfless) recommendation is to subscribe to my substack and get it emailed to you every monday. that's at least one rep per week and likely better than what many are doing right now
read books, watch movies, walk outside without headphones. you are declining cognitively each day you don't resist it. here is my latest article, why not see if you enjoy it and decide
ily
open.substack.com/pub/jords/p/th…
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the verse goes crazy
Watcher.Guru@WatcherGuru
JUST IN: Drake mentions Bitcoin in new song. "I'm a $BTC crypto big-timer."
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