@chinamaniac I agree with most of this, but it is nice to have a decent chunk of cash lying around, or at least in crypto. It can be a huge hassle to withdraw large amounts of cash from a bank and they are only open 50-60 hours a week.
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bafoon13
844 posts
bafoon13
@DfsSchoder
Retired from quant trading (TMG ’13-’21 energy futures). P2P gambling. Chess and poker fan. Love/hate relationship w Kelly criterion. DK bafoon13 MAYC 9149
Chicago Katılım Nisan 2021
555 Takip Edilen646 Takipçiler
One of the biggest mistakes successful gamblers make is the handling of cash
-Storing large amounts of cash in safety deposit boxes will not outrun inflation
-Stop being a pussy and walk into the bank and hand them cash and when they ask what you do you tell them you are a professional gambler
-You pay taxes and get the money into investment vehicles
-You can now invest and buy stuff and you will sleep better at night
-Other option is to convert your gambling cash to checks if you won it gambling in a casino. It is your money , you don't always have to take cash.
While gambling is still frowned upon the amount of sports books , casinos and poker rooms are vastly widespread across the country.
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Tony is good for MM content and Survivor content.
Tony Farmer@Tonysmarkettips
What if I told you that Sleeper wasn't the only platform that Matt Miller used for his charity fantasy leagues? New video coming out in a few hours and you don't want to miss it. Tell a friend.
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@PlusEVAnalytics This was my assumption as well. I believe one of the first markets they went into was FL which protects the Seminoles very aggressively. Seemed to me like they wanted to lose their ability to have PM on sports in FL and have that precedent set for other states to follow.
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Reading this thread makes me wonder if "DK Predictions" was executed terribly on purpose as a false flag with the goal of getting all prediction markets banned.
Justin Balthrop, PhD@PhdDfs
(1/n) The @DrafKings “predictions” market is much worse than I thought. I just moved to Nebraska where there is no Sportsbook online but apparently the securities lawyers will battle over this supposed “prediction” market structure. I gave it a little try for a lark.
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@FischerKing64 It’s also the halfway point of the Appalachian Trail
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Harpers Ferry changed hands about a dozen times during the American Civil War before it ultimately broke free from the vicious tyranny of Richmond and joined the free state of West Virginia.
Jokes aside it's a cool place to visit.
Delroy@DelroyZx
Harper’s Ferry, West Virginia 🇺🇸
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With $20 Million on the line, peace of mind is everything.
That’s why our proxy clients each receive a screenshot of their submitted entries before Circa’s deadline.
Does your proxy service do that?
$95/entry - change picks unlimited times - OT loss protection - NO TIPS.
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@PlusEVAnalytics @capjack2000 The small tick sizes just let HFT's win over traditional MM's or relative value traders. They find big and/or smart orders and quote small size in front and soak up most of the fills without taking much risk. Eventually this leads to MMs not quoting and is v bad for ecosystem.
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Why isn't there 0.01 cent tick size in all markets? Other than to create a structural advantage for MMs by limiting how tight the bid/ask spread can be?
Max@__Max__S__
44 million bid wall for France on Kalshi. 0.5 cent ticks must be added for high volume things like WC MLs. The price has already moved and MM are sitting on 58 cents on the other side collecting an absurd 2c spread. With 0.5 cent ticks: -Price gets corrected quicker -People can actually put limit orders in
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@johnarnold Love those guys selling pesos for dollars in the alleys “Cambio! Cambio! Necessito cambio!” Had same experience in 2012 where rate was 5 to 1 but we got 8 to 1 through them
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I was last in Argentina in 2014. The official exchange rate then was roughly 8 Peso : $1 but if you had cash you could get 14 : 1 on the street. I did a double take when I saw the exchange rate today is 1487 Peso : $1.
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Free open market price is 35-1
Restricted market price in markets where only a couple exchanges can book sports gambling due to regulatory arbitrage price is 17-1
Guys the reason all these losers are defending this is because they are the professionals profiting from the scam
Bayes Baller@Bayes_Baller
@mattkalish That’s the free market price bc you can easily take the other side of that bet if you want and that is the market clearing price between yes/no
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@SquirrelSigma Yeah, I’m not saying it’s some insane arb that someone should take. But it’s crazy that they wouldn’t use the same internal pricing methods to determine the value of things. It’s almost like their PM is just copying Kalshi, adding in their insane vig, and then posting the market
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@DfsSchoder It's a .2% arb before fees, and they're only taking $3 on that promo future, so whatever. The whole thing is dumb.
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So, DK won't take bets on +3300, posts the same market on DK Predicts for +1900, and posts No more than a dollar worse than Kalshi. But DK is better. Got it.
Matt Kalish@mattkalish
How the fuck is it a “free market price” when 175 million Americans are betting at 35-1 readily avail in market, and many multiples of the liquidity are put behind it at that price by sportsbooks? Faceless, nameless market maker losers are limiting liquidity avail to fleece recs
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@Doc_Tornota @RufusPeabody There’s a lot of people who don’t have a pulse who are still limited. Get CLV accidentally a few times and you can no longer donate to DK
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@RufusPeabody Especially while limiting anyone with a pulse to $3.17 on 35/1
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Arguing that a free market price is less fair than one not directly determined by supply and demand is hilarious.
Matt Kalish@mattkalish
Haha the losers market making on Kalshi saying u should just lay the $95 on Team USA NO to win $5 gfy. Half the US have no choice but to take 50% of a fair payout from these losers in a scam exchange deal. Stay mad you pussies - offer a real price on USA instead of scamming.
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@mattkalish Even squares are limited to like a $100 for US to win on DK. Even Circa only lets you bet $100 on app per clip.
What you’re actually arguing for without realizing it is for more MMs, not less. Demand overwhelmed supply which US TW 20/1. More MMs would bring price down.
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For the slow and braindead market makers. The established market is 35-1 for team USA. Half the country are getting 35-1 market payouts. The other half the country are getting scammed for 50% by guys like Rishi and Wall Street MMs taking advantage of no sportsbook competition.
Rishi@Rishibets
@mattkalish I did not shape the market. I see the market at 95c so I take some 95c and offer some at 94.9c. Why should anyone list make orders at 97c when the market is established at 95
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@capjack2000 As long as we agree on defining overlay, terms, and escrow I’ll put up 20k to you 100k.
Questioning why it’s capped it’s telling on yourself.
Is 7.5% rake not reasonable? Don’t you charge like $1k/month for a product with >90% margin?
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@DfsSchoder Want to wager whether this goes off at an overlay? If you think it doesn't, I'll give you 5-to-1.😉
Why not have it uncapped though? Why not have it on Poly instead of the much more restricted Splash? Why attach $1.7m in vig? It's poor gambling no matter whose money.
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Sorry, but a nationwide Survivor contest with the advertising scope of Polymarket and Splash should have a guarantee of $100m.
$21m is laughable. That just ensures it’ll reach the full 22,700 entries and have a 7.5% vig.
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@Flupnolide @CJSullivan_ Look at his bio, he's a comedian. I think it's a bit
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It's unfortunate to see gambling Twitter being paid to push this. 150 max entries at $1k per, is not a contest. It's a rigged game, and very disingenuous to convince people otherwise.
TJ Ross@tjross
Today we're launching the largest guaranteed NFL Survivor contest in history, with @Polymarket: $21,000,000 up for grabs. Why try something this crazy? Well, it all started 32 years ago, when I was 6 years old, helping my dad make his Survivor picks...
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If this hits max entries, your $1,000 entry has a $925 effective value.
That $75 delta is less than you're paying for a Vegas proxy.
Of course if it doesn't hit 21,000 entrants, there's an overlay.
The current $2M World Cup pool only has 19,223 entrants, making each $100 entry worth $104.
Something to keep an eye on.
Polymarket Sports@PolymarketSport
Polymarket & @splashsports are launching the biggest survivor contest in history with $21,000,000 guaranteed. Make your picks each week & the last person standing wins the biggest prize this format has ever seen. Skip the flight to Vegas and play from you couch all season long.
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@LastMenPod They aren’t part of survivor sweat tho, that still puts circa on top. No marketplace for that one
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And this is just the beginning of the Survivor Bull market.
TJ Ross@tjross
Today we're launching the largest guaranteed NFL Survivor contest in history, with @Polymarket: $21,000,000 up for grabs. Why try something this crazy? Well, it all started 32 years ago, when I was 6 years old, helping my dad make his Survivor picks...
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@tjross @Polymarket This is fucking incredible! Congrats TJ and everybody at Splash. Love that the NFL survivor space keeps pushing forward. Can't wait to register for this tournament from the comfort of my own home.
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Today we're launching the largest guaranteed NFL Survivor contest in history, with @Polymarket: $21,000,000 up for grabs.
Why try something this crazy?
Well, it all started 32 years ago, when I was 6 years old, helping my dad make his Survivor picks...
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