@PersimmonTI I mean if it worked in one person given the thoroughness of the data, it will likely work in a substantial portion of people - so we will know in about a year- and market will have to 10x valuation given size of diabetes
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$SANA
it’s good to see yesteryear’s purely preclinical hype-cycle IPOs finally showing something in clinic (even if not what was initially promised).
And these islet cell transplant data are interesting.
Big question: durability, reproducibility and can it be a “drug”.
A small speculative position for me.
Samuel Hume@DrSamuelBHume
Exciting data from Sana Biotech: long-term performance of transplanted islet cells (which make insulin) for type 1 diabetes - without any immunosuppression. - Islets were edited to avoid immune detection (HLA depletion to avoid T cells and CD47 overexpression to avoid macrophages and NK cells). - These were transplanted into forearm muscle(!) - good blood supply, easy to monitor, easy to access if something goes wrong. - Tested in one patient, the cells produced durable, meal-responsive insulin for at least a year (measured by C-peptide). - A low, proof-of-concept dose was used - the patient did not achieve insulin-independence, but HBA1C came down a bit, as did glucose levels. - There's no data on hypoglycaemia/hypoglycaemia awareness yet. - These islets came from donors, so the next step is a scalable trial using the same tech - at higher doses - with stem cell-derived islets.
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@Andre_AGTC @riskadjoptimist $ghrs is the winner here - will eventually be used in every indication related to depression - $15bn peak sales
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@riskadjoptimist $HELP is in MDD market, laeget market. Look for $DFTX (6.2B MC) as a reference.
$CMPS is in TRD, smaller but more focused population
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My pricec targets for the bios of interest
$PVLA 2.1B MC Target 8B (280% upside) based on 3.3B peak sales and 2.5 multiple
$COGT 6.6B MC Target 13B (100% upside) based on 5.2B peak sales and 2.5 multiple. Jefferies has 15B target
$CMPS 1.8B MC Target 5B (180% upside) based on 3.5B peak sales and 1.4 multiple (limited IP)
$BLTE 6B MC Target 12.5B (110% upside) based on 5B peak rev and 2.5 multiple
Andre-ACGT@Andre_AGTC
Plan for next week to use some of the $CRNX cash. If market cooperates may add to: $PVLA MC 2.1B x.com/Andre_AGTC/sta… $CMPS MC 1.8B x.com/Andre_AGTC/sta… $BLTE MC 6B x.com/Andre_AGTC/sta… $COGT 6.6B x.com/Andre_AGTC/sta…
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@Andre_AGTC $beam will have AA for basically all its pipeline, within a couple years - peak sales probably $12bn - 2.5 multiple = 7X in 2 years
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Palantir claims its tech is winning the war in Ukraine, so why is $PLTR stock cratering? Down -38% from ATH. Because CEO Alex Karp is terrified. His latest rant on AI pricing completely exposes the legacy software trap. Here’s my thesis.
1. Karp says if software makes you $1B, the vendor deserves a 30% cut. Really? Then why doesn't Microsoft tax every dollar made on Excel? Flat fees are infrastructure. Tech doesn't get a silent tax on your alpha.
2. He calls pay-per-token models a "wealth tax." Total lie. Token pricing is utility pricing—like an electric bill, you only pay for what you use.
3. You know what a real wealth tax looks like? Palantir trapping enterprises in multi-million dollar contracts upfront before proving a single dollar of ROI.
Karp isn't mad that tokens "don't add value." He’s panicked because pay-as-you-go AI lets businesses start small, scale fast, and completely bypass predatory enterprise traps.
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@ChefGruel There is more to the story...he's a small grower, this is not a typical situation...doesn't have anything to do with the system or there would be lots of these cases
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This is what happens when the food supply chain becomes too top heavy. This grower can have beautiful, ripe fruit and consumers are still paying premium prices at the grocery store. This is because the farmer has to sell into a system of limited packers, distributors, and retailers that has become massively consolidated. It’s just like beef and chicken. We need a market for the small guys; government can reduce those barriers and investment will come.
Wall Street Apes@WallStreetApes
Nectarine farmer in California is giving away his entire 125,000 lbs of ripe nectarines to the public for free He says Big Agriculture in California has made it impossible for him to harvest and sell his nectarines You can go pick for free from June 29–July 3, at 21500 E. Parlier, Reedley, California. 7am-10am What’s happening is a handful of large marketers and packers dominate, they are squeezing independent growers Direct-to-retail attempts often get countered aggressively. The big companies severely undercut farmers like this to drive them out of business
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The standard gym model might be incomplete for longevity.
In the Copenhagen City Heart Study, the activities associated with the largest gains in life expectancy were:
- Tennis: +9.7 years
- Badminton: +6.2 years
- Soccer: +4.7 years
- Cycling: +3.7 years
- Swimming: +3.4 years
- Jogging: +3.2 years
- Calisthenics: +3.1 years
- Health club activities (i.e. gym): +1.5 years
People who play tennis probably have higher socioeconomic status, but the researchers controlled for this, in addition to education, smoking, alcohol, diabetes, and weekly exercise volume.
An additional explanation could be that sports like tennis and soccer combine exercise with social interaction and incorporate more of the brain in coordination, quick decision-making, and reaction speed.
Full video about the best exercises for longevity: youtu.be/QA_smK1lBEU
Study: DOI:10.1016/j.mayocp.2018.06.025
YouTube
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@MattyKirsh @RobertLKruse Underestimating the effect AI will have on solving manufacturing difficulties
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@RobertLKruse Yup - There's very much a world where the 'best' approaches from an efficacy perspective are the IPSC-derived cell transplants, but that there is a cost/scalability gap to deploying those in the early days where other options (donor-derived cell tx) do very well
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The T1D therapeutics space is one of the more interesting in biopharma right now.
-- The science seems to be delivering truly game-changing, disease-altering (dare I say curative?) solutions that are both in the clinic or soon-to-be in the clinic. The standard-of-care for T1D will look completely different in 5-10 years IMO.
-- The market is obviously huge (2 million US patients, ~10 million globally)
-- There are a number of competing approaches that all seem promising from off-the-shelf IPSC-derived cell therapy islet cell transplants ($SANA $IPSC $LCTX) to donor-based islet cell transplants ($ELDN) to polyclonal antibodies from engineered cows that reset the immune system ($SABS) to Treg-based immune reprogramming ($NKTR).
It's a massive market going through what should be huge changes in SoC with multiple different players and approaches, any/all of which could be a winner
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@Williamthawhale That will take several years to reach ...short term maybe can double
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Uniqure $QURE is conservatively a $24B company.
Why? Treating just 3% of symptomatic Huntington’s patients in the US/UK (1,500/yr) at a standard $2M gene-therapy price tag yields $3B in annual revenue.
Now, apply a fair 8x biotech multiple = $24B market cap (~$380/share). The current $3B mcap is a steal. BLA submission is the trigger.
Note: Doesn't count the nearly 130k+ pre-symptomatic gene carriers.
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@LynAldenContact Market got it exactly wrong - he said fed should respond to new data- going to get lower inflation data in next 3 months and he will cut
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The new Fed chairman’s first press conference was rather hawkish.
He came off as articulate and prepared, but tightly-phrased on most things (ie not giving a whole lot away) which is a style he previously foreshadowed.
Bit of a hit to rate-sensitive assets, which makes sense.
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@Geiger_Capital Wrong...in a year world will be much less dependent on strait...US oil LT much stronger and if Iran tries to get nukes in the future world will be able to go all in to take them out. Oil prices will drop significantly by Sept, fed cut rates and Trump get a larger defense budget
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If the reported text of the MOU is correct…
Iran won.
They leveraged the Strait of Hormuz, and won.
While we destroyed much of their industrial base and military assets, they now get their assets unfrozen, all sanctions lifted, and can sell oil. They are getting the funds to immediately rebuild. All "nuclear-related issues", the entire reason we did this, is to be addressed and finalized in a later agreement.
This simply returns everything to Feb 27th, the day before we started this whole thing.
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@GaryMarcus But AI still useful so companies that use it effectively will grow profits
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Hot take on what comes next, after the sudden decline of tokenmaxxing:
- OpenAI will struggle
- with the decline of tokenmaxxing Anthropic will struggle (aside from this quarter) to make a profit
- Google will catch up to Anthropic
- some Chinese companies might, too
- LLMs will become commodities; margins will be very very thin
- Most of the companies that invested massively in them will struggle to make back their investments
- SpaceX’s AI efforts will flail
- Nvidia will eventually decline, once all of the above becomes widely recognized.
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@JohnLeFevre Eating almonds probably prevents more cancer than AI will cure...as for golf courses contribute a lot of real happiness to people but should be limited to places where appropriate
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California almond farmers use 1.5 trillion gallons of water per year - 8x more than all US data centers combined.
And golf courses use 500 billion gallons of water.
This isn’t environmentalism; it’s propaganda.
Are green fairways and almond exports more important than space exploration and cancer research?
John LeFevre@JohnLeFevre
5 gallons of water = → $132 from data centers → 2¢ from almonds One powers AI, auto safety, space exploration, medical research, banking, and innovation. The other is a mostly exported (75%) snack from drought-prone California fields. Resource allocation in one chart.
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Delta greatly helped save Kyiv in 2022. It integrated all sensors (drones, hwy cameras, stationary cameras) and intelligence (from spotters, to app driven cellphone reports of enemy activity) into one common operating picture accessible across echelons. mwi.westpoint.edu/urban-warfare-…
Colby Badhwar@ColbyBadhwar
🇺🇦🇺🇸 Secretary of the Army Driscoll: "Ukraine's Delta common operating system, their modular open system architecture, C2 system is absolutely incredible. It fully integrates every single drone, sensor, and shooting platform into just one single network. Ours does not." Wow, if only Ukraine was offering the United States some sort of deal that would facilitate the sharing of this technology.
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@JP_Invests @growthrapidly I know the difference...a 25 p/s is same as a 50 p/e. Palantir guides conservative - they guided 60 % for q1 turned out 85%. On earnings call Karp said he's aiming for 100% growth in 27...
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The framework is right. The assumptions aren't.
P/E and P/S aren't the same. Revenue × multiple is the P/S calculation, not P/E. And using 50x sales in 3 years assumes zero multiple compression — unusual for a maturing growth name.
70% growth for 3 straight years is heroic, not base case. PLTR's own 2026 guide is already 71% — a deceleration from 85%. Software at this scale typically decelerates 10-20 points per year. Realistic 3-year revenue lands closer to $20-25bn, not $30bn.
And a double in 3 years isn't "very good" when you account for the risk. It's ~26% CAGR — but only if growth holds, the multiple holds, AI sentiment holds, and every contract renews.
When every variable has to break right for an OK return, that's not asymmetric. That's symmetric — or asymmetric to the downside.
I'd rather own setups that pay me even when I'm partially wrong.
$PLTR
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@JP_Invests @growthrapidly If they grow at 70% for next 3 years revenue is $30bn and p/e of 50 puts it at 750bn market cap...so a double in 3 years. Very good return !
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Respectfully — $PLTR is many things. A discount AI stock isn't one of them.
PE of 217. Forward PE of 87. EV/EBITDA of 156. Trading at ~60x sales.
"Discount" requires a multiple below peers or below the company's own history. PLTR trades at multiples that price in five years of perfect execution upfront.
The numbers that matter:
- Benchmark analyst: stock needs 70-80% annual growth "for the foreseeable future" just to justify current price
- Full-year 2026 guide implies 71% growth — already a deceleration from the 85% just printed
- Q1 was a blowout and the stock still fell. That's the market telling you the multiple is still compressing
This isn't bearish on the business. It's bearish on the price. There's a difference.
Great AI companies are everywhere right now. Cheap AI companies are rare. Calling $PLTR cheap doesn't make it cheap — it just makes the bag heavier when the multiple finishes mean-reverting.
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@bjmtweets It's not confusing ... they are high growth low fcf... vs AI which is high growth high fcf... so if yields drop Celsius will outperform
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@Drug_Researcher Well it relieves pain without being a sedative. So u feel better without being "high" not that surprising
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Acetaminophen is a strange drug. In my field of behavioral pharmacology, giving acetaminophen in double blind research to healthy people causes them to take more risky decisions and lowers their perceptions of risk. We don’t know why it does this, and most people who take it are completely unaware that it affects how they make decisions.
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@mathlonning Pretty much...why did they allow estimates to be so high when they knew they had the trials ? Dead money for the rest of the year
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