Don Aviv

#IdeologicalViolence is up in a huge way. Join the discussion next week. We will also cover #SocialMediaThreats, #DigitalViolence, #OpenSourceInvestigations & #ThreatMonitoring lnkd.in/dEjqTxVV

Russian drone strikes destroy Ukraine maternity hospital full of newborns: 'This was pure terror' trib.al/J4lZJbD

When I travel outside of Ukraine, I get daily intelligence updates online. This morning, I was briefed that U.S. military facilities in the Middle East and the Gulf region were photographed by Russian satellites in the interests of Iran. On March 24th, they imaged the U.S.–UK joint military facility on Diego Garcia located in the Chagos Archipelago in the Indian Ocean. They also captured pictures of Kuwait International Airport and parts of the infrastructure of the Greater Burgan oil field. On March 25th, they took pictures of the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. The Shaybah oil and gas field in Saudi Arabia, İncirlik Air Base in Türkiye, and Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar were all imaged on March 26th. There are no Ukrainian facilities on this list. But who is helping whom when sanctions are lifted from an aggressor that earns daily revenue and provides intelligence for strikes against American, Middle Eastern, UK, and U.S.–UK bases and so on? When surveillance is carried out over facilities in Ukraine, we always understand that they must be protected, since plans are in motion to destroy them – energy and water infrastructure, military facilities, and so on. Everyone knows that repeated reconnaissance indicates preparations for strikes. How can sanctions be eased if this is what the Russians are doing? There must be pressure on the aggressor. And lifting sanctions is certainly not pressure. It looks strange. Sanctions are being lifted, while the aggressor is providing intelligence to strike facilities, including those of the countries that are discussing or have already lifted sanctions. From my conversation with journalists (3/3).

European allies say Russia is helping Iran more than the U.S. has publicly acknowledged, sources say. cbsn.ws/4116Eek

Chocolate caper!!

Most geopolitical risk doesn’t begin with missiles. It begins with miscalculation. This week’s analysis, led by me and senior adviser Sam Worby, focuses on a rapidly evolving situation in the #Middle_East and what it signals for businesses operating globally. Key developments: → Strait of #Hormuz pressure is shifting leverage Iran’s restriction of trade through the Strait continues to serve as a strategic advantage, impacting global energy flows and testing U.S. and allied response capabilities. → #Diplomacy vs. #delay tactics Conflicting signals between the U.S. and Iran raise a critical question: is diplomacy real, or a mechanism to buy time for military positioning and market stabilization? → Internal Iranian dynamics matter Figures like Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf are emerging as potential power centers, blending military, political, and economic influence inside the regime. → Regional posture is hardening Israel’s continued military positioning in Lebanon, alongside Lebanon’s political distancing from Iran, reflects an increasingly fragmented and volatile regional landscape. Beyond the Middle East: → Political pressure is mounting in Europe, with judicial reform setbacks in Italy → Governments are responding to global instability through energy releases and policy shifts (Japan) → Recruitment into foreign conflicts and exploitation risks remain a growing concern (Kenya/Russia) → Expanding national security laws continue to raise questions around privacy and civil liberties (Hong Kong) Small #disruptions are no longer staying small. They are compounding, across supply chains, energy markets, regulatory environments, and physical #security risks. At @InterforInt International LLC, we work with clients to interpret these signals early, and translate them into actionable #risk management strategies.

One of the @FBI 's most prolific insider trading informants is joining us April 23. Tom Hardin (“@iamtipperx”) sits down with Interfor Academy head @Selllikeaspy Jeremy Hurewitz to discuss what his experience reveals about risk, ethics, and decision-making. Shortly after the 2008 financial crisis, Hardin was swept up in a historic #investigation. What followed reshaped his life and his understanding of how risk actually unfolds. Today, he advises Fortune 500 companies, boards, and leadership teams on behavioral risk and corporate compliance. We’ll cover: → Inside one of Wall Street’s largest insider trading #investigations → What it’s like to work directly with federal #investigators → How behavioral risk shows up inside organizations → Practical lessons for improving communication and decision-making → What compliance teams should be thinking about in the age of AI This is not theoretical. It’s a real-world look at how #risk unfolds and how organizations can better prepare for it. April 23 12:00 PM ET Live via Zoom Join us live by clicking here: us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regist…

Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest - March 24, 2026 Middle East → On Saturday evening, President Trump @realDonaldTrump threatened to destroy Iranian electricity and power infrastructure if it did not open the Strait of #Hormuz within 48 hours. This threat caused immediate concern among the Gulf States, who warned Trump that Iranian retaliation on their infrastructure would be devastating → On Tuesday, Israeli Minister of Defense @IsraelKatz announced that the I.D.F. will hold its positions south of the Litani River in Lebanon until the threat from Hezbollah is neutralized. International Affairs → On Monday, Italian Prime Minister @GiorgiaMeloni acknowledged defeat in a national referendum on judicial reform. Meloni’s judicial reform agenda sought to restructure the judiciary and redefine the relationship between judges and prosecutors, but faced strong criticism from opponents that her policies would concentrate too much power in the government’s hands. interforinternational.com/interfor-inter… #security #geopolitics #iran #middleeast #intelligence #threats

Between shifting dynamics in the Middle East and ongoing strain across @TSA and #airport systems, the travel environment has become far less predictable, and far more fragile. Right now, travel is operating with less margin for error than people realize. We’re seeing it in real time: 𖧹 #Flight routes changing due to airspace #risk 𖧹 Inconsistent screening protocols across #airports 𖧹 Delays that cascade across entire #travel days 𖧹 Limited visibility into what’s actually happening behind the scenes If you’re responsible for moving your team, or your clients, this isn’t just inconvenience. It’s exposure. A few adjustments worth making: → Add time, tight schedules are where problems start. → Pressure test your route, know your backup before you need it. → Avoid over-reliance on a single connection or hub. → Consider driving or taking the train when possible. → Keep essentials with you, assume checked bags won’t keep up. → Don’t rely solely on airline updates. Travel right now requires the same mindset as any other #risk environment. If you’re on the road this week, plan accordingly. @InterforInt

"In 2026, #reputation is no longer a communications asset. It is geopolitical currency." @EmmSargsyan @odwyerpr monkeylink.co/fa3634

A timely perspective on the growing pressure faced by #Gulf nations amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. In their piece for the @jakpost the Jakarta Post , @DonAviv and Sam Worby explore how the region is navigating an increasingly uncertain landscape shaped by the competing interests of the U.S., Israel, and Iran, where even neutrality comes with consequences. It also highlights a deeper dilemma where every path forward carries trade-offs. Staying cautious might strain key partnerships, while taking a firmer stance could expose the region to greater instability. In moments like this, #strategy becomes less about choosing the best option and more about managing unavoidable #risks. thejakartapost.com/opinion/2026/0…

UPDATE: Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport will shift to a highly restricted operating mode starting Monday due to ongoing Iranian missile attacks. Outbound flights will be capped at 50 passengers per plane (down from ~150), while inbound flights can continue at normal capacity. Flight activity will also be sharply reduced, with just one takeoff and one landing per hour permitted.

Planned Flyovers: Three F-18 aircrafts will fly @ 2,500 ft over the Hudson River at 11AM on 3/23. Multilingual & ASL Link: on.nyc.gov/1kdjT4y

Who did this?

In recent days, an op-ed my colleague Sam Worby and I wrote for Project Syndicate @ProSyn on Gulf strategy amid rising #Iran tensions has gained international traction, most notably being picked up by Finanz und Wirtschaft @FuW_News , one of Switzerland’s leading financial publications. That kind of distribution is a confirmation. Not just how far it travels, but why it matters. Because this isn’t only a regional story. Decisions made in the #Gulf are shaping global markets, capital flows, and risk calculations far beyond the Middle East. I’m grateful to the editors at Finanz und Wirtschaft for bringing this discussion to such an important audience.

This week’s global #security developments include the killing of a senior Iranian official, U.S. strikes near Iran’s primary oil export hub, and new fractures among Western allies. Each week, the team at Interfor International tracks key geopolitical and security developments shaping the global risk environment. This week’s highlights: 𖧹 Israeli strikes killed @alilarijani_ir , a senior Iranian power broker and former head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, potentially further concentrating power within the I.R.G.C. 𖧹 The U.S. conducted strikes on military targets on #Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil-export hub, while deploying additional naval assets to protect shipping near the Strait of Hormuz. 𖧹 Calls for allied naval patrols in the Strait of #Hormuz have exposed divisions among Western allies, with several E.U. countries declining immediate participation. 𖧹 The Israeli Defense Forces expanded targeted ground operations in southern Lebanon, advancing toward the Litani River amid resistance from Hezbollah fighters. 𖧹 Globally, tensions also rose following a deadly airstrike in Kabul, political debate in Europe over Russia policy, and new security deployments in South Africa. At Interfor, we continue to monitor developments that may impact global security, business operations, and geopolitical risk. Follow @InterforInt International for weekly updates on global #security and #geopolitical risk.

We started with simple kamikaze sea drones. Then we built drones with turrets that can shoot down helicopters. Now we have drones that can shoot down Russian fighter jets from the sea. We have developed boats that carry other drones. We also have boats that strike targets on land from the sea. And we are developing more stable drones that can operate longer and more effectively at sea. Soon – and not in the distant future – we will have systems that can operate even in ocean conditions. We are also actively working on underwater systems. So, facing threats in the Black Sea, we are finding the right security solutions. These solutions can be used in your matters as well – including in complex situations like the Strait of Hormuz today. Drones can solve problems that even a fleet sometimes cannot. From my address to the Parliament of the United Kingdom (6/7)

Sean, thanks to you, we know what a true friend of Ukraine is. You have stood with Ukraine since the first day of the full-scale war. This is still true today. And we know that you will continue to stand with our country and our people.

For months, Gulf states invested heavily in diplomacy to prevent a direct confrontation between the United States, #Israel, and #Iran. That effort has now collapsed. And the region is paying the price. Iran’s strikes on infrastructure and U.S. bases across the #Gulf appear designed not only to disrupt energy markets, but also to damage the Gulf’s reputation for safety and stability, a core pillar of its economic influence. The Gulf Cooperation Council now faces a difficult set of choices: 𖧹 Escalate and risk widening the war 𖧹 Push diplomacy and risk alienating Washington 𖧹 Or exercise strategic patience while the conflict unfolds For now, patience is the most likely path. But Gulf leaders are watching closely. If Washington cannot articulate a clear regional strategy, Gulf states will eventually begin asserting their own vision of how this war should end. To read the full article, click here: @ProSyn @DonAviv project-syndicate.org/commentary/gul…

NEW | Special Report: The war in Iran is currently in a phase in which the military trajectory is relatively positive: the United States is steadily destroying Iran’s ability to use its most essential tool in the war — drone and missile attacks — which in turn underpin the entire Iranian strategy. Iran has still done some damage to US forces, and it is still firing drones and missiles, though the overall attack rate is slowly decreasing. These attacks still pale in comparison to the major attacks Iran sought to conduct in an existential war and have caused neither operationally significant damage nor widespread casualties. The US-Israeli combined force will need time to achieve its military objectives and prevent Iran from inflicting further political and economic pain upon the United States and its allies in the region, but the campaign remains incomplete, and it is too soon to forecast its outcome. Declaring it an operational failure is unquestionably premature.

The brother of the Michigan synagogue assailant was a Hezbollah commander killed in a strike last week, Israeli military says. cnn.it/4bGdOuB