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Doug Catsby
1.6K posts
Doug Catsby
@DougCatsby
I don’t drink coffee but I like coffee-cans
Wall Street, Diagon Alley Katılım Kasım 2022
786 Takip Edilen337 Takipçiler
@invest091 How does that guide your selling. Obviously is key risk materialize that’s a sell but what about the KPI misses. How many is strike out
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Before I buy any new stock, I write down 3 things:
✅A clear 2-4 sentence investment thesis
✅2 KPIs I’ll track every quarter/year
✅1 key risk that could break the thesis
This keeps decisions disciplined and makes future sells way easier.
🎙️ Clip from Episode 24 of Stock Spotlight 👇
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Just got out of a Microsoft Cowork session.
Yes it’s clunky and in general generations behind OpenAI and Anthropic solutions.
But the thing is, Microsoft AI is AI for the mass, for the non engineers.
In the end the mass is what matters.
Long $MSFT despite the headwind they face in their OS and office suite.
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@SixSigmaCapital But it's not the revenue growth, it's the anticipation of growth that keeps $TSLA investors intrigued!
They say a great growth company has fallen when they become cheap on a valuation basis.
Well, the greatest growth company has fallen when thye actually start to grow!
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$TSLA revenues have grown like 3% in the last 3 years
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@tickerplus If the deal falls apart, what can $GOOGL do to harm $RDDT? Decrease their prime real estate in their pagerank algo?
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Google $GOOG needs Reddit’s data.
Reddit still needs Google’s distribution.
Our proprietary usage data suggests Google currently has the stronger hand in the $RDDT negotiation.
Full note: blog.tickertrends.io/p/google-has-t…
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So the street was loud and clear, cut capex and we will reward your stock. But $GOOGL went nope, we will continue to hike.
Why did they do this if ROI on CAPEX was negative, or even unproven?
It's clear the board and management are allocating for the future.
Stop doubting the future, try it.
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@griffonomics Also, people should be very grateful to you that you hand them this info all in a condensed hour or so vs. having to dig through all kinds of documents and spend dozens of hours.
Thank you!
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Not adding on $BMI earnings but I probably would if I didn't have these.
@griffonomics I'm sick of answering the same questions for people over and over who are too lazy to do any DD, so post your Badger Meter episode from a few months back.
If they're too lazy to listen to it for the answers, then they shouldn't buy the stock no matter what.
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@DurableCreators I’ll let you know when the market pumps or dumps.
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Does anyone know if/when $GOOG reports earnings?
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@twoeraserheads @KrisPatel99 Then the first step is to lose the phone you have that you are using to post this message.
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@KrisPatel99 YES PLEASE 🥺🥺🥺
I feel the same
I was thinking about this after watching Odyssey
Life was better without AI
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I want to go back to a world without AI…
Anyone else?
Claude@claudeai
New in Claude Cowork: teach Claude a skill. Record your screen while you do a task, talk through it as you go, and Claude turns it into a skill it can run again. Find it under Record a skill in the + menu of the Claude desktop app. Available on Pro, Max, and Team plans.
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@RealJimChanos There are always those that are stuck in the past, with their old ways. Early day computers were slower than the top mathematicians.
And you totally avoided my questions on the other regards.
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Axon Says AI Police Reports Save Time. Public Records Show They Get Facts Wrong (My God, AI-generated police reports are a dream scenario for defense attorneys!) $AXON forbes.com/sites/thomasbr…
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I do think there are risks. I just believe with my full heart that this adoption will not be stopped. The benefits will far outweigh the risks.
You are probably one of the most financially literate individual. Do you not use AI at all in your finance research? Do you think you and your team would be better off without AI? Do you spend 0 dollars on AI?
Back to $AXON, do you believe police departments are better off without $AXON AI solutions?
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@DougCatsby You might want to review what “beyond a shadow of doubt” means in a criminal trial. $AXON
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Same can be said about software engineering, AI adding code that needs to be reviewed.
Can be said about protein design in biochemestry.
Can be said about financial research, where ai hallucinates and need to be double checked.
Yet no one is doubting that AI is having transformational value for each of these sectors.
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@DougCatsby The point is that the software is not only not saving time for the officers, but the justice system is incurring a brand new legal risk.
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Doug Catsby retweetledi
One pattern I find useful for working with LLMs is a nice long ramble session. Sometimes the LLM needs more bits to understand what you're trying to achieve, but you're too lazy to type them. In these cases I like to lean back, switch to /voice and just ramble for like 10 minutes, total mess, anything goes, full stream of consciousness. Sometimes I declare it up top, something like "switching to speech recognition sorry for any typos...". Sometimes I turn it into a small interview of a few turns. But I find that the LLMs are somehow very good at reconstructing long incoherent rambles and often their echo of your own tangle of thoughts comes out quite a bit cleaner than what you started with. The result is that you improve the mind meld and have to correct things less from that point on.
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This is the way. I’ve been thinking that model companies need to pivot for a long time.
They are the new SaaS
Wall St Engine@wallstengine
OpenAI is launching Presence, an enterprise platform for deploying AI agents across customer support, sales, billing, insurance claims and internal IT. The software connects agents to company data and workflows while adding testing, guardrails, human approvals and monitoring. Presence will initially be available to select customers, moving OpenAI further beyond model access into enterprise software.
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$ORCL at 120 feels like a similar set up to $UNH at 240 last yr
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Doug Catsby retweetledi
On Friday, 90mins prior to the open I was asked why I am buying AI stocks when they were ugly.
My answer: " If I am wrong I will be okay with my decision because this is what my judgement tells me... If I don't execute I will regret it more over time"
glad for rebound tho!
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Biggest takeaway is perhaps to never chase (in size). You will get a good entry, no matter how vertical you think a stock will go.
YeahDave@Yeah_Dave
Some incredible opportunities to add to positions or start new ones. Went hard the last few days. New ATH share counts in $NBIS $ASTS $RKLB. On the small/mid cap high beta side I added/started: (drawdown, my entry/add) $ONDS (-60%, $6.70 - brutal dilution over) $LPTH (-50%, $10.30 - very fortunate opportunity) $TE (-55%, $5.80 - got my sub $6 adds) $VOYG (-55%, $25 - lots brewing under the surface) $QS (-70%, $5.80 - it's almost time) $CCXI (-35%, $14.10 - had to wait for the washout) $JOBY (-65%, $7.30 - FAA clearance soon + military) $LAZR (-35%, $63 - no more excuses, I'm in) $FCEL (-55%, $17.20 - fan of the $BE thesis) $AAOI (-60%, $98 - way overdone) $SHAZ (-40%, $61 - AI data sovereignty) $BRUN (-45%, $23 - out of the limelight) $PL (-60%, $22 - quality revenue, $GOOG space TPUs) $BKSY (-60%, $21 - AI edge compute sat imaging) $VELO (-70%, $10.60 - decentralized manufacturing) $UMAC (-55%, $17 - domestic drones EO) Also added: $LITE (-40%, $680 - retail free photonics) $GLW (-45%, $154 - glass/silica for data center/solar) $IBIT/$BTC (-55%, $36 - dead and forgotten) Now I sit back and watch the magic happen.
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@Yeah_Dave Epic bottom ticks. Surprised no AI hardware or memory names.
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Some incredible opportunities to add to positions or start new ones. Went hard the last few days.
New ATH share counts in $NBIS $ASTS $RKLB.
On the small/mid cap high beta side I added/started:
(drawdown, my entry/add)
$ONDS (-60%, $6.70 - brutal dilution over)
$LPTH (-50%, $10.30 - very fortunate opportunity)
$TE (-55%, $5.80 - got my sub $6 adds)
$VOYG (-55%, $25 - lots brewing under the surface)
$QS (-70%, $5.80 - it's almost time)
$CCXI (-35%, $14.10 - had to wait for the washout)
$JOBY (-65%, $7.30 - FAA clearance soon + military)
$LAZR (-35%, $63 - no more excuses, I'm in)
$FCEL (-55%, $17.20 - fan of the $BE thesis)
$AAOI (-60%, $98 - way overdone)
$SHAZ (-40%, $61 - AI data sovereignty)
$BRUN (-45%, $23 - out of the limelight)
$PL (-60%, $22 - quality revenue, $GOOG space TPUs)
$BKSY (-60%, $21 - AI edge compute sat imaging)
$VELO (-70%, $10.60 - decentralized manufacturing)
$UMAC (-55%, $17 - domestic drones EO)
Also added:
$LITE (-40%, $680 - retail free photonics)
$GLW (-45%, $154 - glass/silica for data center/solar)
$IBIT/$BTC (-55%, $36 - dead and forgotten)
Now I sit back and watch the magic happen.
YeahDave@Yeah_Dave
No reversal catalyst, mountains of what-ifs. I'll get banged up entering the melee. It'll be messy. Keeping my head & selling in May/June means I can take risk-defined shots at names down 50-60%, even if they drop more. Edge isn't mystical powers. It's discipline against noise.
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