@marcus_bra83109 @justind56710121 @ElectionMapsUK Could you please follow me back for a message (about lcoal election predictions) please?
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Dr Evan Harris
35.8K posts
Dr Evan Harris
@DrEvanHarris
I campaign for evidence-based policy, free speech, human rights, equality, Lib Dems (GTTO) and much else - more recently for victims of press/tabloid abuse.
Oxford, London Katılım Kasım 2009
2.5K Takip Edilen29.3K Takipçiler
@justind56710121 @ElectionMapsUK Bury is interesting because a lot of the Tories on the council have formed a ‘Together for Bury’ political group, and they‘re standing candidates here and next month. Thursday may be a good litmus test on how popular they are. Dk on Bury, agree on other 3 though
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4 Council By-Elections are taking place this week:
🌳 Tottington (Bury)
🔶 Wigmore (Luton)
🙋 Fremington (North Devon)
🌹 Hareholme & Waterfoot (Rossendale)
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Dr Evan Harris retweetledi
RIP to the great Dutch Grandmaster Jan Timman. He was the leader of the new Western generation after Fischer. Unlike many, he was a serious analyst and researcher who loved every aspect of the game, including compositions. He was at his powerful peak through the 1980s to 1993, when he lost matches to his peer Karpov and Nigel Short of the new generation. We dueled many times, including his victory in my "heaviest" game ever, where our moves were mirrored by machines moving huge shipping containers as pieces in Rotterdam! We also argued many times, as he also cared deeply about the future of our beloved game. He was my first opponent after I became world champion in 1985, pictured here in Hilversum, NED, before game 5 of our match on Dec 20, I believe.
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Dr Evan Harris retweetledi
Well Plaid, Caerphilly! Congratulations on keeping Reform out of the Senedd.
It's clear that tactical voting played a huge part in this election and we're proud to have led the effort here through our initial recommendation and subsequent awareness campaign. Our advice reached many times the margin of voters that defeated Reform, and shows the power we have when we work together for hope and change against hate and division.
Our focus now shifts back to the smaller council by-elections that happen every week and of course the local elections next May where the fight against Reform will be a big one.
Thank you again for lending your vote to stop Reform, a frustrating necessity under a broken voting system.
- The team at StopReformUK.vote
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It's what Jesus would have wanted
National Secular Society@NatSecSoc
A High Court judge has described religious selection in faith schools as "indirectly discriminatory in relation to race" after a boy was denied a place at his local C of E school because his family attend the Eritrean Orthodox Church. secularism.org.uk/news/2025/09/j…
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@ElectionMapsUK Hi, Do you read your direct messages at all?
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At the moment the calculation is all being done through one overworked and very complicated Google Sheet which can only process about 15 requests per minute.
I imagine today it will be overwhelmed quite a lot but *should* be fine in future.
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🚨 | Now Live!
🧮 Predict the next election with our new custom Nowcast tool.
🗣️ Let me know what you think!
electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
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Dr Evan Harris retweetledi
The World Aids Conference in South Africa announces trials for a new HIV vaccine will begin in Britain.
Liberal Democrat MP @DrEvanHarris will be one of 18 healthy volunteers who will take part in the first toxicity tests, today in 2000
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@ProjectDarkMode @ElectionMapsUK Its a multi-member ward. The seat up was not the one from the previous by-election
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@ElectionMapsUK This was the previous result it wasn’t a gain from Labour it was a Reform hold surely 🤷♂️, make it make sense!!
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Throston (Hartlepool) Council By-Election Result:
➡️ RFM: 48.7% (-9.6)
🌹 LAB: 38.8% (+7.0)
🌍 GRN: 5.1% (New)
🌳 CON: 4.8% (-5.1)
🔶 LDM: 2.6% (New)
Reform GAIN from Labour*
Changes w/ 2025 By-Election.
*Multi-Member ward.
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Dr Evan Harris retweetledi
After Jenny Evans was brutally attacked by a high-profile figure, all the details appeared in the press. Her mission to find out what happened led to a change of career and helped uncover the phone hacking scandal. By me
theguardian.com/society/2025/j…
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Dr Evan Harris retweetledi
Right, so I was asked to take a look at this headline and as you can imagine, there is a lot wrong with it! 🙄
This was initially published in @thetimes and then picked up by the usual GB News, DM, Telegraph etc
Let’s take a look….👀
🧵
1/26
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@BylineTimes I will cancel my subscription only if you STOP holding all those in power to account, fearlessly, as you currently do.
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'Keir Starmer Is Out of His Depth and Out of His Time' #Echobox=1750929603" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">bylinetimes.com/2025/06/26/kei…
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In which a man who resigned in a huff seeks to debate tax policy by branding those he disagrees with as stupid, and using what are in fact Telegraph headlines as evidence.
Zia Yusuf@ZiaYusufUK
Responding to Dan Neidle: I’ve been doing media all day so only now getting around to responding to his drivel. Far left political activists like Dan are being held up as 'economic experts' by the MSM and poisoning the discourse in this country, so they do need to be rebutted. The fact he published his long thread before our 12 page policy document had even been published is a clue that this was not a dispassionate economic assessment, but naked political activism. 🧵
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@RoseWorthesee @ElectionMapsUK Only formally as the Social Justice Party had not yet been registered by the Electoral Commission but he ran as it.
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@DrEvanHarris @ElectionMapsUK No Randerson was elected as an independent.
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Eastfield (North Yorkshire) Council By-Election Result:
➡️ RFM: 62.7% (New)
🌹 LAB: 14.1% (-1.6)
⚖️ SJP: 13.8% (New)
🌳 CON: 4.7% (-1.8)
🔶 LDM: 2.8% (-23.3)
🌍 GRN: 2.0% (+0.2)
No Inds (-46.4, -3.6) as previous.
Reform GAIN from Independent.
Changes w/ 2023.
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@murn1 @ElectionMapsUK No, it is run by the AV system, so she received over 50% of the transferred votes after the sequential elimination of the "{also-rans"
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@ElectionMapsUK Must be one of the lowest ever vote shares for a winning candidate ?
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Eilean a' Cheò (Highland) Council By-Election Result [1st Prefs]:
🙋 Ind: 23.5% (New)
🔸 LDM: 21.5% (+18.0)
🙋 Ind: 18.7% (New)
🎗️ SNP: 15.0% (-7.5)
🙋 Ind: 7.3%
🌍 GRN: 6.8% (New)
➡️ RFM: 4.5% (New)
🌳 CON: 2.5% (-8.3)
No LAB (3.5), ALBA, 4x Inds.
Ind (Gillies) Elected Stage 8.
Independent GAIN from Independent.
Changes w/ 2022.
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@BritainElects So the LibDems had ZERO votes last time. I think you should check your working
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❗ Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative
Ashford Town (Spelthorne) council by-election result:
LDEM: 33.6% (+33.6)
REF: 28.6% (+28.6)
CON: 23.3% (-0.9)
LAB: 14.6% (-6.6)
No Grn (-25.1) Ind (-29.6) as prev.
Prev Con candidate was second-placed winner of a three-member ward.
+/- 2023
Estimated turnout: ~27% (-19)
andrewteale.me.uk/previews
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These results are wrong - there was an Ashford Independent this time and last time (and at the intervening by-election which should be the reference point perhaps - where Reform also stood). The correct result is here x.com/ElectionMapsUK… (though the 4th placed Ind is the same group as the Ind who stood previously)
Election Maps UK@ElectionMapsUK
Ashford Town (Spelthorne) Council By-Election Result: 🔶 LDM: 27.4% (New) ➡️ RFM: 23.4% (+21.0) 🌳 CON: 19.0% (-18.4) 🙋 Ind: 18.3% (New) 🌹 LAB: 11.9% (-2.2) No GRN (-16.8), Ind (-28.0), TUSC (-1.3). Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative. Changes w/ 2023.
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@LeeHurstComic eh? Its not a good point anyway, but you mean Lib Dem not Labour.
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Tory voters. Reform is not going away. You either switch to Reform or you continue to get Labour.
Time to wake up.
Election Maps UK@ElectionMapsUK
Ashford Town (Spelthorne) Council By-Election Result: 🔶 LDM: 27.4% (New) ➡️ RFM: 23.4% (+21.0) 🌳 CON: 19.0% (-18.4) 🙋 Ind: 18.3% (New) 🌹 LAB: 11.9% (-2.2) No GRN (-16.8), Ind (-28.0), TUSC (-1.3). Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative. Changes w/ 2023.
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@ElectionMapsUK It would be better to describe the 4th placed Ind as down -9.7%, and not claim there was "no Ind" because the Ind was from same the group of "Ashford Independents" as the previous one.
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Ashford Town (Spelthorne) Council By-Election Result:
🔶 LDM: 27.4% (New)
➡️ RFM: 23.4% (+21.0)
🌳 CON: 19.0% (-18.4)
🙋 Ind: 18.3% (New)
🌹 LAB: 11.9% (-2.2)
No GRN (-16.8), Ind (-28.0), TUSC (-1.3).
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
Changes w/ 2023.
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Dr Evan Harris retweetledi
Despite the best efforts of Fiona Bruce to ruin it, this is quite a civilised discussion on #bbcqt
Perhaps it's because it's not crammed with their usual despicable crackpot chums from Tufton Street. Tory shitrags or Deform Ltd.
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@ALDC Actually compared to Sept 2023 by-election in this ward
🔶 LD - Greg Neall - 539 - 27.4% - (New)
➡️ RFM - 459 - 23.4% - (+21.1%))
🔵 Con - 374 - 19.0% - (-8.4%)
⚪️ INDY - 359 - 18.3% (-6.4%)
🔴 LAB - 234 - 11.9% - (-2.4%)
No Green (-16.8%) or TUSC (1.2%) as before
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@councilsUK @seftoncouncil Fair enough, but the description is not as informative as it could be. "Ind held (elected as Lab)" - those three words provide a lot of context!
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@DrEvanHarris @seftoncouncil We're always interested in any changes of composition, not electoral preferences. In this case the previous councillor left the Labour Party in April 2024 so spent over a year as an Independent
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The polls are closed in six byelections. Four count tonight: a Conservative seat in @spelthornecouncil Ashford Town, Labour-held Adur district council Buckingham ward, Independent held @seftoncouncil Blundellsands ward, and @northyorksc Eastfield (held by Social Justice Party)
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