Dr. Roger

@seth_fin Beware the Chinese esports teams

This will be the future Tier 1 operator, SOCOM JSOC.

@SantiagoAuFund @ErikSTownsend @anasalhajji @Rory_Johnston @MacroVoices @izakaminska The US Gov probably doesn’t mind higher oil prices as long as China is disproportionally affected

@ErikSTownsend @anasalhajji @Rory_Johnston @MacroVoices @izakaminska What if “they” (those with the plan) and not “he” (who just might be the one guy crazy enough to try it), don’t actually think it will lead low oil in the U.S. and high oil elsewhere, but rather higher energy prices everywhere, with the U.S. better able to navigate the chaos?

Friday Night Iran/Crude/Macro Musings: As I reflect on my recent interviews with @anasalhajji and @Rory_Johnston on @MacroVoices and @izakaminska's several excellent posts this week, I'm focused on Dr. Anas' rhetorical question: Considering Trump has been obsessed with LOWER oil prices since his early 20s, why does he seem unconcerned now? I fear his Truth Social post quoted below reveals the answer: What if the President didn't get the "crude quality matters" memo, and thinks that he can create an intentionally bifurcated global energy economy in which oil prices are very low in USA thanks to the "energy independence" he perceives USA to possess, but very high elsewhere because (according to the President) other nations failed to step up to his call for action? What if the President intends to just walk away from the mess he just made in the middle-east, pull the US out of NATO by executive order, and then outlaw all export of crude and finished products from USA to other countries, thinking the result will be low energy prices in USA despite a completely out-of-control energy situation crippling the rest of the global economy? What if he thinks that flavor of "America First" policy will resonate with his base, and assure a red sweep in the mid-term elections because by November, he thinks USA will have $50 crude oil prices while the rest of the world has $150 crude oil? To fend off the inevitable avalance of replies that begin with "markets don't work that way you idiot...", let me be clear: I am not for one instant suggesting that this is a viable strategy or that it's even remotely possible for it to work. I'm merely suggesting that the preponderance of evidence (particularly, the Truth Social post below) seems to support the conclusion that THE PRESIDENT might believe this is a viable and desirable strategy to pursue. And that it may have been his plan all along. The reasons it could never work should be obvious so I won't waste any words on them. My point is that the circumstantial evidence strongly supports the hypothesis that this could be the President's plan: To put "America First" by screwing up energy logistics for the rest of the world and then citing "Hey, I asked them to come help and they refused, so they get what they deserve!" as the rationale for not caring about the outcome for the rest of the planet. What if the President sincerely believes such a strategy could deliver sub-$2 gasoline prices for USA by November, and a massive "competitive advantage" for USA in the global economy because his America First policies gave USA much lower energy prices than the rest of the world? I'm sure I'll be called a wild-eyed conspiracy theorist for posting this, so let me be clear: I'm not saying this is fact. All I'm saying is that the POSSIBILITY this MIGHT be the President's intentional strategy seems to jibe with the circumstantial evidence, and that scares the living crap out of me.

@ChartNerdTA What about breakdown to sub $1.20?

$XRP Approaching Ascending Support

@matthughes13 Giant cup and handle backtest? Or is there some rule that says it doesn’t work like that?

Last I checked, flipping the 200-week EMA from resistance back to support isnt bearish 200 week EMA sits at 68330 now $BTC x.com/matthughes13/s…

@NassimHaramein Gnarly

Every proton is a hologram of the entire universe. Not poetically. Quantitatively. Haramein’s generalized holographic solution: each proton is a micro–black hole with ~10⁶⁰ Planck units of information and ~10⁴⁰ wormhole connections. One step: 10⁸⁰ protons — the observable universe. Mass = emergent bandwidth limit. spacefed.com/astronomy/an-e…

@ColinTCrypto @CryptoGodJohn What if you measure from Jul/Aug 2025? Oct was more of a fakeout than anything else

@CryptoGodJohn Unlikely, but nothing is zero probability. x.com/ColinTCrypto/s…

What if $60k was this cycles bear market low I don’t think enough people are considering this a possibility

Buckle up buttercup

@beffjezos Beware the Chinese esports teams

Palantir turned waging warfare into playing a StarCraft-like game TFW you realize years of gaming actually was training for next-gen warfighting 😳

@lalovestrump It’s a smart strategy. CA will never elect a full MAGA candidate. He’s playing to win

Personally I think that Bianco’s November 2025 interview with “Pastura Films” is a huge liability in the general I’m sure many voters haven’t seen it especially those that aren’t on X everyday like me … I haven’t seen a single Republican voice this idea in 2026 .. I’ll still vote Chad if he wins the primary but he f’ed up big time here and I don’t know who is advising him .. if anyone … And no I don’t make a penny from Steve Hilton or anyone like some clowns 🤡 claim I didn’t even state my preference on the candidates until recently ..

@Kiradavis Not bad strategy. CA will never elect a full MAGA candidate

Chad Bianco is running for CA Governor as a Republican. And, as a Republican, he is asking for a 'path to amnesty' for illegals. "Secure our borders...don't let it happen again and now we have to give a path to citizenship." This is not the moment we are in. Chad must drop out

@SantiagoAuFund Change is the only constant

Two of my favorite movie quotes. And they could not be more diametrically opposed. "There is a natural order to this world, and those who try to upend it do not fare well.” “Nothing is Written…”

This post rests on an assumption: that a political intention can summon an industrial reality. That’s what’s been wrong with the whole net zero idea from the outset. It’s not that it’s a bad idea. It’s worse than that. It’s impossible to Implement but the advocates don’t understand why. They don’t even understand themselves what they suggest isn’t possible . EV are presented as a substitute for oil dependence, yet substitution in a modern economy can’t occur through decree or preference. It occurs through the slow construction of an entire material order , an industrial metabolism . Transport systems are not ideas; they are physical arrangements of mines, refineries, power plants, grids, factories, ports and logistics networks. Oil mobility rests on a century of accumulated infrastructure. Wells, pipelines, supertankers, refineries, storage terminals and filling stations form a coherent global system. Every litre of fuel moves through this structure with extraordinary efficiency. It exists because the industrial world spent generations building it. Electrified transport requires a different structure entirely. Motors require copper and rare earth magnets. Batteries require lithium, nickel, cobalt and graphite. Vehicles must be supported by generation capacity, transmission networks, local distribution upgrades and charging infrastructure. Each component depends on its own upstream chain of extraction, refining and manufacturing. Yeah, we have a political & academic class who completely ignore what’s possible. Industrial capacity isn’t presently configured at the scale required. Mines for critical minerals take many years to permit and build. Refining capacity for many of these materials is concentrated in a handful of countries. Grid expansion in advanced economies already moves slowly, constrained by land, regulation and capital. The result is a tension between two forms of reasoning. The academic argument proceeds normatively: if oil dependence creates geopolitical risk, states should accelerate electrification. The industrial reality proceeds materially: systems change only when the physical apparatus required for change exists. Modern political debate often confuses intention with capacity. Policies can alter incentives and prices, but they cannot compress geological discovery, mine construction, metallurgical processing and grid expansion into the span of a policy cycle. In this sense the Strait of Hormuz crisis reveals something deeper than energy vulnerability. It reveals the distance between a political program and the industrial foundations required to sustain it. It shows us the blindness caused by nested specialisation in academia . Islands of ideas that collapse when exposed to reality . These ideas propose solutions that have no executable pathways .

@SantiagoAuFund @TMTLongShort But I thought Iran had unlimited resources while the US military’s resources were dwindling

@TMTLongShort Also, the US has no idea where these drone producing facilities and the supply chains feeding these facilities are currently working efficiently.

Beware people saying retarded shit using smart-looking models. It’s like the junior analyst who puts together a 3k line financial model and then inputs retarded assumptions resulting in a price target that is higher than global GDP in the out-years 😉

@Cobb_XRPL @grok “Nah fam” - Grok

yo @grok is this oil supply shock somehow good for my XRP bags

@elonmusk @ArthurMacwaters Chiropractors?

@ArthurMacwaters True

AI will replace 90%+ of all human work in healthcare and that will be a great thing.

@EnergyAntonio US Inflicting worldwide economic damage is okay as long as it disproportionally affects China

Iran is about China, but not in the childish “cut off one supplier and Beijing collapses” sense. It is about engineered scarcity. If this thesis is right, Washington is not stumbling into Middle Eastern chaos. It is accepting, and perhaps courting, a world of higher energy prices, higher fertilizer prices, disrupted shipping, and recessionary pressure because the United States is one of the few powers positioned to survive that environment better than its rivals. Yes, the Gulf Arabs will resent it. Yes, Europe will hate it. Yes, global growth will get smashed and Russia will benefit at the margin. None of that disproves the logic. The point is relative leverage, not universal prosperity. If Hormuz is compromised and Iranian production is damaged, Asia’s import-dependent economies become more desperate for substitute barrels, maritime protection, and reliable trade corridors. Energy security stops being an abstract macro variable and becomes a weapon. So does shipping security. So does fertilizer. So does food. That is where the real pressure on China comes in. Not because China cannot physically keep people alive on bare caloric minimums, but because regime stability is not built on subsistence rice. It is built on a population, especially an urban and coastal middle class, accustomed to rising living standards, protein consumption, consumer abundance, and the implicit promise that the Party can keep delivering all of it. Strip out reliable imports of feed, soy, meat inputs, and energy, and the issue is not mass starvation. The issue is degradation. Scarcity. Inflation. Friction. A slow reduction in the standard of life that underwrites consent. And in that world, food exporters and energy exporters hold the knife. The United States sits on both. Brazil matters too, but Brazil is not untouchable in a truly gloves-off contest. So the thesis is not that Iran is a sideshow. It is that Iran is the mechanism: the pressure point through which Washington can raise the cost of modern life for everyone, then exploit the fact that America remains one of the last major powers with the resource base to feed, fuel, and protect the system everyone else still depends on. That is why, under this view, the chaos is not a policy failure. It is the policy. Or, our ruling class is retarded and didn’t think this through at all. Coin toss.

@BCBacker @ludnlxrp So Near term, stocks fall, crypto dips but hold up relatively well then recover faster ?

How do you know this has been a bear market vs just a standard correction? On-chain losses give us a good clue about bear markets. And, we're acting like normal bears. The good news is that as you get to these levels where more coins are in a loss, accumulations begin to form.

@ArmstrongEcon Wouldn’t that negatively affect China’s energy supply even more than the US? I think US is willing to choke trade as long as it negatively effects China more

What victory means for Iran, and why this will be a prolonged war: - They cannot defeat the US or Israel - they know it. - Their goal is NOT to win, but to make the cost unbearable. - Attacking Gulf oil facilities hurts the West far more than attacking Israel. - Keep ships in ports, choke trade - that is a win.

@ctindale @the_growler_man Weren’t the current borders heavily defined by the British Empire? Kurds and Azerbaijanis aren’t even Persian

@the_growler_man something is going to happen edition.cnn.com/2026/03/03/pol…

"they've" always promoted similar for Russia. How's that working out for "them"?

@Pred_History @KingKong9888 @xueqinjiang Never trust someone that closes their eyes when they finish sentences

The Iranians have announced total war, which means command and control are decentralized. #PredictiveHistory | @xueqinjiang