
Technology then and present
CCRider
199K posts

@ES03784893
Angry Anonymous Poster - Armed with Keyboard and Verbally Dangerous - Arrest Photo Above

Technology then and present


There has been alot of chatter the last day or so in regards to the @sffed working paper by Régis Barnichon analyzing Tariff Shocks and using some new and novel approach to understand Tariff shocks. Media and "experts" on X have grasped onto "High Tariffs = lower inflation" while ignoring the cost in Lost employment and Contraction of Economical activity. While still long, I attempted to capture the main aspects to provide the context folks are either intentionally omitting or failing to understand. Page 14 clearly articulates a 4ppt increase in Tariffs may lower inflation by 2ppt, but it increases unemployment by 1ppt. Reading further into Page 15 & 16 they discuss and go on to test the theory that Higher Tariffs shocks lead to asset price dropping, which then depresses Aggregate Demand, which leads to higher unemployment but lower inflation. They go on to test, and explain results on Page 17. Results beginning on Page 17 showed that regardless of Sample Period. Evidence finds that a higher Tariff lowers stock market valuations & Raises stock Price volatility. Furthermore, after expanding the model into France and the UK to validate findings they concluded similar results using independent variations. In response to higher Tariffs, inflation declines and Economic activity contracts On page 18 & 19 we have the conclusions. Using 150 years of America Tariff Policy and Abroad to estimate short-run effects on Tariff shocks on Macro Aggregates they found convincing evidence to support that Tariff hikes RAISE unemployment LOWERS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, while also lowering CPI inflation. Going back to Page 14 of the report. We recall that every 4ppt of Tariffs result in 1ppt of unemployment which results in decreased economical activity. But how much would that be based on the Aug 2025 Unemployment report? Average Tariffs went from 2.4% at the end of 2024 to 13.1% as of Oct 2025. That is a 10.7ppt increase, which would result in roughly a 2.68% increase in unemployment. Putting us up to 6.98% unemployment potentially. That would raise our unemployment from 7.4 million to 11.9 million Americans. Considering we can already see the labor cuts and shrinkage, that is a strong possibility already. To Regis, I would provide proper and full links, but I could only find your employers handle and didn't feel you would want me to ping your different fellowships etc. So much respect to the work, it was a fantastic read I highly recommend everyone go through if they have interest in these matters. Régis Barnichon From @sffed working report & analysis on Tariff Shock: frbsf.org/wp-content/upl… BLS Situation: bls.gov/news.release/p…



Nick Fuentes says that America is "n*gger hell," then realizes he probably shouldn't have said that while wearing a James Fishback for Governor quarter zip: "My apologies to the campaign."





Israel to pour $730,000,000 into propaganda arm amid reputational crisis "First reported by The Jerusalem Post, a total of $730 M has been allocated to the national public diplomacy directorate, known by its Hebrew name Hasbara, which oversees Israeli propaganda." "The figure marks a sharp increase from the $150 M set aside the previous year, which had already surged to roughly 20 times pre-2023 levels." israelpalestinenews.org/growing-dissen…











🚨BREAKING: On behalf of the National Council of Jewish Women and voters, my law firm has sued Governor Jeff Landry (R) and Secretary of State Nancy Landry (R), challenging the state’s decision to suspend the 2026 congressional primary elections. democracydocket.com/cases/louisian…

Bravo to @hannah_natanson, whose Pulitzer Prize reporting overcame an outrageous and chilling FBI raid on her home, a threat to journalism in this country