@Rocksidevilla @vali_nasr @AliVaez @FT Obviously yes.
All GCC hydrocarbon infrastructure will be destroyed and possibly desalination plants.
You do recall that it is not only the US that can inflict physical and economic harm.
English
ebipere
920 posts
ebipere
@ebipere
Paddle sought, will pay handsomely #ElectroYuan #ExergyTransition #DualTransition
Katılım Eylül 2009
461 Takip Edilen100 Takipçiler
@vali_nasr @AliVaez @FT Rather confusing! Does the current state of affairs deter the US from mowing the lawn 🤔
English
My piece in @FT on why Iran has been reluctant to sign on to the MoU agreement and why the agreement is not likely to easily lead to a larger deal in 30 or 60 days:
"The dominant view shared across the political spectrum in Tehran is that, given Trump’s record, the promise of diplomacy could actually raise the threat of war. Washington’s seemingly generous concessions are interpreted as too good to be true. Tehran suspects that the US seeks not a lasting peace but a free hand to keep Iran isolated and weak, checking its nuclear and missile activities by periodically “mowing the lawn”. Faced with such a prospect, deterrence is all that matters.
Iranian leaders talk of control of the Strait of Hormuz and maintaining Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium as the key to deterrence. They believe any durable deal that includes economic compensation for war damage and lasting sanctions relief would hinge on these two issues; the US is demanding that Iran concede on both. This makes striking a lasting deal highly unlikely."👇🏽
ft.com/content/6ccf1b…
English
The “Peter Thiel is fleeing America” story is so unserious. Fleeing what? His protégé is vice president, his companies feed on government contracts, and his politics are already sitting in the room.
This is not a man running from the state; this is a man shopping for the next state to optimize.
Call it what it is: post-democracy expansion.
English
@JavierBlas @zerohedge Iran should simply say that they will sign
- the Obama’s deal (and call it that),
- implement navigation support via Hormuz,
- demand a restitution fund for damages, plus
- build a Trump hotel at Hormuz under license and run by the IRGC
English
From what multiple Trump administration accounts are focusing on and re-posting, the White House is going to try to sell the deal on a single point: "Iran must agree that they will never have a nuclear weapon."
(Which was point "iii" of the JCPOA's Preamble: "... Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop or acquire any nuclear weapons...")
English
@D162Michele Americans are “less allergic” to alcohol so you can’t tell they have been drinking until they talk.
English
The NDRC has made some pretty outstanding calls.
The one that gets me is the Circular Economy Policy from pre-2007 that demanded recycling to be designed and waste managementbrva design issue to processes going forward. Recycling will be a major source of critical minerals.
They have understood the size and scale of their country as the anchor impetus for their own and international trade and development.
Supposedly it is less visionary these days.
English
This is partly correct. But the manner in which the CPC operates goes beyond capitalist logic, and in fact draws deliberately on models of central planning. It's important not to gloss over this fact.
State ownership in key sectors, heavy control over the financial sector, public ownership of land, formal limits to the political power of the capitalist class, and five-year plans — all of these point to a system drawing on Marxism and Leninism.
It is, of course, no coincidence that the ruling party is called the Communist Party of China and that they refer to its economy as a "socialist market economy."
Dwarkesh Patel@dwarkesh_sp
The CCP is more like a VC fund than a traditional central planner. Arthur Kroeber argues this is how China has succeeded, gaining massive dominance in industrial manufacturing, and sidestepping the traditional failure modes of centrally planned economies. The CCP supports broad sectors rather than single nationalised firms, and encourages ruthless competition in those sectors. Even though the CCP knows that competition will cause state-supported firms to fail, it believes that a few winners will make up for the failures.
English
It sets a dangerous global precedent if Iran can close the Strait of Hormuz and force the world to negotiate for access. These are international waterways, treating them like geopolitical “light switches” would have lasting economic and strategic consequences worldwide.
pbs.org/newshour/show/…
English
"The Iranians will control the Strait of Hormuz for the foreseeable future," says Fmr. White House Senior Advisor @amoshochstein. "It doesn't even matter what the deal says, and everybody in the region believes that." cnb.cx/4e9E4Pb
English
@AJENews @AJEnglish This is exactly what happened with China.
How do you expect to be treated as negotiating in good faith.
English
BREAKING: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says in a post on X that the US will shut down Iranian airlines’ access to landing spots, refuelling and ticket sales.
🔴 More on Aljazeera.com
English
My latest for Bloomberg: "We are about to see the Great Clean Energy Acceleration 2.0 – a discontinuity in energy markets as profound as the oil shocks of the 1970s, and one that could bring forward peak fossil fuel use and emissions to this side of 2030." about.bnef.com/insights/clean…
English
Clean energy is no longer just about climate - it’s about economics, security and industrial strategy. @MLiebreich's “Great Clean Energy Acceleration 2.0” piece for @BloombergNEF explains why the transition is now unstoppable, despite the noise.
about.bnef.com/insights/clean…
English
If true (and things in the press should be taken with grains of salt), this one customer was reported as $6b of ARR for OAI/Anthropic ($500m*12) the month this happened.
For reference, that is larger than (checks notes) yup, Snowflake's run-rate revenue as of Q1.
😳
English
A 60-day MoU on the Strait of Hormuz is non-binding by definition.
The one being reported is also unsigned.
Through that strait moves roughly 20% of global oil. The governance instrument currently managing that risk is a document that does not legally exist yet.
Oil importers — carrying that exposure with no hedging buffer — are not waiting on a negotiation. They are waiting on a basic act of institutional commitment that two governments have not yet performed.
An MoU is intent. A signed agreement is a commitment.
What we have today is neither.
This is BigMan Performative Politics
Axios@axios
Scoop: U.S. and Iran reach deal but need Trump's final approval, officials say axios.com/2026/05/28/ira…
English
Chinese Energy Infrastructure Growth - the crazy numbers are yet to come.
This energy transition is different on two levels that compound each other: what energy physically is, and how it gets financed.
The physical difference is categorical. It is an exergy transition - like going from biological food to chemical fuels energy systems. There will be order of magnitude changes in energy efficiency” as we are changing the engine this time and not just the fuel. Coal→ Oil→ Gas is combustion optimisation better fuels. Solar and wind no wasteful conversion, the entropy profile changes fundamentally. This is the EMBER point – the quality of end energy availability is two-to-threefold. The equivalent to moving from horses to engines for mechanical work
The financing difference is underappreciated: the unit price of energy generation will collapse and quantities consumed will balloon. Think about the marginal calorie in a hunting society vs farming society. Hunting is opex/ income statement. Farming is capex/ balance sheet. So is electrotech.
As the world replaces hydrocarbons with electrotech, the entire structure of both the physics and the financing of energy changes.
China understood this and responded with industrial policy: build the manufacturing, drop the cost, build more – rinse and repeat. Tariffs are the subscription world defending itself against the capex world. China's grid will continue to grow even as it decelerates on a percentage basis, because that is what the cost structure of constructing it requires.
The real bizarre numbers are still coming. China may still drift towards ZIRP.
End energy availability will rise; marginal energy cost will collapse. We are going from hunting on horseback to farming with machines simultaneously in a single transition
We grew agriculture to feed ourselves and our animals. The machines that cheap abundant energy will feed do not exist yet because the energy that would make them possible doesn't exist yet either.
English
Absolutely, but it is more. There is an engineering
The key that gets me is that the PRC keeps the hydrocarbon-to-transportation_fuel path sacrosanct and "plays around" with:
- their hydrocarbon supply chains (Russia and optional deliveries with non gulf crude and gas, domestic coal stockpiles) and
- their hydrocarbon value chains ( Carbon2Chemicals, Carbon2Industry, Carbon2Feedstocks)
It's a form of "hydrocarbon matrix management"
inputs.[PRC_Matrix] = outputs;
the PRC_Matrix is their supply chain and domestic production overlayed with their value chains that gives their outputs
They do demand management and export controls first,
Then the matrix management,
Then and only then the Stockpiles,
English
@ebipere @OxfordEnergy Fascinating piece. Nutshell: PRC has created coal->gas production with high reserve capacity, but at a cost. Willingness to accept the cost gives flexibility. RU oil floating on water in this case was to PRC benefit; PRC traders played well with oil + LNG!
English
China's crude stockpiles didn't move during the Hormuz crisis.
Not weakness. Architecture.
Gas → Coal → Yield shifts → Export controls → Price caps
Reserves last. Always.
The Oxford Institute (@oxfordenergy) just confirmed a framework I published in March without knowing it existed.
Stockpiles & Reserves, Supply-Chain Diversity, Value-Chain Optionality, Demand Management
Full piece: open.substack.com/pub/ebipere/p/…
@Mauerback @blanx500 @Phillyvol85 @sweet_est_pea
@FrenchTwist4 @noah_gordon_ @70sBachchan
English
This keys into my thoughts.
The West is less worried about retribution than irrelevance.
After being the centre of attention, indifference stings more than insult.
🔪 American McGee 🖤@americanmcgee
Having lived in China 20+ years and watched them gain competence and then utter domination over so many aspects of tech, design, entertainment, finance, etc - and then look at how poorly they manage external perceptions (call it PR or propaganda or whatever)... And you realize they aren't even trying to convince the world outside of how great things are here. Meanwhile the US dedicates 1.3 BILLION USD to convincing people how terrible China is? All I know is it's going to be a very rude awakening for a lot of people when the curtains finally open.
English
@americanmcgee This keys into my thoughts.
The West is less worried about retribution than irrelevance.
After being the centre of attention, indifference stings more than insult.
English
Having lived in China 20+ years and watched them gain competence and then utter domination over so many aspects of tech, design, entertainment, finance, etc - and then look at how poorly they manage external perceptions (call it PR or propaganda or whatever)...
And you realize they aren't even trying to convince the world outside of how great things are here. Meanwhile the US dedicates 1.3 BILLION USD to convincing people how terrible China is?
All I know is it's going to be a very rude awakening for a lot of people when the curtains finally open.
English
@ChinaPowerCSIS I hope that does not mean diabetes and other health issues!
English
China’s per capita income has been rising faster than its food costs, as shown by the growing share of Chinese people that can afford a healthy diet despite increases in food costs. Learn more about China’s food security strengths here: buff.ly/ehE117j
English